"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I voted/posted my ballot today at the US Embassy drop box. Embassy Gardens is some next-level edge city.

srsly

Hopefully a Biden quote in the thread title is a good omen.

I actually think Biden needs to push the "if I'm president, you don't have to hear from this guy any more" angle harder

I need to go there to renew my iVisa once everything returns to something close to normal, and am dreading it. The old embassy was terrifying enough. xps

I liked the new embassy when I got a tour of the place last year. But I don't have to live with it.

I actually think Biden needs to push the "if I'm president, you don't have to hear from this guy any more" angle harder

it is 1000% the best (true) angle he's got

For Voters Still Mulling, One Thing Is Clear: That Debate Didn’t Help

A small but crucial segment of likely voters say they remain uncommitted — to a candidate or to voting at all — and nothing they heard on Tuesday clinched things for them.

via NYT article. who the fuck are these people?

narcissism

The kingmakers.

xp

they have been inspired by susan collins and are now emulating her methodology

HERE’S WHY I’M AN UNDECIDED VOTER pic.twitter.com/kg7GBwNpgn

— blaire erskine (@blaireerskine) September 30, 2020

Poll: Most voters didn’t enjoy Trump-Biden clash, say they should still keep debating

...wut

https://iep.utm.edu/derrida/#H5

Doesn't seem that weird to me. People have internalized that debates are a normal and necessary part of presidential elections. Even if they don't personally enjoy them, they may feel that canceling them would be undemocratic, or would have unexpected consequences.

Trump requires food aid boxes to come with a letter from him
The Agriculture Department last week began mandating that millions of boxes of surplus food for needy families include a letter from President Donald Trump claiming credit for the program...

Let them eat government cheese! If you don't vote for me.. no more food for you!

wasn't his $100 Medicare gift card tanked for basically this reason

The letter also mentions you should wash your hands, and stay home if you don't feel well. See, he's totally on it! The Churchill of Covid-19.

If you don't do any reporting, have never demonstrated any insight about politics, and don't even write particularly well, you'd think you could at the very least understand that 20% ≠ 0%. https://t.co/G1eONuBP1m

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 1, 2020

https://clickhole.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/dnmtn4ksijwyep0xmljk.jpg

I have no clue how the 538 model works but given Biden is ahead by more than the MOE in basically every swing state am I to assume that "Trump has no chance" would be true if the election were held TODAY?

In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.

that's from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/

I saw that CNN headline... such a bummer, laurel-resting is really not what we need right now.

Yeah, this made me tense up.

Seeing some chatter/ads on social media urging third party voting because Biden is ahead. Anyone looking into that? Feels like 2016.

— Melody Joy Kramer (@mkramer) October 1, 2020

To paraphrase Tommy Boy, what Chris Cillizza doesn't know is what makes him Chris Cillizza.

After what happened in 2016 I don’t think you have much to worry about

I think that's probably right, frogbs.

There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.

really hope idea of an already given success isn't going to lead to people thinking the vote is already in the bag and staying home.
Would think everybody who could do anything to prevent another 4 years of this mess should see their input counting and necessary and things like that.

i don't think people are going to stay home. the point of that tweet is that chris cillizza is unbelievably stupid.

They say the Democrats are very motivated this year, including the youngins... I pray this is true.

xps: pretty sure it's 'fooled man can't get fooled again.'

Republicans fear Trump's debate comments on white supremacy could harm them in November

This implies they're otherwise fine with them.

duh

La Crosse Mayor Tim Kabat tells me the city's airport has been notified Air Force One will no longer be arriving on Saturday, when President Trump was supposed to hold one of two rallies in Wisconsin this weekend.

— Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) October 1, 2020

Kabat says state sen candidate @DanKapanke inquired about what would be needed for a permit to hold a rally in La Crosse's Copeland Park, where his La Crosse Loggers play, but city said it would be unlikely a permit would be issued because of the COVID-19 situation in the city.

— Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) October 1, 2020

wisconsin is in a bad way with covid. if the GOP are cancelling an event it sounds like it might be bad enough shut down campaigning there until the election.

no kidding!! I was fucking furious that asshole wanted to come here right now!!

Things must have been getting a little too close in Texas... I'd be interested to see the internal polling that prompted this move.

BREAKING: Gov. Abbott issues proclamation CLOSING (as of Oct. 2) satellite offices where voters can drop off completed mail-in ballots.
Counties can only have 1 dropoff point, he says.
Travis has 4, including 3 downtown.
Harris has 12.

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 1, 2020

Abbott says move, which also requires early voting clerks to let poll watchers observe ballot delivery, is an election security measure.
Clerks said the multiple dropoff spots were to help voters, particularly amid questions about Postal Service efficiency.

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 1, 2020

Read the proclamation, which amended Abbott's July 27 order that extended early voting and allowed early dropoff of mail ballots, here: https://t.co/uPc4MtYMis

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 1, 2020

Democrats criticized Abbott's order as a thinly veiled effort to suppress votes in a tight election. pic.twitter.com/ibDg0xtkB9

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 1, 2020

The president claimed Biden would propose a "700 percent increase in refugees coming from the most dangerous places in the world, including Yemen, Syria, and your favorite country, Somalia."

"Biden will turn Minnesota into a refugee camp … overwhelming public resources, overcrowding schools and inundating your hospitals," he added.

This is really, really dark stuff.

If it talks like a fascist…

Biden launching in-person canvassing

Relevant to Trump's anti-refugee remarks in MN: His campaign is running an ad that warns Biden will increase refugee resettlement "by 700 percent." And it's true - bc Trump drastically cut down on refugee resettlement, so restoring it surges the total. https://t.co/wUJlSVQcii

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) October 1, 2020

If not for refugee resettlement, we wouldn't have Jared Kushner.

Oh...wait...

"What is going on with Omar?" he continued, citing unproven claims tying Omar to a ballot harvesting scheme. "I’ve been reading these reports for two years about how corrupt and crooked she is. Let’s get with it. Let’s get with it."

The rally crowd then broke into a chant of "lock her up..."

America at her best.

jfc

somehow every day i increasingly look forward to his death

This alone just caused me to make a donation to Joe Biden.

"she want to tell us how to run our country"

Icky Trump, nothing better to do? Why don't you kick yourself out? You're an immigrant too

christ what an asshole

I hope the date he passes becomes a national holiday so I can hose down his grave every year without having to dip into my PTO.

I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

Don't worry about it. Saying something positive about Barack Obama is always tone-deaf and inappropriate, if you're map or table.

There’s nothing wrong with that tweet.

It’s a legit response (funny? I laughed) to misguided Obama adulation.

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

Good morning!

Turnout of FL's registrants so far:

Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%
NPA/others: 49.7%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

They are not analogous, that’s the point.

The “joke” is this scrim of celebrity that obscures the atrocities. It’s a sendup of responses like Bradley Whitford’s “spank bank” line.

I've never read this guy, but this is worth a peek:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump around a 30% chance to win. 30% events happen all the time.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

i'm acting way too cranky this morning so will bow out of this thread.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt),

to...reassure you?

Wow

🚨 State Legislative Chamber Rating Change 🚨

We are getting rid of our final Toss-Up in our forecasts:

TX House | Toss-Up → Tilt D (FLIP)

D Maj. 50%
R Maj. 44.4%
Tie 5.6%

See our nationwide state legislative forecast:https://t.co/yKxc3sFaOU pic.twitter.com/A8I6jYyiMY

— CNalysis (@CNalysis) November 1, 2020

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt), Sunday, November 1, 2020 8:19 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

On ABC, Trump adviser Jason Miller signals a legal battle against ballots not yet counted by Tuesday. "If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night ... And then they're going to try to steal it back after the election."

— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 1, 2020

Will enjoy courts saying "where are you guaranteed a right to have all ballots counted on Election Day"

In a 6-3 decision

who are these Smart Democrats

do we have a new thread yet?

NYT-Siena polls:

Arizona: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Florida: Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 44%

Pennsylvania: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Wisconsin: Likely voters
Biden 52%
Trump 41%

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 1, 2020

Xpost nah, even they aren't gonna do that. They have been deferential to rules passed by state legislatures and only overturning decisions made by fed courts.

Emerson also has Biden at +6 Wisconsin, Trump at +2 Iowa

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

― jaymc, Sunday, November 1, 2020 7:53 AM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The problem is that what libs and Dems who worship Obama would have us believe is that none of the drone strikes, reinvigoration of border carceral apparatus, and other actions which should rightly be considered *war crimes* or at least *crimes against humanity* even happened, and that Obama is some "effortlessly cool" and "progressive" leader when really he's just a neoliberal murderer.

Early vote at 93.2 million. Further notes from McDonald:

2020 #earlyvote as % of 2016 total turnout

HI 111%
TX 108%
MT 99%
NC 95%
GA 94%
NM 93%
NV 91%
FL 91%
TN 90%
OR 88%
CO 87%
AZ 87%
NJ 80%

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Questions now for overall turnout:

- How much more mail is yet to be returned? (Keep in mind some states accept ballots postmarked by Election Day)
- How much mail is returned, but not entered as processed yet?
- How much Election Day vote will be cast?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Should add

- A few states are still offering in-person early voting. How much more in-person?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

McDonald's percentage listing doesn't cover every state near the top, but it's a good range. Washington's at 97.9%, for instance.

Pointing out the normalization of the silence around Obama's many crimes is always a worthy pursuit imho, particularly if it's taking aim at an establishment that seeks to distract from reality by being all "wow he can hit a three-pointer my pants are creamy."

There isn’t much silence around his war crimes, or else you wouldn’t be so aware of it, it’s simply that most people are able to sustain conflicting ideas and understand the degrees of nuance inherent in people, and how it’s amplified when are you the commander in chief of most the powerful defense in the world.

GET OUT: US politics November 2020