"The August 2020 US Politics Thread is highly thought of, but nobody likes me. It can only be my personality. That's all."

Like many things in recent years, QAnon started out hilarious and has become less so as it has gained political traction.

was driving through a rural area on saturday (on the mason-dixon line!) and saw a very official-looking and huge TRUMP JFK JR. 2020 banner planted in someone's front yard

I had to look that one up.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/qanon-jfk-jr-conspiracy-theory-854938/

Tangentially, during the spring of 2016, I took my daughter to a "fairy festival" at a farm just across the Pennsylvania border and just about every other farm in the surrounding area had numerous Trump banners lining their streets.

The “suburban housewife” will be voting for me. They want safety & are thrilled that I ended the long running program where low income housing would invade their neighborhood. Biden would reinstall it, in a bigger form, with Corey Booker in charge!

what a racist dope

hey it worked on 53% of white women once

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkVl1zfM_G4

obv McConnell or even Graham would be bigger/ better trophies, but I’m incredibly excited to (hopefully) see Collins eat shit in November

TRUMP JESUS FUKKIN KRIST JUNIOR

Our forecast is up!!!

It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.https://t.co/ajG88SznSA

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020

Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!!

(Clinton 71%, Trump 29%)

As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020

My contribution to the current political discourse:

Kamala? More like Ka-buena!

— DJP (@djperry1973) August 12, 2020

Más allá de Kabuena y Kamala

just learned that her senate office staff's softball team is called the oxford kamalas

I am concerned by how deeply my nerdiness runs given how hard I laughed at that

who gives a fuck about etc

So, because Trump was told he was in trouble with "Suburban Women" he automatically assumes "Housewives"? Is that it? Because his brain is stuck in 1968?

I hate that we once gave Silver attention.

Silver was more right than anyone in 2016 about Trump's chances. I just hate being reminded of it.

hey it worked on 53% of white women once

― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will)

i wanted to come up with the sad addendum to that (the % of white men who voted for him), and ran across this slight fact-check:

Donald Trump Didn't Really Win 52% of White Women in 2016

tl;dr - it was more like 47%. 52-53% was based on election night exit polls, but later on pew analyzed it and found it was more like 47% of white women, and 62% of white men.

Probabilities are hard!

anyway, now i can go back to my sad addendum:

...and it worked on 62% of white men as well! :)

Nate Silver is obnoxious but he's usually right

sadly

white men are basically irredeemable at this point.

that said, between a raging pandemic, the dismantling of the post office, and all sorts of economic records being set (mostly bad ones) idk how you even project this election right now

Today in transparently false email subject lines:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfOv5wuWAAEtIRm.jpg

Hopefully his wife is near enough to ensure that they aren't impure.

kind of fascinated by the difference in how they approach fundraising emails; Dems use a lot of defeatist garbage like "it's over...Trump won....imagine waking up to that news because you didn't donate $5 + 6x match" while the GOP tends to be mostly "Strong Daddy is disappointed because you're not on his list of patriots this month"...kinda sums up the two parties honestly

mike pence locks himself into a completely masculine room before composing his emails, to avoid the chance of impurity

xps Mike's Pencées

Mike is exceedingly careful never to air his Pencées in public.

I'm starting to get almost hopeful that this USPS fuckery is going to really backfire on Trump.

Our neighborhood group email (which is 95% of the time only used by the retirees with a lot of extra time on their hands) has been really complaining about the lack of mail delivery in the past few weeks and someone shared an article about Dejoy, they are furious about their mail being fucked with. Granted, I live in a left-leaning town and there is probably 60 Biden or Sanders yard signs for every 1 Trump sign, but it's seemed to really rile up the normally politically averse.

At the same time, my mom lives in the heart of a Trump adoring rural area and she told me a lot of her friends are really getting pissed off about it too.

Some anecdotal data:

Last week a friend of mine had a small envelope mailed via USPS to him from a city 70 miles away, with tracking. The package spent 2 days in a warehouse 2800 miles away clear across the country before arriving after 5 business days.

Our nieces 400 miles away mailed us 2 stamped envelopes 3 weeks ago and they have yet to arrive.

it doesn't seem smart, given the location and demographics of the bulk of republican voters.

Banking on decades of slow/lazy/etc. mail carrier jokes making people blame the Post Office instead of Trump.

Another reason the post office mess could backfire is that it's really underscoring that people, literally everyone, needs and uses the USPS for a million reasons other than voting.

xpost that is what is happening to my nextdoor feed, which straddles mainly white neighborhoods, half working class and half rich/very rich. people have been complaining about service at the two post offices since way before this started. mostly complaints with racial overtones about clerks' attitudes. there are plenty of people who recognize it's because of trump, but also many blaming postal workers and clamoring for privatization. it's infuriating. i've had slow service at the post office but not in a way that seriously impacts my life and not worse than any private retail outlet.

Another reason the post office mess could backfire is that it's really underscoring that people, literally everyone, needs and uses the USPS for a million reasons other than voting.

Yep. A lot of stories circulating already about retirees and veterans not getting their prescriptions delivered in time. This is going to blow up in these assholes' faces in a major way.

can i cling to two truths?

1) the post office is terrible and many of the employees are outright abusive and incompetent
2) the post office is necessary and good the employees deserve our support

totally

I think that first truth is mostly bullshit

then you should try going to a post-office

The "Post Office" as a delivery service is pretty incredible - $9 to get a package from California to New York in three days, with a negligible amount of damage or loss (much less damage than FedEx, which is a complete monstrosity toward its employees).

okay, i agree with that

USPS employees are not any ruder or more entitled than any state or federal employees I run into, the majority of whom are at best courteous and helpful and at worst complacent.

IMO - USPS employees are not any ruder or more entitled than any state or federal employees I run into, the majority of whom are at best courteous and helpful and at worst complacent.

yep

xp as a former state employee and current federal employee, that is otm. have also dealt with all manner of county employees. this study has led me to conclude that a significant proportion of workers in every government (and probably non-government) agency are incompetent or rude but i'm ok with it. i would never replace any of them with a fedex.

Customer facing jobs are torture, none of them are paid enough for the misery, people aren't going to blow sunshine up your ass after they've gotten yelled at 12 times that day by a Karen, no one in that customer-facing job has enough power to effect change on the systems that are causing your misery, ie "why is my package missing?! why don't you scan it at every stop?!" or whatever.

I have never understood postal workers' reputation for hostility and/or incompetence — I've had the same PO box for well over a decade and lost/missing packages have been so rare I couldn't even give you an accurate count of how many times it's happened. Less than half a dozen. Every time I have to stand in line, yeah, service can be slow, but it's because the person in line either doesn't speak English, doesn't know how to explain what they want, is doing something wrong, or all of those, not because the clerk is incompetent. The clerks do everything they can to help. Shit, the lady who fetches my packages when I have a pickup slip knows me by name. She's great.

I've never dealt with a bad USPS employee.