JUAN SOTO seems like a big deal

They pulled Soto after going 1-1 today--some things never change--so it looks like he'll win the slash TC. Younger than when Williams did it in '41, so I'm guessing he's the youngest ever.

With a 60-game asterisk

For sure--on top of which, he only played in 75% of his team's games. Still, looking at the list of people who've done this post-1900, it's a pretty imposing group of players. (Sherry Magee and Fred Lynn were about the worst, and they were pretty damn good.)

http://cliffcorcoran.com/2012/09/25/slash-stat-triple-crown-winners/

Juan Soto leading off innings in 2020:
13-for-25
Four doubles
Four homers.
Eight walks.
One hit by pitch.
One strikeout.
For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 14, 2020

Extending Juan Soto… All the Way to Cooperstown

https://i.redd.it/o75iy76dgum61.jpg

Do ZIPS projections usually spit out such metronomic consistency? Those totals are possible--though they would probably make him one of the 10 best hitters ever; rather optimistic--but no fluctuations for injury, off-year, pitcher's years, pandemics, etc. seems highly unlikely.

well, yes. it's a projection, not a forecast -- it's not like they can predict soto will blow out his knee and miss the 2028 season. and of course it's somewhat fantastical, but i wouldn't say jaffe is prone to hyperbole.

the biggest caveat, as mentioned in the article, is that he becomes unplayable in the outfield

I’m surprised he isn’t that good a fielder tbh.
I wonder how often fielding improves over time. I would think not often, but maybe with a guy that young there’s a better chance?

zips accounts for injury at least by projecting fewer and fewer ABs every season, it just doesn't project a random huge injury or anything like that

john sickels of minorleagueball.com used to do crystal ball predictions that i believe were 100% handmade, and he would always have fun with predicting things like that. and then he would have players sign with expansion teams that didn't exist yet or move to the KBO in their last 2-4 years

this is the only super old one i can find, probably pissed off a lot of reds fans at the time
https://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3261/brucestats.JPG

I know you can't predict injury; I was probably thinking more of minor adjustments for the up-and-down nature of a career. I'd have to dig one out, but James used to do occasional career projections in the Abstracts, and I'm pretty sure there was some acknowledgement in his--something built in to however he'd programmed them--that careers don't rise and fall in straight lines. Not a big deal.

clem, it’s based on like a million simulations. it’s not predicting that’s how his career will look exactly, but on average that is the trajectory of a young star’s career. he’ll have a year with 3 WAR and another with 9 instead of the smooth rise and fall, but in the end it evens out

Would love to see a similar table for Acuna.

In the late '80s-early '90s, the Rotisserie League Baseball guys would publish a book every year with fantasy predictions and have a full stat line for each player. Complete BS because none of them were analysts and it went to print in December most likely but it put me on a dark path of doing the same for a few years and of assembling the complete "projected" stats for my entire rotisserie teams each year.

OTOH, my first year of having a solo team in my dad's league was 1990 and I bought Bobby Thigpen and Cecil Fielder at the auction.

soto years 1 and 2: 1154 PA, .287/.403/.535, 142 OPS+, 231 SO, 187 BB
soto years 3 and 4: 742 PA, .315/.460/.566, 180 OPS+, 108 SO, 155 BB

SOTO WILL also BE MVP BY 2025, IT IS KNOWN

where is that poll thread of the young guns?

Old Man Acuña

stunned by the plate discipline of soto and vlad at their ages

Said it on the main thred but watching soto flip HR oppo looks sooooooooo easy

130 walks ties him with Harper (2018) for fourth-highest single-season total among active players; Votto holds the top three spots with seasons of 143 (2015), 135 (2013), and 134 (2017). Ten games left--should take second on that list, but hard to overtake the top spot.

Votto is a man-god

Soto took over the BA lead for both leagues today.

(And must have a big OBP lead.)

also leading in CS weirdly enough

I noticed that too. Weird: 23/28 his first three years, 9/16 this year. He got bolder and slower simultaneously.

juan soto in 67 second-half games: .369/.542/.682, 18 HR, 81 BB, 34 K

juan soto in 26 september games: .430/.590/.744, 7 HR, 34 BB, 8 K

now leads the NL in both fWAR and bWAR for position players (the latter by quite a bit). envisioning a pujols-like run here

wow, by fWAR he's ahead of everyone in the AL too, including vlad and semien, by just a smidge.

by pujols-like run do you mean his consistency in the 2000s? seems right to me, just watching him. even his lesser stretches (first half 2021) are still very, very good by almost any other measure other than himself

yeah, basically where he's a top-five mvp candidate for the next seven years in a row. more fun soto splits (this season):

he's hitting .469/.463/.813 on first pitches, so don't throw him a first-pitch strike. but then he's hitting .588/.600/1.147 on 1-0 pitches, so

Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract from the Washington Nationals before the lockout, according to this @Enrique_Rojas1 report. In the story, Soto confirms the offer.

More from Enrique at @ESPNDeportes: https://t.co/zNnlWTb9Rd

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 16, 2022

He has 6 home runs this year, and a total of 7 RBIs.

juan soto is in one of the worst slumps of his career.

https://i.imgur.com/SYsTbAb.png

juan soto is batting 25% better than the average MLB hitter (wRC+ 125, .214/.265/.432 with 14 HRs)
juan soto's babip is .207, more than 100 points below any other season.
juan soto has 20.0 fWAR and is 23 years old.

Turned down a 15 year/$440M extension. My guess is that no amount would have been sufficient.

That sounds crazy but I honestly can't blame him for thinking he could get more, possibly a lot more, if he hits FA, and he wouldn't have to spend some of his best years on a rebuilding team. Would really only need to get like 10/400 at 26 to beat it and possibly even leave an opportunity for another decent payday at 36.

$440M seems like a big deal.

he's gonna be a yankee, isn't he

With six playoff teams per league, "rebuilding" doesn't mean what it used to.

Can't blame Soto for wanting to bet on himself though.

i feel bad for nats fans

I can’t believe there seems to be a growing consensus that he will be traded in a week or two. My guess is that it probably costs a team their top 3-5 prospects plus some of their current starters.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-juan-soto-available-the-nationals-have-upended-the-trade-market/

Goofy trade scenarios (skimmed--I think the writer's just making them up).

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/exploring-juan-soto-trades-no-matter-how-far-fetched/

whats going on here.

The #Padres, barely clinging to the final wild-card berth, are still awaiting dividends on their blockbuster trade:
Juan Soto is hitting .063 (3-48) without an extra-base hit in his last 15 games; .202 with 7 RBI in 35 games since his arrival.
Josh Bell is hitting .204/.319/.307.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 16, 2022

And that's not even to mention Josh Hader's 4-digit ERA as a Padre. What's going on?

san diego is where stars go to die

It’s fascinating to me how bad the deadline deals have worked out so far to the Padres. And I say that as a person who wants them to do well.

I was gonna post that Drury's been great but I see he only has a 700 OPS too!

just a poorly timed slump

Haven't read it yet, but Posnanski has a column on Soto today:

What gives? At ages 21 and 22, Soto was channeling Ted Williams. Now, all due respect, he’s channeling Ted Sizemore. How can we make sense of any of this?

san diego is where stars go to die

― Spottie, Friday, September 16, 2022 1:41 PM (seven months ago)

Probably no surprise, in view of the fact Soto again leads the league in BB; Posnanski (with some numbers for support) thinks Soto has become too selective.

I've got to believe he'll come back--if not all the way, at least to an All-Star level. Mostly I liked the Ted Sizemore reference in that quote.

Finally, finally--having a player-of-the-month May:

.346/.485/.680, 11 doubles, 5 HR

I don't know if there was any validity to that "too selective" theory (always a dicey proposition). Has he become more aggressive? Twenty-one walks for the month would suggest otherwise. Tim?