We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

gut says they'll do well

lots of reasons...I think their support is soft, Adrian Dix had similar giant polling leads in 2013 that evaporated by election day. The NDP have never won 48 pct before, they've formed govt by winning around 41 pct and having the other parties split their vote.

Horgan's current popularity is due to a rally-round-the-flag effect and a perception of the NDP's competence in handling Covid. But the people who are most concerned about the pandemic are the ones who are likely to turn on them for calling an unnecessary election during a pandemic.

Children have gone back to school in the last couple weeks, the teachers who make up NDP's voting and financial base are feeling extremely unsupported by the govt. And there are already many exposures at schools: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-exposures-bc-schools-1.5732050

I also think people are underestimating the leaders of the Liberal and Green party...if the Liberals are good at anything, it's stoking media outrage about bullshit, and that's all they really need to do this campaign. The Greens just elected Sonia Furstenau, who is a much more genuine progressive than their previous leader and is a good home for voters pissed off about the NDP's stances on indigenous sovereignty and resource extraction.

on the other hand, they start with the advantage in money, organization, and they've been announcing big name MPs in many important swing ridings the last couple weeks. They've come up with a smart strategy to take over the majority, I just somehow doubt that voters will co-operate.

They are losing a lot of quite high-profile MLAs including numerous cabinet ministers who are stepping down, including my own MLA. I'm in a safe NDP seat but not sure about the others. Also, there are seats that could be competitive but there is such a short time for the NDP to even select a candidate for some of them let alone put together a decent enough campaign to unseat the incumbents.

afaik they are all fairly solid NDP seats. the question for me is why are so many ministers not standing for reelection, but I've heard less than glowing things about Horgan from people who have worked with him

The point is they have to win all the ones they won before, plus a few more. What are the ones they could possibly win from the Liberals right now? - the one in Coquitlam, Vancouver-False Creek, one or two in North Van or Vancouver Island? These ridings don't even have candidates yet. And the Liberal strongholds in the interior all seem safe as houses.

Sorry, I see Finn Donnely is running in Coquitlam Burke Mountain.

I'm assuming they've done some polling and this isn't just a roll of the dice

And Murray Rankin is running in Oak Bay. Wow, a lot happened in the last week.

Oh, it's only been three years since the last election?

Voters do punish that sometimes - how the NDP ended up winning ON in 1990.

They are certainly in a strong position right now and the polls are great. Just seems like the wrong time.

Yeah they're running Nathan Cullen in a safe interior seat too

Here's a decent round-up of the swing ridings: https://globalnews.ca/news/7344240/14-ridings-bc-election/

Any predictions for tonight?

Either way, I find it somewhat rich that the two party leaders likeliest to vote no-confidence are both self-isolating right now because they tested positive for covid.

I'm more concerned about the Breonna Taylor verdict tbh

Bit of a weird thing to post itt, but sure. Anyway, looks like one officer was indicted on criminal charges.

very bullshit charges

or charge singular rather

'Wanton endangerment' does indeed sound like bullshit. If only Taylor had merely been 'endangered'.

oh sorry, it is 3 charges of wanton endangerment - for firing into another apartment.

but I'm not overly concerned about tonight's throne speech etc. don't think there'll be a no confidence vote but don't really care if there is - grits are ahead in the polls in any case, don't think we have much risk of tory rule anytime soon and that's really all that federal politics comes down to for me

We've had CPAC on but Payette seems delayed?

Not sure what to expect. Probably more health care funding but hopefully some coordinated plan to fix LTC. UBI seems unlikely but they might extend CERB and expand EI.

Oh wait I think they're being valled to the Senate? I have been drifting obv

I took out the garbage and apparently missed the announcement of a natl child care program and EI coverage for the self-employed and gig workers?

Closing stock option loopholes and taxing digital giants

Nice.

"this is no time for austerity"

thank fuck

See, Simon, this place isn't so bad.

Moving towards universal pharmacare and a rare disease strategy!

Cue hand-wringing about fiscal responsibility.

Pharmacare would be huge

Also measures to facilitate independent living outside of LTC homes, which is v important.

Homelessness strategy and expansion of housing investment

Ban on single use plastics

That one was a long time coming.

Expanded intl development as well

OK, I realize this isn't actual legislation but that was kind of incredible.

(speech as a whole)

Fuck this headline:

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2020-09-23/un-discours-du-trone-qui-laisse-presager-d-importantes-depenses.php

That's your sole takeaway? And La Presse isn't even especially right-leaning.

Even the Natl Post is better tbh.

https://nationalpost.com/news/payette-to-detail-liberals-response-to-surge-in-covid-19-cases-and-plans-to-support-canadians-businesses-in-throne-speech

Heh, that's quite the unexpected contrast. No openly snarky paragraphs such as this one:

Mis à part le « 19 » de COVID-19, on retrouve dans ce discours peu de chiffres susceptibles de donner une idée de l’ampleur des dépenses du gouvernement fédéral, dont le déficit pour 2020-2021 a été évalué à 343 milliards de dollars en juillet dernier par l’ancien ministre des Finances, Bill Morneau. Le prochain rendez-vous est fixé à l’automne, alors que sa successeure, Chrystia Freeland, fera le point sur les finances publiques.

Sorry to post re: Breonna Taylor upthread-- meant to post elsewhere. Still concerned.

gentlemen you can't apologize in here, this is the Canadian politics thread

Ontario finally came to its senses and closed strip clubs. Also a ban on liquor sales after 11 pm, which must have been a painful decision for Ford.

I missed this in the throne speech. May be interesting. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/09/23/throne-speech-promise-to-force-big-tech-to-pay-for-canadian-content-could-make-a-huge-difference-to-struggling-media-companies-advocate-says.html

Agree that it's interesting.

Singh and Trudeau reach a deal on sick leave. I feel like Singh might have been able to aim higher but this is still a good step: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-liberals-deal-sick-leave-1.5739658

Although there wasn't much in the way of specific solutions, Trudeau actually strongly called out major superpowers (in all but name) on pretty specific things and laid out a pretty stark view of how things are in his UN address. He also acknowledged Canada's, and other middle or lesser powers', inability to change much on our own and called for broader intl co-operation, while pledging increased funds towards intl development. (But why the recent need to phrase any call-out of racism as being about "anti-black and anti-indigenous racism"? Are we all OK with anti-Asian and anti-Arab racism now?)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-un-general-assembly-1.5739530

^The article is good but the video annoyingly overdubs an English translation over the French passages without muting the French so that it is unlistenable. This is all English, with the French parts dubbed and muted: https://youtu.be/13ImxYuB4d4 . Unfortunately, I couldn't find a bilingual clip that just left things the way he said them.

All very reasonable stuff, though I do agree with your quibble, re: racism. I guess he's stating where the priorities lie, but even that is kind of debatable tbh. In Quebec, at least (much like in France, for that matter), I get the sense that anti-Arab racism is an even bigger concern at the moment than anti-black racism. But I digress.

Yeah, the mass mosque shooting isn't exactly a distant memory, nor are attempts at both the federal and provincial level, to regulate traditional Muslim garb. Hate crimes against Asians have risen significantly this year.