Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

Warren isn't being considered because she brings nothing to the table.

i think she'd be the best VP of the people on the list. there's that.

i'm not sure any of the people under consideration bring much to the table electorally if that's what you mean.

They don't bring much but they bring more than absolute zero.

in a purely "maximize democratic turnout sense", warren is probably the best pick fwiw, at least according to polling.

By age alone, having someone who can't collect Social Security alongside creaky Joe is the best plan.

There's also the "better to be in the Senate than VP" factor.

i mean i know you're not personally a fan, but the idea that warren doesn't increase the popularity of the ticket with the "base" (i.e. people who donate, canvass, etc.) more than any other candidate is preposterous.

there's a ton of reasons not to pick her but if your reason is she does not help win the election more than any other possibility, i'd like to hear you're reasoning.

yeah, just off the top of my head kamala harris would be a bigger loser VP choice than warren. i mean would tick the POC box but nothing more

I have my doubts that someone who appealed entirely to upper-middle class white liberals is maximizing Democratic turnout tbh.

(Given that the difference in 2012 and 2016 turnout and share among POC would have won the election for Hillary.)

i mean come on, you can just google this stuff, we don't have to argue about what a bunch of people most of us are nothing like think.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-poll-results-of-independents-employment-income

"Warren strongly favored by lower-income, unemployed voters and those still unsure about Biden"

i know she's not bernie but be serious.

For women of the stature and intelligence of Warren or Harris, Biden might not be the ideal man to work for. I'm sure they know it.

I don't particularly like or care about anyone being talked about for VP, obviously, but Warren in particular's value seems to be nothing more than a projection by her fans.

same results a month ago too: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2020/6/22/elizabeth-warren-leads-the-vice-presidential-choice.

Warren's replacement would be appointed by a GOP governor, for one thing

Biden is quoted in that CNN article as saying the four black women are "among" the candidates he's considering. So the list isn't limited to them. I'd be surprised if Warren weren't still in the mix, especially given her polling among both white and black Democrats.

FWIW, Obama administration alums Dan Pfeiffer and Alyssa Mastromonaco recently did a podcast on the VP selection process. At the end, he predicted Biden would choose Harris; she predicted Rice.

Sean McElwee's head of the Warren cult of personality.

do you think he invented 1000 people?

So of course we should discount every bit of polling that Data for Progress produces.

what is with this warren hate kink? still? tiresome as fuck.

Independent voters who report they are at least considering voting for Biden but aren’t enthusiastic about doing so, Elizabeth Warren is the overwhelmingly most preferred candidate by four to one (21 percent, with no other candidate earning over 5 percent)

this is not a house effect like a rasmussen poll. this is either real or it's just total fraud.

Elizabeth Warren’s support is higher among Independent voters earning under $60,000 per year, with her modal supporter earning $20,000-30,000 per year. Harris’s support is higher among Independent voters earning over $70,000 per year, and with her strongest support coming from those earning more than $150,000 per year.

i'm sorry she's not the worst option milo based on your own criteria. must be tough for you.

Yes. We should probably look askance at polling from one of her loudest advocates.

Like name recognition might be a factor?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/biden-vice-president-voters.html

I think Warren has much better name recognition than the other veep choices, which is why she gets those poll results (maybe that's a good reason to pick her, idk)

xp gah

Yes. We should probably look askance at polling from one of her loudest advocates.

lmao you are delusional. it's a factor of 5!

Susan Rice has a lot of ability and experience, but as a VP nominee she would have to do something she's never done before: go out and campaign for election to a public office. She's successfully avoided that arena of politics so far and I suspect it is not to her strong point.

I'm sure name recognition is a factor. That's completely different from McElwee personally juking the stats.

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

A brief rundown of recent polls and what to make of them
Polling so far has highlighted two key takeaways. One is that Warren’s and Harris’s respective profiles currently dwarf those of other contenders whose names have been floated, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Rep. Val Demings (D-FL). The other is that neither lawmaker is a runaway favorite. In the Yahoo News/YouGov and Monmouth University polls, neither Warren nor Harris secured a majority of respondents’ support, a sign that many voters are still open to other options.

Warren has ranked highly in several polls, particularly among younger voters.

In the mid-June Yahoo News/YouGov survey, Warren was up by 6 points with 30 percent support, compared with Harris’s 24 percent. They were followed by Abrams and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), both of whom picked up 14 percent backing. (Klobuchar has since withdrawn her name from consideration.)

As captured by the YouGov survey, Warren’s support isn’t the same across different demographics: She had particularly strong backing among voters aged 18-29 and 30-44, while she and Harris were more closely tied among voters ages 45-64 and 65 and older. Harris and Abrams both led Warren among Black voters, with 25 percent and 22 percent support, respectively, compared with Warren’s 15 percent.

Meanwhile, in Monmouth’s June poll, which surveyed Democratic primary voters predominantly located in Iowa and New Hampshire, Harris was the top choice overall. She picked up 28 percent support, followed by Warren with 13 percent, Klobuchar with 12 percent, and Abrams with 10 percent. The June USA Today/Suffolk poll, conducted more recently, also showed that Democratic voters were most excited about Harris, Abrams, and Warren, in that order.

warren on the ticket would make me excited tbh

Elizabeth Warren’s support is higher among Independent voters earning under $60,000 per year, with her modal supporter earning $20,000-30,000 per year. Harris’s support is higher among Independent voters earning over $70,000 per year, and with her strongest support coming from those earning more than $150,000 per year.

ah, is this due to name recognition or polling fraud?

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

look, she might not be the best pick for all sorts of reasons. but your claim was she offers "absolute zero" electorally, whereas the other possibilities don't, which is just preposterous on its face.

She doesn't increase turnout among POC - the difference in 2012 and 2016 turnout and share among POC would have won the election for Hillary.
Her primary coalition was 'very liberal' graduate-degreed whites with high incomes - not a demographic that's going to stay home or vote for Trump.

The key sentence from McElwee - "Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite among voters who reported they would vote for Joe Biden." That's not really an argument in her favor.

Warren would be a great pick if Biden resigns the day after his inauguration

if you consider Warren as nothing more than a local politician who can deliver MA (which doesn't need to be delivered) then milo's contention would make some sense. but she has a national profile and national standing and can deliver votes and donations from many, many states, so he's wrong.

Warren would be a great pick if Biden resigns the day after his inauguration
― Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Tuesday, July 21, 2020 4:18 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is part of my rationale

^ this is a solid part of my hoping she is considered, the main part is that I want someone likely to regulate massive companies to fuck and, if possible, beyond

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

I also think that someone actively campaigning on the "fuck billionaires" plank might resonate p well with voters in the second half of 2020

plus leaving the Senate for a cabinet position might not be worth it in the way VP to a POTUS with no fixed agenda could be

The key sentence from McElwee - "Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite among voters who reported they would vote for Joe Biden." That's not really an argument in her favor.

this is the key sentence if you want to ignore the other sentences, sure.

real brain worms stuff here.

Even among the people who are "upset" about voting for Biden, Warren is the contender who commands the most support. Granted, she polls behind "someone else," but well ahead of any other named choice.

not exactly a ringing endorsement there

do you think he should not pick a vp?

not exactly a ringing endorsement there

― k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Tuesday, July 21, 2020

so what would you like in November?

Warren's replacement would be appointed by a GOP governor, for one thing

yes, that's the most important thing