"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Knowing him, he'll probably start selling his own branded vaccines after he loses.

Covid-19 and vaccines are both fake, but only a loser would say no to the MAGA vaccine.

we're gonna get rid of covid and replace it with something much, much better, believe me

and this time it's not just bleach, i swear

Got my DC ballot last night. Will probably cast it on Monday when the drop boxes open.

Interesting fact: my mom (retired but still sharp MD) told me that drinking bleach probably won't kill you. So for all you abstainers, that means more for me!

another part that Chris Wallace punted: when Trump kept insisting that his own officials were wrong about the vaccine and that some random CEOs told him there would be one in a month, he should've pressed him to give a name.

I can at least confirm that drinking only about a mouthful of bleach won't kill you. (It was a close friend, not me, I promise.) xp

ILX BLEACH CHALLENGE

bleached assholes

You first

The debat.

— Rudy W. Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) October 1, 2020

It's really kind of incredible that everyone understands he constantly lies, mistakes and muddles that there's no point following up with him on anything and in fact it's probably better off in the end just moving on, because getting mired in contradictions and corrections is how he dominates everything.

the debat

pon de river, pon debat

The debavfefe

You bat, then you debat.

Thred title already obsolete GREAT JOB

https://blogforarizona.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-03-09-at-5.48.55-PM.png

ohhhh. the de bat

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71OYcrWWklL.jpg

You can get with this, or you can get with bat. The choice is yours.

I wanna know if you can get with bat.

The English translation of 'El DeBarge' iirc.

I voted/posted my ballot today at the US Embassy drop box. Embassy Gardens is some next-level edge city.

srsly

Hopefully a Biden quote in the thread title is a good omen.

I actually think Biden needs to push the "if I'm president, you don't have to hear from this guy any more" angle harder

I need to go there to renew my iVisa once everything returns to something close to normal, and am dreading it. The old embassy was terrifying enough. xps

I liked the new embassy when I got a tour of the place last year. But I don't have to live with it.

I actually think Biden needs to push the "if I'm president, you don't have to hear from this guy any more" angle harder

it is 1000% the best (true) angle he's got

For Voters Still Mulling, One Thing Is Clear: That Debate Didn’t Help

A small but crucial segment of likely voters say they remain uncommitted — to a candidate or to voting at all — and nothing they heard on Tuesday clinched things for them.

via NYT article. who the fuck are these people?

narcissism

The kingmakers.

xp

they have been inspired by susan collins and are now emulating her methodology

HERE’S WHY I’M AN UNDECIDED VOTER pic.twitter.com/kg7GBwNpgn

— blaire erskine (@blaireerskine) September 30, 2020

Poll: Most voters didn’t enjoy Trump-Biden clash, say they should still keep debating

...wut

https://iep.utm.edu/derrida/#H5

Doesn't seem that weird to me. People have internalized that debates are a normal and necessary part of presidential elections. Even if they don't personally enjoy them, they may feel that canceling them would be undemocratic, or would have unexpected consequences.

Trump requires food aid boxes to come with a letter from him
The Agriculture Department last week began mandating that millions of boxes of surplus food for needy families include a letter from President Donald Trump claiming credit for the program...

Let them eat government cheese! If you don't vote for me.. no more food for you!

wasn't his $100 Medicare gift card tanked for basically this reason

The letter also mentions you should wash your hands, and stay home if you don't feel well. See, he's totally on it! The Churchill of Covid-19.

If you don't do any reporting, have never demonstrated any insight about politics, and don't even write particularly well, you'd think you could at the very least understand that 20% ≠ 0%. https://t.co/G1eONuBP1m

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 1, 2020

https://clickhole.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/dnmtn4ksijwyep0xmljk.jpg

I have no clue how the 538 model works but given Biden is ahead by more than the MOE in basically every swing state am I to assume that "Trump has no chance" would be true if the election were held TODAY?

In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.

that's from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/

I saw that CNN headline... such a bummer, laurel-resting is really not what we need right now.

Yeah, this made me tense up.

Seeing some chatter/ads on social media urging third party voting because Biden is ahead. Anyone looking into that? Feels like 2016.

— Melody Joy Kramer (@mkramer) October 1, 2020

To paraphrase Tommy Boy, what Chris Cillizza doesn't know is what makes him Chris Cillizza.

After what happened in 2016 I don’t think you have much to worry about

I think that's probably right, frogbs.

good to see that the +2 is actually a move towards Biden

i wonder if Nate enjoys that kind of exposure

I assume you're referring to Joe, cause as we've all seen in that leaked Chinese sex tape, Hunter definitely doesn't need a +2

what the FUCK is you talkin about?

Hunter Biden is abnormally well-endowed in the penal area.

open for an October surprise

i wonder if Nate enjoys that kind of exposure

I've got to believe he loves it, even if he might not admit to that (and even if it gives competitors a chance to caricature him).

so that AtlasIntel has called 81% of races correctly, has a Simple Average Error of 8.8 points, and its Advanced and Predictive scores aren't great, 538 sez they're average. online survey, ima say it's likely bogus for Wisconsin

it also got a 89% white sample

half of AtlasIntel's summary of their poll is them bragging about how good their polling performance has been too. it reads like a press release

In 2016, Clinton won the TX counties containing Houston, Dallas and Austin by 541k votes. In 2018, Beto won them by 682k. Biden's likely on pace to win them by 1 million+.

And that's not even including San Antonio/El Paso.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

i have a new sign, it says "whenever you talk about texas turnout numbers you have to use per cent, or you have to acknowledge that the population of texas is growing rapidly", and i'm tapping it ;-)

People seem to misinterpret that growth, too - Beto won natives, Sen. Blobfish won the non-native Texans.

Direct deposit into the spank bank. https://t.co/KmWGjdwBxD

— Bradley Whitford (@BradleyWhitford) November 1, 2020

He hit that three like it was a Yemeni wedding https://t.co/J8zgqpEN0R

— accidentally racist spooky display name (@websiteidi0t) October 31, 2020

lol at that 'seen between pumpkins' tweet

That Yemeni wedding tweet...whew.

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

23,975,574 Americans who didn't vote in the 2016 election have already voted.

7,816,118 of these voters were voting for the first time in their life.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 1, 2020

I'm gonna idly speculate, perhaps unhelpfully, at least a fifth of those are votes for 'four more years' sadly, whether young first time voters or just commonly apathetic types who sat out last time but then got red-pilled by antifa setting fire to their minecart, but let's hope it's far far less.

The Yemeni wedding tweet is not funny.

Hm okay I'm open to that, crut. I personally don't know if it's supposed to be "funny" as much as pushing against the adulation? But I don't swim in those waters much so I'm probably missing something.

Election Day weather forecast: Great!

Outside of the Pacific NW (where folks vote by mail), basically no rain/snow is in the forecast across the entire country. That means voters waiting in pandemic-mandated lines outside polling places should stay dry, if maybe a little chilly. pic.twitter.com/TI4CJAgIQg

— Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) November 1, 2020

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Sunday, November 1, 2020 11:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm not familiar w the full context of verified white ppl being flippant(?) about USian-dealt horrors? Fwiw it appeared in my timeline being RTed by @WyzeChef, a Ferguson organizer. I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

Don't worry about it. Saying something positive about Barack Obama is always tone-deaf and inappropriate, if you're map or table.

There’s nothing wrong with that tweet.

It’s a legit response (funny? I laughed) to misguided Obama adulation.

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

Good morning!

Turnout of FL's registrants so far:

Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%
NPA/others: 49.7%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

They are not analogous, that’s the point.

The “joke” is this scrim of celebrity that obscures the atrocities. It’s a sendup of responses like Bradley Whitford’s “spank bank” line.

I've never read this guy, but this is worth a peek:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump around a 30% chance to win. 30% events happen all the time.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

i'm acting way too cranky this morning so will bow out of this thread.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt),

to...reassure you?

Wow

🚨 State Legislative Chamber Rating Change 🚨

We are getting rid of our final Toss-Up in our forecasts:

TX House | Toss-Up → Tilt D (FLIP)

D Maj. 50%
R Maj. 44.4%
Tie 5.6%

See our nationwide state legislative forecast:https://t.co/yKxc3sFaOU pic.twitter.com/A8I6jYyiMY

— CNalysis (@CNalysis) November 1, 2020

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt), Sunday, November 1, 2020 8:19 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

On ABC, Trump adviser Jason Miller signals a legal battle against ballots not yet counted by Tuesday. "If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night ... And then they're going to try to steal it back after the election."

— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 1, 2020

Will enjoy courts saying "where are you guaranteed a right to have all ballots counted on Election Day"

In a 6-3 decision

who are these Smart Democrats

do we have a new thread yet?

NYT-Siena polls:

Arizona: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Florida: Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 44%

Pennsylvania: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Wisconsin: Likely voters
Biden 52%
Trump 41%

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 1, 2020

Xpost nah, even they aren't gonna do that. They have been deferential to rules passed by state legislatures and only overturning decisions made by fed courts.

Emerson also has Biden at +6 Wisconsin, Trump at +2 Iowa

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

― jaymc, Sunday, November 1, 2020 7:53 AM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The problem is that what libs and Dems who worship Obama would have us believe is that none of the drone strikes, reinvigoration of border carceral apparatus, and other actions which should rightly be considered *war crimes* or at least *crimes against humanity* even happened, and that Obama is some "effortlessly cool" and "progressive" leader when really he's just a neoliberal murderer.

Early vote at 93.2 million. Further notes from McDonald:

2020 #earlyvote as % of 2016 total turnout

HI 111%
TX 108%
MT 99%
NC 95%
GA 94%
NM 93%
NV 91%
FL 91%
TN 90%
OR 88%
CO 87%
AZ 87%
NJ 80%

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Questions now for overall turnout:

- How much more mail is yet to be returned? (Keep in mind some states accept ballots postmarked by Election Day)
- How much mail is returned, but not entered as processed yet?
- How much Election Day vote will be cast?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Should add

- A few states are still offering in-person early voting. How much more in-person?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

McDonald's percentage listing doesn't cover every state near the top, but it's a good range. Washington's at 97.9%, for instance.

Pointing out the normalization of the silence around Obama's many crimes is always a worthy pursuit imho, particularly if it's taking aim at an establishment that seeks to distract from reality by being all "wow he can hit a three-pointer my pants are creamy."

There isn’t much silence around his war crimes, or else you wouldn’t be so aware of it, it’s simply that most people are able to sustain conflicting ideas and understand the degrees of nuance inherent in people, and how it’s amplified when are you the commander in chief of most the powerful defense in the world.

GET OUT: US politics November 2020