We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

Montreal is reporting 295 new #COVID19 cases today, but 222 of those infections occurred over the last week.

Ok, that makes more sense. So I suppose we've been seeing 80-90 new cases a day on average, which is fine-ish.

https://ricochet.media/en/3286/covid-sucks-unless-youre-a-billionaire-canadas-richest-rake-in-37-billion-since-march

The time has come to vote for the alternative aka the CPC.

400 cases in Ontario today, also the Bloc Québécois leader.

we had 165 in BC yesterday, which considered we have about a third of Ontario's population isn't great.

Have to believe that there'll be another lockdown in Ontario soon (or at least for Toronto/Peel/Ottawa).

O'Toole tested positive, Legault in quarantine.

This story is a little strange. I was told I had to take an English proficiency test when I applied to a US doctoral program but a five-minute phone conversation fixed that. Also striking that she apparently left Toronto for Vancouver because of PC cuts to education.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/09/18/bc-wants-this-veteran-english-teacher-to-prove-she-knows-the-language-she-feels-targeted-because-of-her-african-ancestry.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The coffee shop TV was talking about 400+ cases in Ontario--was hoping that meant yesterday, but no, second straight day. Does it ever happen that you get a two-day blip, or do the immutable laws of viruses automatically portend that we're looking at double this within a few days?

28 or so from one social group at Western U is skewing things a bit?

From what I’m seeing, the reception to Ford expanding the backrolled gathering restrictions seems pretty hostile. Doesn’t affect anything we’ve been doing tho - are this many people freaking out about it really having large parties?

(xpost) Could be, but even without, it's still almost 400 cases...I was in London earlier today getting my windshield fixed and we were talking about the Western outbreak.

Checked in on some of my most repellant federal con supporter acquaintance rantings, and it seems they suspect Trudeau is secretly plotting to have an election ASAP “while he is riding high on free handouts” and before the WE fallout and financial repercussions of covid aid manifest. An election which they also do not even actually want to even win (!!) because the new con govt could likely be a minority and would fall quickly due to having to take on same financial burden. Not a shred of the integrity or will to do the tough work they insist they’d be better at. They just want to play hot potato and poke sharp sticks.

586 new cases in Qc today. Not looking good at all.

US-focused but I thought this was somewhat interesting as an anti-lockdown perspective from a left pov. Not sure what to think yet: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/09/covid-19-pandemic-economy-us-response-inequality

It does seem a little disingenuous that MK defends Sweden's approach by saying its deaths per million is lower than the US's (the two are close) and then responds that deaths/1M pop is an unreliable metric when pressed on the vast difference between Sweden and its Nordic neighbours on that metric.

BC election time baby

feels like an epic Theresa May-esque miscalculation

Interesting:

A recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute suggests if an election were held right now, the NDP would win a massive victory.

The survey suggests 48 per cent of decided voters would choose the NDP, 29 per cent would vote Liberal, and 14 per cent would opt for the Greens.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7344215/british-columbians-heading-to-the-polls-on-october-24-in-fall-election/

xp Why would this be a miscalculation?

gut says they'll do well

lots of reasons...I think their support is soft, Adrian Dix had similar giant polling leads in 2013 that evaporated by election day. The NDP have never won 48 pct before, they've formed govt by winning around 41 pct and having the other parties split their vote.

Horgan's current popularity is due to a rally-round-the-flag effect and a perception of the NDP's competence in handling Covid. But the people who are most concerned about the pandemic are the ones who are likely to turn on them for calling an unnecessary election during a pandemic.

Children have gone back to school in the last couple weeks, the teachers who make up NDP's voting and financial base are feeling extremely unsupported by the govt. And there are already many exposures at schools: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-exposures-bc-schools-1.5732050

I also think people are underestimating the leaders of the Liberal and Green party...if the Liberals are good at anything, it's stoking media outrage about bullshit, and that's all they really need to do this campaign. The Greens just elected Sonia Furstenau, who is a much more genuine progressive than their previous leader and is a good home for voters pissed off about the NDP's stances on indigenous sovereignty and resource extraction.

on the other hand, they start with the advantage in money, organization, and they've been announcing big name MPs in many important swing ridings the last couple weeks. They've come up with a smart strategy to take over the majority, I just somehow doubt that voters will co-operate.

They are losing a lot of quite high-profile MLAs including numerous cabinet ministers who are stepping down, including my own MLA. I'm in a safe NDP seat but not sure about the others. Also, there are seats that could be competitive but there is such a short time for the NDP to even select a candidate for some of them let alone put together a decent enough campaign to unseat the incumbents.

afaik they are all fairly solid NDP seats. the question for me is why are so many ministers not standing for reelection, but I've heard less than glowing things about Horgan from people who have worked with him

The point is they have to win all the ones they won before, plus a few more. What are the ones they could possibly win from the Liberals right now? - the one in Coquitlam, Vancouver-False Creek, one or two in North Van or Vancouver Island? These ridings don't even have candidates yet. And the Liberal strongholds in the interior all seem safe as houses.

Sorry, I see Finn Donnely is running in Coquitlam Burke Mountain.

I'm assuming they've done some polling and this isn't just a roll of the dice

And Murray Rankin is running in Oak Bay. Wow, a lot happened in the last week.

Oh, it's only been three years since the last election?

Voters do punish that sometimes - how the NDP ended up winning ON in 1990.

They are certainly in a strong position right now and the polls are great. Just seems like the wrong time.

Yeah they're running Nathan Cullen in a safe interior seat too

Here's a decent round-up of the swing ridings: https://globalnews.ca/news/7344240/14-ridings-bc-election/

Any predictions for tonight?

Either way, I find it somewhat rich that the two party leaders likeliest to vote no-confidence are both self-isolating right now because they tested positive for covid.

I'm more concerned about the Breonna Taylor verdict tbh

Bit of a weird thing to post itt, but sure. Anyway, looks like one officer was indicted on criminal charges.

very bullshit charges

or charge singular rather

'Wanton endangerment' does indeed sound like bullshit. If only Taylor had merely been 'endangered'.

oh sorry, it is 3 charges of wanton endangerment - for firing into another apartment.

but I'm not overly concerned about tonight's throne speech etc. don't think there'll be a no confidence vote but don't really care if there is - grits are ahead in the polls in any case, don't think we have much risk of tory rule anytime soon and that's really all that federal politics comes down to for me

We've had CPAC on but Payette seems delayed?

Not sure what to expect. Probably more health care funding but hopefully some coordinated plan to fix LTC. UBI seems unlikely but they might extend CERB and expand EI.

Oh wait I think they're being valled to the Senate? I have been drifting obv

I took out the garbage and apparently missed the announcement of a natl child care program and EI coverage for the self-employed and gig workers?

Closing stock option loopholes and taxing digital giants

Nice.

"this is no time for austerity"

thank fuck

See, Simon, this place isn't so bad.

Moving towards universal pharmacare and a rare disease strategy!

Cue hand-wringing about fiscal responsibility.

Pharmacare would be huge