rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

We found the one person paying attention to Eric Garland in 2020.

milo...are you ready for some game theory? buckle up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXGG-8aGXqo

he has the supreme court, the senate, the attorney general, and the russian intelligence service . . . but he doesn't have covid. after bannon was arrested, parscale was arrested, his taxes went public, and he melted down at the debate, recordings of melania saying "fuck christmas" was the final straw. he knows he has the election in the bag (because of all the aforesaid) so why bother going through the motions of campaigning anymore? hey guys, i have the covid, see you in november . . . when after a steady diet of hydroxy i emerge unscathed from covid . . . and order ya'll back to drink hydroxy ($1000 a bottle) and get back to work . . . and if you die, it is what it is -- you don't deserve to live! herd immunity!!

what

lol

qualms has been blootered since the tax paperwork leaked

I'll have what qualmsley is having

Adjusting my position:

Biden will win popular election, but malarkey means that DJT will remain in office past January.

Posting this now so that I can quote myself later.

you obviously haven't heard Biden's stance on malarkey

I don’t think Trump would win a fair election at this point but voter suppression and court fights fucking Biden in Pennsylvania is hauntingly plausible

Biden will win popular election, but malarkey means that DJT will remain in office past January.

Yes, until January 20th

60%: clear Biden win, enough exhausted/principled GOP vocal support (poss including Fox even) that chicanery & malarkey is contained, transition happens in January like normal. Fuckery is concerning but contained.

20%: chicanery & malarkey create enough instability to cause serious global heartburn, horrible domestic unrest & years of USAnian fuckery, lingering international conspiracy doubt lingers in the public brain, Biden gets “in” but is significantly constrained by weird meme effects. Probable GOP win in 2024.

20%: something worse, genuine crisis, possible coup, DJT retains grip, world ends etc

Have adjusted my position as well - now leaning towards a Biden win despite probable chicanery/malarkey. But I remain deeply pessimistic on the broader timescale. Assuming Biden wins and the Democrats take the Senate, then they have 2 years to get any majoe reform through. At least a year of that will be consumed with the covid crisis, and the other year will be consumed with Biden thinking he can work with the Republicans to achieve something bipartisan. Republicans win in 2022, leaving Biden completely ineffectual. He doesn't run again because he's too old. Harris is the candidate, she performs poorly as she did in the primaries, and some Trump-alike is elected in 2024.

Predicting even that far ahead seems nearly impossible, based on the pace at which events outpace any conformity to established patterns. Seems wiser to just go out and try to make the future you want, however you can and dispense with trying to see more than a month or two ahead.

true I mean think of how crazy the events of 2016-2020 would've sounded in like...2014

accurate prognosis is not the point of posts like that

which would be?

the thrill of hearing certain sounds colliding together, like "chicanery/malarkey"! *shiver down spine* woooooOOOOoo

which would be?

containment iirc

a contested election is certainly possible but afaik a clear Biden victory is the most likely outcome

LOOKIT!

*shiver*

asmr trigger softly reading ilx politics posts

...socialist nancy...

...hunter biden's emails...

....dot...org...

"Republicans win in 2022, leaving Biden completely ineffectual. He doesn't run again because he's too old. Harris is the candidate, she performs poorly as she did in the primaries, and some Trump-alike is elected in 2024."

that is a really depressing view of the future

Wait til you hear about climate change

I don’t think Trump would win a fair election at this point but voter suppression and court fights fucking Biden in Pennsylvania is hauntingly plausible

Plausible but PA by itself isn't enough for Trump?

Am I right in thinking Biden wins if he gets any one of PA, FL, and AZ. Trump wins if he gets all 3?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

This games out all the possibilities if Biden loses PA. Doesn't make for reassuring reading!

chicanery & malarkey

Hey let's not forget shenanigans

Jiggery pokery

xxxp to Zelda - but that model presumes that a candidate winning a state is because of legit voting trends that then guide its understanding of how demographically/regionally similar states will vote. It does not account (I don't think) for state variations in shenanigans, LET ALONE chicanery & malarkey!

I can't help but marvel, in a very sad way, at how the Republican message has drifted so fully over the past four years to saying the quiet part out loud. They are just going all in on voter suppression by any means necessary, not even taking the time to pay lip service to the bullshit excuses about theoretical voter fraud. Nope, trying to prevent people from having their votes counted so that Rs can win without more votes is now just a central and explicit piece of their, um, "platform."

Biden's gonna win Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin is a bigger risk of being lost to chicanery, and even then, I don't think a great one.

Biden IS gonna win Pennsylvania, in terms of voter intention. But we won't know for a while, so it will be better for the nation if he doesn't have to.

Hate to be doctor doom but Gore won Florida in terms of voter intention (that is, more people left the booth believing they'd voted for him).

But the devil was in the details and the lawfare and how/when things got counted.

PA will go to Biden in terms of more people wanting him to be president. Trump could take it on the technicalities like postmark dates and overvotes / undervotes / spoiled ballots / ballots disqualified for lack of a notarized double-witnessed cursive signature in the right shade of ink.

Hence the wish that Biden doesn't need PA.

Neanderthal, why do you think Wisconsin is more prone to chicanery?

just because SCOTUS overruled the federal court and won't allow ballots to be received up to 3 days after Election Day. I don't think that'll result in enough discarded ballots for Biden to lose but it's more directly impactful

counterpoint: every single Dem voter I know here is well aware what the GOP is doing and either mailed in their ballot weeks ago or is dropping it off directly. the only people who aren't aware of this are the people whose news channels have been talking nonstop about Hunter Biden the last 2 weeks.

which i do have to give it to Dem messaging, has been a consistent bit of messaging state-wide since before the elections began.

NPR was talking with 5-38 yesterday. 5-38 mentioned that there will be a smaller error deviation in the polling results this year because of some reasons which I may have already forgot. That smaller room for error and the seeming lack of an October surprise hurting Biden are both good reasons to have hope.

However, like Lavator says, the chicanery & malarkey aren't accounted for (we think). I wager that cheating will play a major role this election. It's frightening 😬.

It has been indicated that in 2016 4% of mail-in-votes were not counted (signature mismatch, improperly bubbled-in/not following directions, and states that don't accept late ballots - sometimes even if they were mailed out on time). This year the same reasons that 4% of mail-in-votes didn't get counted in 2016 will remain in effect but also we are facing an outright attack on the post office. I hope people don't wait until the last minute to send in their ballot. Especially since I think democrats are the voters most likely to take advantage of this method; and, there is going to be a larger percentage of people voting by mail this year.

Trump could ABSOLUTELY WILL try to take it on the technicalities like postmark dates and overvotes / undervotes / spoiled ballots / ballots disqualified for lack of a notarized double-witnessed cursive signature in the right shade of ink.

The paperwork is already drawn up, they're not going to wait a second longer than necessary to start this process.

it happened in 04 and arguably is why Dubya won again

difference is a lot more people dropped off ballots this year, hopefully. I did (mostly because my idiot mailman kept seeing the flag up on the box and NOT TAKING THE MAIL I PUT IN THERE...but kept putting new mail on top of it)

NPR was talking with 5-38 yesterday. 5-38 mentioned that there will be a smaller error deviation in the polling results this year because of some reasons which I may have already forgot.

much less undecideds/3rd party votes this year

xxpost why are you writing it 5-38, it's 538 as in "the total number of EVs"

xxp frogbs, they also miscalculated the college educated white male vote or something like that

xp wrote 5-38 because it's not pronounced 5 hundred and 38 but whatever

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/928556186/whats-changed-since-polls-were-wrong-about-2016s-presidential-election

538: But by 2016, that got blown out of the water - white voters without a college degree preferring Donald Trump by a lot and white voters with a college degree preferring Hillary Clinton. Because we weren't paying close enough attention to that, we had too many college-educated voters in our sample, enough to inflate Hillary Clinton's overall share of the vote by one or two points. But the other things that we have to pay attention to is what Dhrumil was talking about, was conveying uncertainty.

Greil Marcus, never someone who can be accused of a sunny outlook: "I’d give him about a 75 percent chance, holding his wins from 2016 except for Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump 280-Biden 258"

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/real-life-rock-top-10-october-2020/

There's someone I always turn to for election forecasts

Greil Marcus huh? What's Xgau's take on this?

No input from elderly rock critics, society has progressed past the need for input from elderly rock critics.