Trout Catches Salmon: What Next?

idk exactly what you mean by HOF defensive stats, but looking at CF JAWS . . . not really. even mays only did so until 35. kenny lofton was still at least average into his late 30s. lorenzo cain has played HOF defense through age 33. clemente did so (in RF) the whole way (through 37).

but that's just relying on b-ref's dWAR stats, so who knows really

man, kenny lofton really deserved better than getting dumped off his first ballot

Decline at a Pujols level seems inconceivable.

Did anybody predict Pujols' decline being as bad as it was though? Even the age-truthers weren't saying he would turn into a poor man's Joe Carter for a decade.

Barring something catastrophic like that, Trout's floor might be like Ken Griffey Jr second act -- a series of injuries, some good but not great partial seasons, and a gradual decline. And Griffey finished with 600 home runs and was a first ballot HOFer! IOW, Trout is pretty fucking great.

i don't think anyone predicted pujols. he was so dominant that you figured, well, maybe he loses power but can still command the zone and get hits, but it doesn't really work that way -- the edge great players have over average players doesn't seem to be as big as one would imagine.

but players developing catastrophic chronic injuries at 35 doesn't just happen to pujols or miggy -- it will come for everyone. who recently went out while still playing at a high level? i can think of beltre, who certainly had his share of injuries, and ortiz, who said he retired because he was in constant pain (and he didn't even have to play the field)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Intrigued by the one vote for #5...just can't envision anything that steep (conceding that no one really envisioned the magnitude of Pujol's decline, either).

probably morbs for daring us to consider such a thing during the Postseason

Is he one of the five best players in baseball right now? Honestly, I think he clearly isn't. Ohtani and Acuna at the top, then Betts, Judge, and Freeman. Judge has the same prone-to-injury issue, so I guess you could swap them out if you wanted to, but there are probably other players to consider too.

Still--remember that you read it here--I think he'll sneak into the HOF.

Judge

In 2023 Judge and Trout are tied at #33* in fWAR at 3.1 fwiw.

*along with Yandy Diaz, Bryson Stott, Nico Hoerner & Chas McCormick

Right, but I'm cutting him slack for having missed a lot of time...and thinking he's still more in his prime than Trout is. Basically, I'm going by the past four or five seasons.

They're both in their age-31 season--I guess it's easy to forget that Trout's still young (and Judge got a late start). I don't know: would the Yankees trade Judge straight up for Trout right now? Would you?

xp They're less than a year apart in age, yet both having trouble avoiding the IL which keeps luring them back making it a contest of health.

Here's bWAR for the five guys I listed, plus Trout, for 2018 (when Acuna and Ohtani break in) to today:

Betts -- 37.2
Ohtani -- 33.2
Judge - 31.9
Trout - 30.7
Freeman - 28.6
Acuna -- 23.4

So: you can certainly argue for Trout as belonging, if you believe he's better right now than Freeman or Acuna.

Using the OFF component (stripping away any DEF boosts/penalties which... don't get me started) of fWAR 2018-2023:

1 Freddie Freeman (33yo) 232.3
2 Mike Trout (32yo) 231.5
3 Mookie Betts (30yo) 220.4
4 Aaron Judge (31yo) 210.0
5 Juan Soto (24yo) 205.8

I could see Soto overtaking Judge this year into #4. Judge's battles with injuries are really sad, combined with the frustration of the Yankees kept him down in the minors for so many years.

(but absolutely should be noted that Trout has only played 563 games vs Judge's 607 during that selected date range!)

(and also that Acuna and Ohtani have both played more games than Judge or Trout for 2018-2023... mind blown).

I'm kind of willing to give trout the benefit of the doubt, last season over 162 games he would have wound up with somewhere around 8.5 bwar? I mean obviously this could be it as far as him being what he was, there is that weird mystery injury he was diagnosed with last season. But feel like we have to see what happens the rest of this season and into next.