People that you've never heard of, people that are in the dark shadows -- US Politics September 2020

W.A.S.P. is gonna be the musical guest for next debate

I could see Chris Holmes being maga

Gee, what could possibly have happened in 2016 that would cause people to not want to put faith in polls? I can't imagine.

― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, September 30, 2020 6:54 PM bookmarkflaglink

Cos they don't understand polls and odds?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

Many forecasters (other than Sam Wang) had Trump with 15-35% odds to win on election day. If the average person is told their loved one has a 15-35% chance of dying from a disease, they freak out. They hear that Trump has a 15-35% chance of winning, they heard AHH SHIT, IT'S OVER!!!

I'm not going to be revisionist, many of us (other than k3v and a few others who were rightfully skeptical) treated it like a slam dunk because a) we believed the narrative that Trump couldn't win, b) he had done several things in the previous month that would end the average campaign, and c) maybe we were naively faithful that America couldn't possibly vote this lunatic in. Early voting also looked promising.

But...we (me especially) were wrong.

Also worth mentioning: one of the 538 guys (forget who) posted a chart that compared the post-first debate polls with the final results for the last 10 elections. I didn’t save it but the gist of it was, if you’re behind late, the first debate is really your last chance to make up real ground. I don’t see any indication that Trumps uh...performance last night would move the needle in a positive direction.

And even Romney's swing after debate 1 self-corrected.

Tulsi Gabbard (you remember her - she ran for president once!) is now working with Dennis Prager.

Tulsi is seamlessly transitioning into the Prager U grift.

pic.twitter.com/9ppI26TpZM

— Héctor E. Alcalá (@Hector_E_Alcala) September 30, 2020

wow, first I'd heard of that

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/inside-right-wing-youtube-turning-millennials-conservative-prageru-video-dennis-prager/

Lol Trump people whining about "liberal moderator" Chris Wallace now

His wife, Candice Parscale, also released a statement on Wednesday denying that her husband was physically abusive toward her after telling police days earlier that Parscale was responsible for several bruises on her body, according to a police report.

"The statements I made on Sunday have been misconstrued, let it be clear my husband was not violent towards me that day or any day prior," she said, according to Politico.

A police detective at the scene wrote in a report that after asking Candice Parscale about bruises on her body, she "stated Brad Parscale hits her."

Another police officer noted the incident as well in a police report, writing, "While speaking with Candice I observed several bruises on both arms (photographs were taken and uploaded into evidence), which she advised occurred a few days ago, during a physical altercation with Bradley, which she did not report."

you know, why doesn't someone start up a newspaper that only publishes POSITIVE news!? i bet that would sell like hotcakes

Not sure if this goes here but obviously a trump taking point by this racist person

A Texas woman explains why she doesn't want affordable housing in her neighborhood. I think this clip is @jbouie and @GeeDee215 bait https://t.co/RrglpXg66A pic.twitter.com/fZzloORRe7

— Almaqah (@_Almaqah) October 1, 2020

good morning!

Cos they don't understand polls and odds?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

Many forecasters (other than Sam Wang) had Trump with 15-35% odds to win on election day. If the average person is told their loved one has a 15-35% chance of dying from a disease, they freak out. They hear that Trump has a 15-35% chance of winning, they heard AHH SHIT, IT'S OVER!!!

I'm not going to be revisionist, many of us (other than k3v and a few others who were rightfully skeptical) treated it like a slam dunk because a) we believed the narrative that Trump couldn't win, b) he had done several things in the previous month that would end the average campaign, and c) maybe we were naively faithful that America couldn't possibly vote this lunatic in. Early voting also looked promising.

But...we (me especially) were wrong.

― LaRusso Auto (Neanderthal), Wednesday, September 30, 2020 8:00 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

If you are interested in understanding how and why humans are absolutely horrible at estimating probabilities (as well as understanding a host of other biases and heuristics), I highly recommend Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, which deals with prospect theory. It is very, very dense, but was utterly fascinating to me: https://readingraphics.com/the-prospect-theory-fourfold-pattern-of-influences/

October October. What's the thread title.

"Will you shut up, man?" might feel fresh for at least another 9 to 12 hours

the sentiment will be relevant at least until the end of the month

New thread created.

Not sure if this goes here but obviously a trump taking point by this racist person

A Texas woman explains why she doesn't want affordable housing in her neighborhood. I think this clip is @jbouie and @GeeDee215 bait https://t.co/RrglpXg66A pic.twitter.com/fZzloORRe7
— Almaqah (@_Almaqah) October 1, 2020
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, October 1, 2020 7:55 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

worth noting: her house is ugly as fuck

"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020