so FL numbers I am watching nervously as they haven't crept back up significantly yet but if they do, I fear a return to the horrific summer totals we endured earlier with little to no closures by Desantis (other than like...bars only, which he did last time)
― eat my room temperature ass (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 21 October 2020 22:05 (three years ago) link
kind of what drives me nuts about some fellow COVID trial participants I know who are bragging about how they're gonna go back to livin' it up after they get stuck. a) you don't know if you're getting the vax or the placebo and b) you have no idea what level of protection you will get, if any, if you do get the vax
if the vaccine reaches the minimum threshold for effectiveness the FDA is going to require for approval (50%) and there's two treatments in the trial, there's a 75% chance they have no immunity!
(same calculation tells you why a vaccine isn't going to change things quickly: it's effective ~half the time, and only about half of americans are going to get it, so it's going to take us from ~5% population immunity to ... 30%? a big jump that will save lives, but nowhere near the levels required for herd immunity.)
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 21 October 2020 22:41 (three years ago) link
yeah I think I read the article that stated that, as well as this one: https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/10/19/a-covid-19-vaccine-wont-mean-a-swift-end-for-wearing-masks-or-social-distancing/
my hope has been dwindling as a result
― eat my room temperature ass (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 21 October 2020 22:53 (three years ago) link
Boston-area COVID (as-measured-by-poop-sampling) numbers just went exponential: pic.twitter.com/D4Gpvlar1g— Itamar Turner-Trauring (@itamarst) October 21, 2020
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 21 October 2020 22:57 (three years ago) link
*throws "(Welcome Home) Sanitarium" on repeat*
― eat my room temperature ass (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 21 October 2020 22:59 (three years ago) link
I'm so glad I got my medical marijuana card, y'all. I'm going to be spending a lot of time this winter getting high as giraffe balls and writing weird poetry
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Thursday, 22 October 2020 22:10 (three years ago) link
I mean, given these numbers, that's what I see in my future
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Thursday, 22 October 2020 22:11 (three years ago) link
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Thursday, October 22, 2020 5:10 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
"ppl who have figured out how to live" thread
― cointelamateur (m bison), Thursday, 22 October 2020 23:32 (three years ago) link
So much we don't know..
The Czech death rate at the moment is really astonishing - twice as high per capita as basically anywhere else in Europe. Not yet ofc at the double-figure levels in the worst-affected countries in March/April. pic.twitter.com/2Od55bBpAg— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) October 23, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 23 October 2020 09:32 (three years ago) link
they had this really smug video back in April about how low their rates were because of mandatory mask wearing
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Friday, 23 October 2020 09:34 (three years ago) link
It's a mystery though. Does it mean that masks don't work? I'd say it needs more reporting but every now and then you get the sense everyone is fumbling around in the dark.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 23 October 2020 10:19 (three years ago) link
The government stopped enforcing the rules ahead of the election.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Friday, 23 October 2020 10:20 (three years ago) link
Lol it's just horrible but hope it worked out for them.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 23 October 2020 10:22 (three years ago) link
The UK data from yesterday looks very concerning, unless there's a quirk in the way it's being reported. New cases up about 10% on this time last week but hospitalisations up nearly 50%.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Friday, 23 October 2020 10:24 (three years ago) link
In France too the data is bad. 40000+ new cases yesterday. So far hospitalisations remain relatively low but there's been a point of inflection upward there too. Many new départements were put under curfew starting Saturday, and more are expected to be added next week. There's also talk of extending our curfew in Paris to 7pm, rather than 9pm as it is now. So far that's just rumor though.
― All cars are bad (Euler), Friday, 23 October 2020 10:52 (three years ago) link
Hospitalisations tend to lag cases by a couple of weeks at least so I'd expect that curve to go up even further. Probably also a result of the virus crossing over from younger, and more socially active people, into more vulnerable groups as well.
I no longer have any idea where this ends.
― Matt DC, Friday, 23 October 2020 11:00 (three years ago) link
I'd say it needs more reporting but every now and then you get the sense everyone is fumbling around in the dark
The scary scenario is that a lot of this might be down to sheer luck. Super-spreader events have a really disproportionate impact on progression, and there was a Tufecki article recently positing that they might explain the dramatic differences between areas in Italy, for example. It could be that sheer bad luck meant some bad outbreaks blew past the first-line Czech protections and they didn't have a second-line ready and now it's out of control.
― stet, Friday, 23 October 2020 11:27 (three years ago) link
I'm no expert but my sense is that masks help, especially when combined with social distancing and particularly partial lockdowns (no indoor bars, restaurants, or schools). See what NY and Italy did. The second you open up, no amount of mask wearing alone is going to stem the tide (though please wear masks).
― He was very mean to Mr. Chamillionaire (PBKR), Friday, 23 October 2020 12:02 (three years ago) link
New cases up about 10% on this time last week but hospitalisations up nearly 50%.
I think this means testing is levelling out but no-ome told the virus.
― here we go, ten in a rona (onimo), Friday, 23 October 2020 15:03 (three years ago) link
The virus is much more widespread and firmly entrenched in all populations around the globe today than it was in April. In the USA, for example, the interior of the continent had not yet seen any major outbreaks and populations were mostly virus-free. Now 99% of the USA population is probably living, working and breathing within a couple of miles of someone who is currently infectious.
Much as we'd prefer not to admit it, we're still in the stage where all that can be done is to flatten the curve and wait for new tools to arrive. The best way to flatten the curve is to do what we all knew to do in early April: limit social contacts as much as humanly possible, wash your hands, wear a mask, create a 'safe' bubble in your living space and be aware of whatever enters it from the outside. And with the virus so widespread, it is even more important now than it was in April.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Friday, 23 October 2020 18:14 (three years ago) link
Aimless, we agree!
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Friday, 23 October 2020 23:23 (three years ago) link
Plus governments need to develop robust test and tra- oh.
― logout option: disabled (Matt #2), Friday, 23 October 2020 23:29 (three years ago) link
I was jarred reading aimless's post because I think it has been months since I heard anyone use the phrase 'flatten the curve'. It's fucked up how, in the uk at least, the conversation has changed so much even tho the situation and our understanding of it really haven't (not to anything like the same degree anyway). Like the need for a second lockdown in the winter to pinch off cases in time for flu season was a given IN MARCH, and yet it feels so much like everyone is arguing from some earlier prelapsarian point before we knew anything about anything. All this pissing around with tier 2.5 local lockdown when our tracing system has imploded just reinforces something someone said a while ago: we've just given up here. It's dispiriting.
― Gab B. Nebsit (wins), Saturday, 24 October 2020 13:35 (three years ago) link
It really is.I was expecting a more coherent and consistent testing system by now, back in the Spring.This was initially spreading because we don't know who has it - it's now spreading partly because even if you think there might be a possibility of you having it there aren't many incentives in place to do the right thing if this inconveniences/impoverishes you.
― kinder, Saturday, 24 October 2020 14:24 (three years ago) link
Cases per million people in the Midwest have surpassed both the early peak in the Northeast and the summer surge in the South. pic.twitter.com/MiHF4GBu9o— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) October 24, 2020
― president of my cat (Karl Malone), Sunday, 25 October 2020 00:22 (three years ago) link
Ohio has a set a daily record for new cases everyday this week.
― a certain derecho (brownie), Sunday, 25 October 2020 00:46 (three years ago) link
Holy shit that's some very frightening stuff.
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Sunday, 25 October 2020 01:25 (three years ago) link
Epidemiology twitter is starting to make noise that if an infection gets wildly uncontrolled then vaccines aren't much use, which is a frightening scenario.
― stet, Sunday, 25 October 2020 14:02 (three years ago) link
MEADOWS: We're not going to control the pandemicTAPPER: Why not?M: Because it's a contagious virusT: Why not make efforts to contain it?M: What we need to do is make sure we have the proper mitigation factors to make sure people don't die pic.twitter.com/0DYgk4rB3T— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2020
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Sunday, 25 October 2020 14:10 (three years ago) link
Ghouls.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 25 October 2020 14:15 (three years ago) link
If it was a bacterial infection, we'd be all over this shit like 99 clowns in a tiny car
― Neanderthal, Sunday, 25 October 2020 14:28 (three years ago) link
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 25 October 2020 19:09 (three years ago) link
where community spread is high and vaccination efficacy is low
If it is true that the FDA plans certify any vaccine where trials show it is more than 50% effective, then that could be exactly where we end up.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Sunday, 25 October 2020 19:21 (three years ago) link
It is exactly where we’re going to end up.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 25 October 2020 19:22 (three years ago) link
At warp speed.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Sunday, 25 October 2020 19:23 (three years ago) link
based on politics/distrust of science/jenny mccarthy, ~40% of the USA will probably not take any vaccine which will lead to a grim dystopia straight out of the late middle ages.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 25 October 2020 19:44 (three years ago) link
this seems good:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/magazine/covid-natural-experiments.html
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Sunday, 25 October 2020 22:01 (three years ago) link
Cool article!
― the colour out of space (is the place) (PBKR), Monday, 26 October 2020 12:49 (three years ago) link
✈️NEW flight report on corona transmission on flights:13 people appear to have been infected on a 7-hr flight to Ireland this summer, leading to 59 cases as passengers visited friends & family. The plane was at 17% capacity & required masks.https://t.co/7XrxTz5DRe pic.twitter.com/GhyHV1nGWR— Amy Maxmen (@amymaxmen) October 26, 2020
― mookieproof, Monday, 26 October 2020 19:59 (three years ago) link
that's freaky because the conventional wisdom = teh HEPA filters would filter the air which would probably protect those far away from infected cases, and usually those in the immediate rows around the infected were at higher risk, particularly if someone sneezed or wasn't wearing a mask, but there's a great degree of separation between the cases in the seats.
wonder if transmission was due to people unmasking to drink/eat for long periods of time, or from visiting the lavatory (either from fomites or coming in contact with someone leaving lavatory, etc).
serves as a reminder that air travel has risk too. I will admit to having taken a flight this year (I wore KN95 masks while I flew) but I wouldn't take a flight longer than 2 hours. probably won't do it at all ongoing tbh.
― Neanderthal, Monday, 26 October 2020 20:16 (three years ago) link
Every airplane seat already has those drop-down masks. Could we just make them mandatory for the whole flight, every flight?
― Fjord Explorer (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 26 October 2020 20:33 (three years ago) link
It may, of course, not be on the plane where transmission occurred.
A lot of standing in line at security, to board, immigration etc. The whole airport experience seems a recipe for transmission.
This study has been doing the rounds, seems to confirm that risk of airborne transmission from seated passengers is pretty unlikely, but it doesn’t account for the rest of the flying experience.
https://www.ustranscom.mil/cmd/docs/TRANSCOM%20Report%20Final.pdf
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Monday, 26 October 2020 20:43 (three years ago) link
In other news, shops, bars and restaurants will open in Melbourne tomorrow for the first time in nearly 3 months.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Monday, 26 October 2020 20:44 (three years ago) link
Jesus. Doctors in Liege with Covid asked to keep working if they have no symptoms to stop the hospital system collapsing https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54688846
― stet, Tuesday, 27 October 2020 00:00 (three years ago) link
OK I definitely don't want to catch Covid-19, I've decided:
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-brains/covids-cognitive-costs-some-patients-brains-may-age-10-years-idUSL8N2HI38G
― Alba, Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:04 (three years ago) link
Ugh, that's all I need. I already feel like Charlie in the back half of Flowers for Algernon.
― the colour out of space (is the place) (PBKR), Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:10 (three years ago) link
^think about this quite often
― Spiral "Scratch" Starecase (James Redd and the Blecchs), Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:15 (three years ago) link
One cognitive study isn't enough to establish very much, but it sure seems to indicate something.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:21 (three years ago) link
The Aimless of ten years ago would have explained that better.
― here we go, ten in a rona (onimo), Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:40 (three years ago) link
jibes with earlier anecdotal reportage of “brain fog”
― Gab B. Nebsit (wins), Tuesday, 27 October 2020 20:57 (three years ago) link