Moneyball

Fuck, them's fighting words.

that's even worse. "my handpuppet."

Really, it is great (like duuuuuuuuuuuuh), and I am getting a little bit of the "oh wow" recognition thing, seeing the names of players mentioned here getting love on the major league level (cf. Francis, Grienke, Greene, Adams, Teahen, and, of course, Jeremy "Chair-Toss Inspiring" Bonderman). MORE MONEYBALL DAMMIT!

News
When the Athletics traded Tim Hudson to the Braves this past offseason, general manager Billy Beane insisted that left handed pitching prospect Dan Meyer be included in the deal. After a 1-3 record, 6.62 ERA, and noticeable loss in velocity at Triple-A Sacramento, Meyer was shut down indefinitely late last week, according to Baseball America.

Views
When pitcher Rich Harden went out with a strained oblique injury, chances are some people in prospect circles were calling for Meyer as a possible replacement. While it was unlikely the Athletics would go that route even if health wasn't an issue, it's that much less likely now. The team is setting no timetable for his return and will take their time to discover the reason for Meyer's lack of success this season.

moneyball is indeed amazing. it should be 5000000000 pages long.

i'm reading ball four for the trillionth time right now. good god it's amazing.

Be sure to dive right into that vomit-caked Mets' wives opening chapter, Stenc.

It's been so long since I read MB I don't recall Greinke in it.

HENCE MY NEW TEAM NICKNAME

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=129

"I'm having a hard time keeping up with the literature that attempts to refute Moneyball. (Much of the time I can't figure out why they bother to refute a thing that was never said--say, for example, that the Atlanta Braves are not very successful, or that there are not other ways to win baseball games than the way Oakland wins baseball games.)...

"Billy Beane had no clue what the book was about until he saw the galleys--and got upset with me. In fairness to Joe Morgan--though why start now?--a lot of sports books are as-told-to affairs. He probably has never been fully exposed to the old fashioned idea of the author."

Book Description
Stats vs. Scouts. Math vs. Makeup. Computers vs. Commuters. College vs. High-School. The debate is a new one in baseball, and it has recently taken on a life of its own. Ever since Michael Lewis’ best-seller Moneyball arrived on the scene, and spurred by the recent World Series victory by the sabermetric advocate Boston Red Sox, the dispute about the best way to build a professional baseball team has raged out of control - until now. In this fascinating and insightful look into what criteria major and minor league baseball scouts use to determine talent, Scout’s Honor shines a bright light on the job done by ‘old-school’ scouts and their killer instincts. The author uses the success of the Atlanta Braves as the focal point for a mesmerizing investigation into the debate of stats versus scouts, and why, if it’s a successful franchise you’re after, there is no debate about the bravest way to build a winning team.
"What makes Scout’s Honor so great is that it brings us into the world of those who determine successful big leaguers by looking into the future, not by looking back at spreadsheets and stats. Now that takes talent. ‘Old-school’ wins, literally. This book is a worthy foil to the Moneyballers." - Lyle Spencer

WTF, that doesn't make the least bit of sense. I guess they're arguing that "stats" = "numbers compiled in the past" and therefore they have limited predictive value ... which still makes no sense. Never mind, trying to interpret these garbage arguments isn't worth our time.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002334979_sabermetrics14.html

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4216

And the Baseball Prospectus crew's forthcoming analysis of the Red Sox' use of smartball (Goldman said last night it should beout in early September):

http://www.workman.com/catalog/pagemaker.cgi?0761140182

It'll be very interesting to see the awareness level and reception this book gets in the sports media and baseball industry.

??????

are they honestly gonna fucking argue that foulke's better than rivera, or are they talking abt usage?

i'd like to get this for insider info, but i don't think i could stand any sox-worshipping. i know goldman's a yankees fan and he'll probably do a pretty good job at being objective and whatnot, but i think i should've written this book.

silver's major beef w/ scout's honor (its anti-moneyball polemicism) is the one and only reason i'm not interested in the book.

Don't forget the Red Sox to some degree took more performance-analysis-related shit than the A's: the bullpen-by-committee [sic] feeding frenzy in early 2003, the hiring of Bill James, the defense issues around the Nomar trade, etc.

i don't think i could stomach it.

also
"Jim Baker on why star players shouldn’t hurl themselves into the stands"

fuck that shit. i mean seroiusly, what the fuck. ppl seem to have forgotten just how important that out was.

Shanks then ends the book with a direct assault on Moneyball:

There are two differences that set the A's and the other 'Moneyballers' apart from the rest of baseball. First, their use of statistics is extreme, believing that on-base percentage is the primary indication of big-league success, and that stats override makeup in determining who will make it to the show. Also, speed and defense are trivial. It's all about OBP.

Secondly, due to their financial restrictions, the A's claim that if they're going to spend money on draft picks, they must not miss. They feel the best way to get a value pick is to emphasize college players and to almost ignore talent from the high school level.

(i don't know what's said after this in the piece so i might be redundant here)

shanks is essentially arguing with michael lewis here. this may've been the model put forth in Moneyball (but i'm not certain and it's almost certainly even further oversimplified here), and it might well've been the a's model at the time, but it's got almost nothing to do w/ how the a's have won games over the past 3 years (or drafted this year). obv central thesis = finding undervalued quantities. those quantities of the moment, in beane's view, seem to be defense, and high school arms. beane's ability to adapt and the fluidity of his sytem are things everyone should be able to respect, and shanks not even bothering to take a deeper, or at least current, look at what's going on in oakland is telling.

Yes! in the book (and in your friendly neighborhood MBA-program), this is referred to as "exploiting inefficiencies in the market".

I seem to recall NYY & BOS both made the playoffs comfortably, ie not so important. And Jeetz was lionized for a week.

i mean is anyone calling torii hunter a jackass for banging into those garbagebag-lined twindome walls all the time?

[Reyes'] OBP is currently ranked 152nd among major-league qualifiers and yet he has been the lead-off man for the Mets in 85 games to date. I think there comes a point when a manager gets so sick of hearing a criticism that he digs in his heels and refuses to budge in spite of overwhelming evidence that he's been making a mistake. At this point, Willie Randolph probably thinks it would be a sign of weakness to give in to his critics and drop Reyes to the eighth spot in the order where he belongs. The only other explanation would be that he thinks batting Reyes leadoff helps the team. That can't possibly be the case, though, can it?

basically blows, but i'm a sucker for profiles.

by Gary Richards
Mercury News

Magical moments in life can pop up most unexpectedly.

Like on an airplane trip from Oakland to Chicago last December for my 13-year-old son, Matt, and my wife, Jan.

The seat next to Matt was empty, the last one on the flight. The plane was about to take off when a young man wearing a baseball hat, his wrist clearly healing from some injury, dashed down the aisle, asking if he could take the vacant seat.

As they settled in for the four-hour trip, Jan asked what happened to his hand. He said he got hit by a pitch. It didn't look like a rec league injury, so she asked more about it. ``It happened in spring training,'' he said.

``Oh, really? Who do you play for?'' she replied.

``The A's,'' said the young guy with the engaging smile.

His name: ``Nick Swisher. My dad, Steve, played for the Cubs for a few years.''

Matt sat silently. Later, he would say: ``Mom, when he said his name, my spine froze.''

Matt had devoured ``Moneyball,'' the book on the A's the year after they drafted Swisher. For nearly four hours, they talked baseball, about Nick's upbringing as the son of a big leaguer, more baseball, and his love for his grandmother who would pass away this summer.

They were like two kids, talking about their passion for the game. Only one had just graduated from Little League, and the other had just joined the big leagues.

Matt asked what time players got to the park for a night game. Nick said around midafternoon. They would hit, field and stretch, then head back to the clubhouse.

``Then guess what,'' Nick said. ``You ought to see the neat video games we play.''

For Matt, that plane ride was Christmas.

But the story gets better.

We went early to a game in June and headed toward the A's dugout. Matt wanted to say hi to Swisher. I feared Nick might not remember him. Just before the first pitch, Swisher started out of the dugout. ``Nick!'' Matt yelled.

Swisher began an obligatory wave, then spotted Matt. A big grin came over the face of the rookie right fielder, who cheerfully trotted over and chatted with the boy he remembered.

A few nights later, our daughter, Anne, called from the restaurant in Berkeley where she worked and said Swisher would be there for a radio show. Did Matt want to come?

For nearly half an hour, the two chatted like the pals they had become, Swisher excitedly telling his girlfriend, ``This is the kid from the airplane, the one I told you about!''

I came later to pick Matt up, and over the din of the crowd I whispered to Swisher, ``You have made a young boy very happy.''

And a Mom and Dad, too.