People that you've never heard of, people that are in the dark shadows -- US Politics September 2020

https://i0.wp.com/31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m3rjgeGVv91rrgd02o2_500.gif?ssl=1

Really wanna hear more about the planes full of thugs in black with all kinds of gear.

I think I've heard enough about that to believe it's true.

Anyway.

While one should always be alert to the possibility of systematic polling errors in either direction, this (alleging that polls are biased by 5-6 points against Trump because of shy Trump voters) is completely insane.https://t.co/ESIk22qjZl pic.twitter.com/AcWwaWojD9

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 1, 2020

here's a potential discussion topic to kick off what's sure to be a very normal and quiet month of September, 2020.

josh marshall has been bringing up the issue of how the biden administration will (or will not) hold the trump administration accountable for what happened. he thinks that 1) the scale of corruption is so huge, we need an audit. not in the form of house investigations or trials or litigation, but just an accounting of what has happened. and 2) if we don't plan for this audit now, during these months, it won't happen.

june 30: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/biden-should-commit-to-and-trump-should-be-warned-the-cover-ups-end-in-january
july 22: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/folks-the-executive-branch-needs-an-audit
september 1: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/accountability-should-be-on-the-ballot-now

here's a bit from today:

But the issue is less plans – there are a lot of ways to go about it. The issue is the will, laying the groundwork now and doing some planning in advance. As I’ve noted many times now, the mix of reconstruction, on-going catastrophe and politics will be so overwhelming in a possible new Biden administration that this kind of accounting and audit will almost certainly fall by the wayside if there isn’t a clear plan and set of commitments going in. Yet I see little concrete evidence of it two months out from the election. I have actually thought of putting together some basic, general text to use for getting commitments from members of Congress and political leaders, even though that’s a bit outside my comfort zone at this point in the site’s history and my role in it.

Some think that planning in advance is either bad karma (you’ll jinx it) or shows a certain presumptuous: focus on winning. Don’t get ahead of yourselves. But this seems wrongheaded on a few fronts. It is part of the accountability. You say what you plan to do in advance, just as you do with more traditional public policy. Most specifically, the public should know that accountability for corruption is on the ballot. Restoring constitutional government is on the ballot.

But what are we talking about? I would say a firm commitment to institute an orderly review of public corruption and law breaking under the previous administration using first and foremost the records of the government of the United States. This isn’t all that’s required. Far from it. But a new administration will inherit the books, as it were, the records of the US government. Yes, there is likely to be some document destruction and some things will have gone intentionally unrecorded. But governments are records producing machines. It’s simply not possible not to create a fairly ample record. There are no privilege issues by definition because the holder of the relevant privileges is the current leader of the executive branch. That’s where to start.

anyway, what do you all think? if/when we get to a biden presidency in jan 21, what do you want his administration to do re: the trump nightmare?

an audit is the best you can expect I think

1) the scale of corruption is so huge, we need an audit. not in the form of house investigations or trials or litigation, but just an accounting of what has happened. and 2) if we don't plan for this audit now, during these months, it won't happen.

i should say, that's my own (really brief) summary of what he thinks, and it's not complete. for example, marshall doesn't say that there should NOT be trials and litigation, etc, just that at bare minimum we need a commitment from biden and democratic leadership to audit the trump administration's activities in the first place

trying to reduce multiposts on the same topic in the 9th month of 2020, sorry, but one more thought. i think this bolded part is really important:

Some think that planning in advance is either bad karma (you’ll jinx it) or shows a certain presumptuous: focus on winning. Don’t get ahead of yourselves. But this seems wrongheaded on a few fronts. It is part of the accountability. You say what you plan to do in advance, just as you do with more traditional public policy. Most specifically, the public should know that accountability for corruption is on the ballot. Restoring constitutional government is on the ballot.

The Obama administration's disinterest to Bush corruption hurt him more than he thought. If Both Sides do it, then you vote for the Outsider.

Also:

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president’s reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation’s cities.

Trump’s decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016

The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest.

During the Democratic convention, Biden gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 2 points; Trump then regained some of that ground during his convention, a week-by-week comparison of the poll’s tracking shows.

An audit and/or investigations obviously need to happen, AND they need to pass or tighten up a lot of laws to make clear that the shit Trump's gotten away with in terms of mining the office for financial gain is really and truly illegal (because clearly we can't rely on the emoluments clause).

But I sort of doubt much of that happens, especially not if the Senate doesn't flip. There will be a lot of tut-tutters warning that focusing on Trump will make the Democrats look vindictive and just rile up the right.

I know this gets brought up every week but the fact that people legitimately believe this man is a strong and capable leader is baffling to me, how are all his voters not extremely embarrassed by this

It never ends! Now they are trying to say that your favorite President, me, went to Walter Reed Medical Center, having suffered a series of mini-strokes. Never happened to THIS candidate - FAKE NEWS. Perhaps they are referring to another candidate from another Party!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2020

(fwiw I don't think anyone is actually reporting he had a bunch of strokes)

He sounds like a newspaper comments section in the form of a garbage bag filled with rotten mayo

Meanwhile, a local Republican office-holder on my Facebook feed is posting the thing about how antifa.com takes you straight to Biden's campaign page, and she clearly does not understand that this is an internet prank. (Nor do the people commenting on it.) Oh Boomers.

anyway, what do you all think? if/when we get to a biden presidency in jan 21, what do you want his administration to do re: the trump nightmare?

I think a huge difference is that unlike past former presidents, Trump will not go gently into retirement. He will propel himself right back into the public eye, as a businessman, as a TV star, as an obnoxious asshole at every turn. Except that he will do it as a heavy scrutinized citizen, which is to say, he (and his family) will doubtless commit more crimes but likely get caught this time as it happens, and be at the mercy of courts everywhere without a Get Out of Jail Free card. So yeah, it would be nice to get an accounting of all the shit he did in office, but primarily to ensure new laws, rules and stopgaps to make sure it doesn't happen again. As for his own criminality and malfeasance, Trump Inc. will have nowhere to turn and few allies to turn to.

yeah I'm curious how the GOP treats him after his term is over. I mean they don't *really* like him do they?

Meanwhile, a local Republican office-holder on my Facebook feed is posting the thing about how antifa.com takes you straight to Biden's campaign page, and she clearly does not understand that this is an internet prank. (Nor do the people commenting on it.) Oh Boomers.

unless someone intervened, shit like this would get all the way to some senate investigation led by chuck grassley, trying to figure out whether it's true that people can own websites, and asking the tough questions, like what is a website and how does it change?

But their voters do!

xpost

The Obama administration's disinterest to Bush corruption hurt him more than he thought. If Both Sides do it, then you vote for the Outsider.

imo it hurt The Democratic Brand, not O himself, but otherwise otm

There's a few toads like Matt Gaetz that seem similar enough to Trump that I believe actually like him. For the most part he's the devil's bargain they've signed to achieve their nefarious ends.

whatever happened to gaetz's cuban teenage "son"?

He pulled off the mask to reveal he's really Falwell's catamite.

the important thing is that matt gaetz can't say racist things, on account of it being impossible due to his racist son. and actually, YOU'RE the racist

sorry, second "racist" was supposed to be "cuban". i don't know if his son is racist, but he probably is

Even if GOP dicks want to appease their own base (what an apt term), there's not much they can do to protect Trump out of office. Citizen Trump and his family are sitting ducks, and they know it.

remember when we would've all been shocked at "your favorite President, me"?

sad in a Ms Piggy accent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n0HkwWpjR8

at bare minimum we need a commitment from biden and democratic leadership to audit the trump administration's activities in the first place

this doesn't sound like the kind of bipartisan healing that the DNC promised us

biden promised light, not darkness, so an audit fits in well with that imagery

president did not have a series of mini-strokes tells story about imaginary antifa super soldiers on a plane with his imaginary friend https://t.co/trCi3ntN0J

— kilgore trout, non mini-stroke haver (@KT_So_It_Goes) September 1, 2020

"Rioters, looters, a guy fucking an alligator...in short:

MONEY PLANE!"

I've seen a lot of Con Air jokes.

anyway, what do you all think? if/when we get to a biden presidency in jan 21, what do you want his administration to do re: the trump nightmare?

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, September 1, 2020 11:14 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

this platform was the best argument for putting warren on the ticket:

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/restoring-integrity-and-competence-to-government-after-trump-1fda0e1cc4c5

re: "i did not have a series of strokes", seems like trump's people should remind him what happens when you ask people "don't think of an elephant".

thanks for that warren link, caek. i hope biden is amenable to her plan, and it's heartening that so much of it seems like it can be accomplished, if the will is there.

even with her plan, though, so much of it seems to ride on this aspect:

-*Establish a Justice Department Task Force to investigate corruption during the Trump administration and to hold government officials accountable for illegal activity.
Donald Trump has run the most corrupt administration in history. He was impeached for withholding foreign aid in an effort to try to benefit his re-election campaign. He has enriched himself and his business through the power of his office. And there are public reports of potentially illegal corruption in every corner of his administration. If we are to move forward to restore public confidence in government and deter future wrongdoing, we cannot simply sweep this corruption under the rug in a new administration. That’s why I will direct the Justice Department to establish a task force to investigate violations by Trump administration officials of federal bribery laws, insider trading laws, and other anti-corruption and public integrity laws, and give that task force independent authority to pursue any substantiated criminal and civil violations. I have also committed to establishing a task force to investigate accusations of serious violations by immigration officials during the Trump era.

it's going to take a lot of political will (or integrity, or courage?) to do this properly.

The choice of AG is going to be pretty crucial. You have to start with an assumption that Republicans/QAnoners will see any and every effort to investigate the Trumps as further evidence of the Justice Department's ongoing conspiracy against him. Need somebody smart enough to work the politics of it and resilient enough to take the heat. Not sure that person exists.

I hear Robert Mueller might be available to investigate the Trump administration's wrongdoing.

warren should be AG (if she's done running for president, because i assume being AG in the present climate is not a good electoral career move)

Yeah, she's got enough DGAF to do it and to tell Biden to back off if he tries to rein her in. Also why he might not choose her, of course. (This may just be fantasy football, but at least it's fun to think about.)

Sadly, Bob Barr's career won't suffer a bit for his having been Trump's footstool. He'll be living in a mansion, smoking fat cigars and raking in money until he dies. Or is sent to prison.

I misread that as "fartstool," and even though I don't know what that would be, it seemed right.

Btw I'll be honest, I don't see the point of questioning Asshole's physical health. If he's too unhealthy to be president then maybe he'll die, which is good. Mental health is more of a concern, especially considering the point where he started from.

It doesn't help that it seems like he's been having mini-strokes in public for the last few years.

I see though this new thing comes from him stumbling on stage on Friday?

pic.twitter.com/iti6ysnV7t

— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) September 1, 2020

Is he an organ donor? Maybe we could lie and tell him he has to donate them all now, while he is alive

Being someone whose own father has had a series of mini-strokes that has made him barely able to speak, i wish the gen public didn't go "lol stroke" every time he wobbles.

(Not that i don't make the occasional stroke joke, but every time his knee bends we get pointless speculation on his health from internet hacks.)

it's one of the most annoying things in the entire world

see also the ongoing discussion of biden's senility

our president can't even function! no, that's not true, the it's the opposing candidate that can't even function!

*meanwhile, the president and democratic candidate clearly function on the tv screen in the background*

JOE BIDEN LITERALLY HAS NO IDEA WHERE HE IS, HE DOES NOT KNOW WHAT THE WORDS HE SAYS MEAN, HE IS JUST GUESSING AND GETTING REALLY LUCKY OVER AND OVER, HIS STREAK WILL END SOON

no you are wrong, it is the president who does not understand time and space and reality, he is the one who is just making up the words and getting lucky. i know a student nurse and they told me that every single doctor on earth understands that

Xps, o ok

xp ha that thought did cross my mind right before hitting submit, but earlier today I learned my partner didn't know the term TERF, so...

by the way how does anyone think Trump will handle having his mic cut off next time? I don't see why they're even bothering having another debate.

Sorry guys, that was rather, um, recondite on my part.

Biden's team wants him to debate again, but I think he'd be better off cruising around on a No Malarkey whistlestop trip. Maybe on a train. Seriously.

I just don't see what there is to gain. Who are the upcoming moderators? Who cares? We know exactly how Trump will behave. And if they cut his mic he will storm over and use someone else's mic. Though I wonder if it would help him or hurt him to just storm out.

I guess it depends what his goals are.

Like Alfred said upthread, second and third debates are less important, so the optics are better if he agrees to a rematch with Orangina.

I know he can't exactly back out without looking bad, but why? As someone posted, it's like debating an air horn.

Speaking of whistle stop touring:

Fact: if you were to subtract all '16 votes from Westmoreland Co. (PA), Macomb (MI) and Waukesha (WI), Hillary Clinton would be president today.

This is some of the most valuable real estate on the political map, and Biden is hitting it in a way Clinton didn't. https://t.co/2ghQWog3WT

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 30, 2020

The secret Biden strategists probably won't share publicly: being seen in "forgotten" small towns actually helps you the most w/ suburban voters who haven't set foot in these places in years, but are impressed you did.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 30, 2020

It's just so weird to go through this pantomime of debates when everybody's reaction is ultimately just shut the fuck up.

These debate are like watching the shittiest sitcom ever, then demanding a Christmas special and movie.

And then going to see the movie in a virtually empty theatre in the middle of a pandemic, and sitting next to the only unoccupied seat, a guy eating his food loudly while talking on a cell phone without a mask.

I guess Trump's debate coaches were Chris Christie and Rowdy Rudy... how'd that work out?
I think he's be better off with Gilbert Gottfried and Alex Jones.

occupied seat, sorry, angry/beer.

they should just cut his mic entirely and have Gilbert Godfried improvise lines.

It's a dimwitted, prehistoric reaction. 'Biden stutters and he doesn't roar as much as his opponent, which makes him look weak, so in order to prove his strength he must never back down from a challenge!' See also:

bear say hi to me

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of Trump whenever he has the floor.

WORLDSTAR!!

LOOOOL

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of blasting "WAP" over Trump whenever he has the floor.

Fixed.

It's approximately 38% pantomime with a vaguely noble and high-minded intention: "let the voters meet the candidates and hear their policy proposals, while also seeing how they react under pressure!"

It's probably 39% a morbid NASCAR-esque hope that the weird sui generis artificial environment somehow produces an undeniable, un-walk-back-able gaffe.

That leaves 23% for hey, ratings, and attention, and opportunities for the pundit class to punditificate on who "won," who "lost," and who held steady.

Next debate Biden should take out his phone and start taking video of Trump whenever he has the floor.

Kinda childish. Wouldn't it be better if he just repeats everything Trump says in a prissy/baby voice?

W.A.S.P. is gonna be the musical guest for next debate

I could see Chris Holmes being maga

Gee, what could possibly have happened in 2016 that would cause people to not want to put faith in polls? I can't imagine.

― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, September 30, 2020 6:54 PM bookmarkflaglink

Cos they don't understand polls and odds?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

Many forecasters (other than Sam Wang) had Trump with 15-35% odds to win on election day. If the average person is told their loved one has a 15-35% chance of dying from a disease, they freak out. They hear that Trump has a 15-35% chance of winning, they heard AHH SHIT, IT'S OVER!!!

I'm not going to be revisionist, many of us (other than k3v and a few others who were rightfully skeptical) treated it like a slam dunk because a) we believed the narrative that Trump couldn't win, b) he had done several things in the previous month that would end the average campaign, and c) maybe we were naively faithful that America couldn't possibly vote this lunatic in. Early voting also looked promising.

But...we (me especially) were wrong.

Also worth mentioning: one of the 538 guys (forget who) posted a chart that compared the post-first debate polls with the final results for the last 10 elections. I didn’t save it but the gist of it was, if you’re behind late, the first debate is really your last chance to make up real ground. I don’t see any indication that Trumps uh...performance last night would move the needle in a positive direction.

And even Romney's swing after debate 1 self-corrected.

Tulsi Gabbard (you remember her - she ran for president once!) is now working with Dennis Prager.

Tulsi is seamlessly transitioning into the Prager U grift.

pic.twitter.com/9ppI26TpZM

— Héctor E. Alcalá (@Hector_E_Alcala) September 30, 2020

wow, first I'd heard of that

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/inside-right-wing-youtube-turning-millennials-conservative-prageru-video-dennis-prager/

Lol Trump people whining about "liberal moderator" Chris Wallace now

His wife, Candice Parscale, also released a statement on Wednesday denying that her husband was physically abusive toward her after telling police days earlier that Parscale was responsible for several bruises on her body, according to a police report.

"The statements I made on Sunday have been misconstrued, let it be clear my husband was not violent towards me that day or any day prior," she said, according to Politico.

A police detective at the scene wrote in a report that after asking Candice Parscale about bruises on her body, she "stated Brad Parscale hits her."

Another police officer noted the incident as well in a police report, writing, "While speaking with Candice I observed several bruises on both arms (photographs were taken and uploaded into evidence), which she advised occurred a few days ago, during a physical altercation with Bradley, which she did not report."

you know, why doesn't someone start up a newspaper that only publishes POSITIVE news!? i bet that would sell like hotcakes

Not sure if this goes here but obviously a trump taking point by this racist person

A Texas woman explains why she doesn't want affordable housing in her neighborhood. I think this clip is @jbouie and @GeeDee215 bait https://t.co/RrglpXg66A pic.twitter.com/fZzloORRe7

— Almaqah (@_Almaqah) October 1, 2020

good morning!

Cos they don't understand polls and odds?

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

Many forecasters (other than Sam Wang) had Trump with 15-35% odds to win on election day. If the average person is told their loved one has a 15-35% chance of dying from a disease, they freak out. They hear that Trump has a 15-35% chance of winning, they heard AHH SHIT, IT'S OVER!!!

I'm not going to be revisionist, many of us (other than k3v and a few others who were rightfully skeptical) treated it like a slam dunk because a) we believed the narrative that Trump couldn't win, b) he had done several things in the previous month that would end the average campaign, and c) maybe we were naively faithful that America couldn't possibly vote this lunatic in. Early voting also looked promising.

But...we (me especially) were wrong.

― LaRusso Auto (Neanderthal), Wednesday, September 30, 2020 8:00 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

If you are interested in understanding how and why humans are absolutely horrible at estimating probabilities (as well as understanding a host of other biases and heuristics), I highly recommend Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, which deals with prospect theory. It is very, very dense, but was utterly fascinating to me: https://readingraphics.com/the-prospect-theory-fourfold-pattern-of-influences/

October October. What's the thread title.

"Will you shut up, man?" might feel fresh for at least another 9 to 12 hours

the sentiment will be relevant at least until the end of the month

New thread created.

Not sure if this goes here but obviously a trump taking point by this racist person

A Texas woman explains why she doesn't want affordable housing in her neighborhood. I think this clip is @jbouie and @GeeDee215 bait https://t.co/RrglpXg66A pic.twitter.com/fZzloORRe7
— Almaqah (@_Almaqah) October 1, 2020
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, October 1, 2020 7:55 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

worth noting: her house is ugly as fuck

"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020