For sure--on top of which, he only played in 75% of his team's games. Still, looking at the list of people who've done this post-1900, it's a pretty imposing group of players. (Sherry Magee and Fred Lynn were about the worst, and they were pretty damn good.)
http://cliffcorcoran.com/2012/09/25/slash-stat-triple-crown-winners/
― clemenza, Sunday, 27 September 2020 21:18 (three years ago) link
Juan Soto leading off innings in 2020: 13-for-25Four doublesFour homers.Eight walks.One hit by pitch. One strikeout. For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 14, 2020
― mookieproof, Monday, 14 December 2020 15:54 (three years ago) link
Extending Juan Soto… All the Way to Cooperstown
https://i.redd.it/o75iy76dgum61.jpg
― mookieproof, Sunday, 14 March 2021 05:26 (three years ago) link
Do ZIPS projections usually spit out such metronomic consistency? Those totals are possible--though they would probably make him one of the 10 best hitters ever; rather optimistic--but no fluctuations for injury, off-year, pitcher's years, pandemics, etc. seems highly unlikely.
― clemenza, Sunday, 14 March 2021 14:34 (three years ago) link
well, yes. it's a projection, not a forecast -- it's not like they can predict soto will blow out his knee and miss the 2028 season. and of course it's somewhat fantastical, but i wouldn't say jaffe is prone to hyperbole.
the biggest caveat, as mentioned in the article, is that he becomes unplayable in the outfield
― mookieproof, Sunday, 14 March 2021 16:35 (three years ago) link
I’m surprised he isn’t that good a fielder tbh. I wonder how often fielding improves over time. I would think not often, but maybe with a guy that young there’s a better chance?
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 14 March 2021 16:54 (three years ago) link
zips accounts for injury at least by projecting fewer and fewer ABs every season, it just doesn't project a random huge injury or anything like that
john sickels of minorleagueball.com used to do crystal ball predictions that i believe were 100% handmade, and he would always have fun with predicting things like that. and then he would have players sign with expansion teams that didn't exist yet or move to the KBO in their last 2-4 years
― ✖, Sunday, 14 March 2021 17:44 (three years ago) link
this is the only super old one i can find, probably pissed off a lot of reds fans at the timehttps://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3261/brucestats.JPG
― ✖, Sunday, 14 March 2021 17:45 (three years ago) link
I know you can't predict injury; I was probably thinking more of minor adjustments for the up-and-down nature of a career. I'd have to dig one out, but James used to do occasional career projections in the Abstracts, and I'm pretty sure there was some acknowledgement in his--something built in to however he'd programmed them--that careers don't rise and fall in straight lines. Not a big deal.
― clemenza, Sunday, 14 March 2021 18:36 (three years ago) link
clem, it’s based on like a million simulations. it’s not predicting that’s how his career will look exactly, but on average that is the trajectory of a young star’s career. he’ll have a year with 3 WAR and another with 9 instead of the smooth rise and fall, but in the end it evens out
― k3vin k., Monday, 15 March 2021 01:18 (three years ago) link
Would love to see a similar table for Acuna.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 15 March 2021 03:08 (three years ago) link
In the late '80s-early '90s, the Rotisserie League Baseball guys would publish a book every year with fantasy predictions and have a full stat line for each player. Complete BS because none of them were analysts and it went to print in December most likely but it put me on a dark path of doing the same for a few years and of assembling the complete "projected" stats for my entire rotisserie teams each year.
OTOH, my first year of having a solo team in my dad's league was 1990 and I bought Bobby Thigpen and Cecil Fielder at the auction.
― Joe Bombin (milo z), Monday, 15 March 2021 07:52 (three years ago) link
soto years 1 and 2: 1154 PA, .287/.403/.535, 142 OPS+, 231 SO, 187 BBsoto years 3 and 4: 742 PA, .315/.460/.566, 180 OPS+, 108 SO, 155 BB
― k3vin k., Thursday, 9 September 2021 21:50 (two years ago) link
SOTO WILL also BE MVP BY 2025, IT IS KNOWN
― "HYYOOOOOOONK!" is the sound I make (Karl Malone), Thursday, 9 September 2021 21:53 (two years ago) link
where is that poll thread of the young guns?
― k3vin k., Thursday, 9 September 2021 22:43 (two years ago) link
Old Man Acuña
― clemenza, Thursday, 9 September 2021 22:48 (two years ago) link
stunned by the plate discipline of soto and vlad at their ages
― mookieproof, Thursday, 9 September 2021 23:35 (two years ago) link
Said it on the main thred but watching soto flip HR oppo looks sooooooooo easy
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 10 September 2021 03:25 (two years ago) link
130 walks ties him with Harper (2018) for fourth-highest single-season total among active players; Votto holds the top three spots with seasons of 143 (2015), 135 (2013), and 134 (2017). Ten games left--should take second on that list, but hard to overtake the top spot.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 September 2021 21:24 (two years ago) link
Votto is a man-god
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 23 September 2021 21:27 (two years ago) link
Soto took over the BA lead for both leagues today.
― clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 02:48 (two years ago) link
(And must have a big OBP lead.)
also leading in CS weirdly enough
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 24 September 2021 03:26 (two years ago) link
I noticed that too. Weird: 23/28 his first three years, 9/16 this year. He got bolder and slower simultaneously.
― clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 14:09 (two years ago) link
juan soto in 67 second-half games: .369/.542/.682, 18 HR, 81 BB, 34 K
juan soto in 26 september games: .430/.590/.744, 7 HR, 34 BB, 8 K
now leads the NL in both fWAR and bWAR for position players (the latter by quite a bit). envisioning a pujols-like run here
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 15:05 (two years ago) link
wow, by fWAR he's ahead of everyone in the AL too, including vlad and semien, by just a smidge.
by pujols-like run do you mean his consistency in the 2000s? seems right to me, just watching him. even his lesser stretches (first half 2021) are still very, very good by almost any other measure other than himself
― typo hell #5: maybe you get an idea of what went into, or (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 28 September 2021 15:46 (two years ago) link
yeah, basically where he's a top-five mvp candidate for the next seven years in a row. more fun soto splits (this season):
he's hitting .469/.463/.813 on first pitches, so don't throw him a first-pitch strike. but then he's hitting .588/.600/1.147 on 1-0 pitches, so
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 16:09 (two years ago) link
Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract from the Washington Nationals before the lockout, according to this @Enrique_Rojas1 report. In the story, Soto confirms the offer.More from Enrique at @ESPNDeportes: https://t.co/zNnlWTb9Rd— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 16, 2022
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 16 February 2022 19:22 (two years ago) link
He has 6 home runs this year, and a total of 7 RBIs.
― Michael F Gill, Friday, 6 May 2022 20:12 (one year ago) link
juan soto is in one of the worst slumps of his career.
https://i.imgur.com/SYsTbAb.png
juan soto is batting 25% better than the average MLB hitter (wRC+ 125, .214/.265/.432 with 14 HRs)juan soto's babip is .207, more than 100 points below any other season. juan soto has 20.0 fWAR and is 23 years old.
― Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 June 2022 16:40 (one year ago) link
Turned down a 15 year/$440M extension. My guess is that no amount would have been sufficient.
― Michael F Gill, Saturday, 16 July 2022 20:30 (one year ago) link
That sounds crazy but I honestly can't blame him for thinking he could get more, possibly a lot more, if he hits FA, and he wouldn't have to spend some of his best years on a rebuilding team. Would really only need to get like 10/400 at 26 to beat it and possibly even leave an opportunity for another decent payday at 36.
― ✖, Saturday, 16 July 2022 20:45 (one year ago) link
$440M seems like a big deal.
― clemenza, Saturday, 16 July 2022 23:59 (one year ago) link
he's gonna be a yankee, isn't he
― mookieproof, Sunday, 17 July 2022 00:58 (one year ago) link
With six playoff teams per league, "rebuilding" doesn't mean what it used to.
Can't blame Soto for wanting to bet on himself though.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 17 July 2022 12:17 (one year ago) link
i feel bad for nats fans
― na (NA), Monday, 18 July 2022 19:50 (one year ago) link
I can’t believe there seems to be a growing consensus that he will be traded in a week or two. My guess is that it probably costs a team their top 3-5 prospects plus some of their current starters. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-juan-soto-available-the-nationals-have-upended-the-trade-market/
― Michael F Gill, Monday, 18 July 2022 23:06 (one year ago) link
Goofy trade scenarios (skimmed--I think the writer's just making them up).
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/exploring-juan-soto-trades-no-matter-how-far-fetched/
― clemenza, Tuesday, 19 July 2022 03:18 (one year ago) link
whats going on here.
The #Padres, barely clinging to the final wild-card berth, are still awaiting dividends on their blockbuster trade:Juan Soto is hitting .063 (3-48) without an extra-base hit in his last 15 games; .202 with 7 RBI in 35 games since his arrival.Josh Bell is hitting .204/.319/.307.— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 16, 2022
― Spottie, Friday, 16 September 2022 19:58 (one year ago) link
And that's not even to mention Josh Hader's 4-digit ERA as a Padre. What's going on?
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 16 September 2022 20:38 (one year ago) link
san diego is where stars go to die
― Spottie, Friday, 16 September 2022 20:41 (one year ago) link
It’s fascinating to me how bad the deadline deals have worked out so far to the Padres. And I say that as a person who wants them to do well.
― Michael F Gill, Friday, 16 September 2022 23:52 (one year ago) link
I was gonna post that Drury's been great but I see he only has a 700 OPS too!
― Piven After Midnight (The Yellow Kid), Saturday, 17 September 2022 00:12 (one year ago) link
just a poorly timed slump
― ciderpress, Saturday, 17 September 2022 01:31 (one year ago) link
Haven't read it yet, but Posnanski has a column on Soto today:
What gives? At ages 21 and 22, Soto was channeling Ted Williams. Now, all due respect, he’s channeling Ted Sizemore. How can we make sense of any of this?
― clemenza, Friday, 21 April 2023 17:30 (eleven months ago) link
san diego is where stars go to die― Spottie, Friday, September 16, 2022 1:41 PM (seven months ago)
― Spottie, Friday, September 16, 2022 1:41 PM (seven months ago)
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Friday, 21 April 2023 17:46 (eleven months ago) link
Probably no surprise, in view of the fact Soto again leads the league in BB; Posnanski (with some numbers for support) thinks Soto has become too selective.
I've got to believe he'll come back--if not all the way, at least to an All-Star level. Mostly I liked the Ted Sizemore reference in that quote.
― clemenza, Friday, 21 April 2023 18:06 (eleven months ago) link
Finally, finally--having a player-of-the-month May:
.346/.485/.680, 11 doubles, 5 HR
I don't know if there was any validity to that "too selective" theory (always a dicey proposition). Has he become more aggressive? Twenty-one walks for the month would suggest otherwise. Tim?
― clemenza, Saturday, 27 May 2023 18:31 (ten months ago) link
(Will be seeing them/him in July.)
― clemenza, Saturday, 27 May 2023 18:32 (ten months ago) link