love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

They thought they were worse off, some of them blamed migrants, some of them believed Brexit and Johnson would make them better off, and they had no faith in Labour to make them better off. We know all the reasons for that last part.

My reading of 2017 and 2019 was that people got the message that they were less well off but that kicking migrants was the way forward to prosperity, hence the re-election of the party of Queen, country, austerity, Brexit and Windrush.

Good points in here! Whats your reading for why the message was less succesful prior to 2017

BoJolyon.

There was no offer of anything from Lab in the Ed M years.

Just the place we are going back to, funnily enough, but it may not matter as much, depends on the state of the country we all love so much in 2024.

Thinking also it will be 13 years since the last lab government so that might be long enough for a change of colour for a lot of people. And maybe the climate crisis will not have hit us by then in a significant way.

Can agree with that for sure, what about June 2017 though

What about it?

I misread your post just realized, you were including the 2017 and 2019 voters together, for me there was more of a difference in the two groups

The fact that Lab gained seats is good evidence that Lab had an offer, but it's all hard to disentangle from Brexit, whose result Labour were keen to honour.

That's... quite the claim

Hi Andrew

Anyway wtf

114 uk coronavirus deaths recorded yesterday. almost double the number of the previous day. today tories announce they are halting the publication of the daily death toll. i feel so awful for everyone mourning right now while the media and the government turn their backs.

— Sita Balani (@sitainshort) July 18, 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53443724?

So now we are just getting hospital death figures until the govt "investigation" into how the figures are counted, copping their moves from BOlsonaro

Wait what the fuck? Are they going to hope that no one notices? Surely the NHS will keep publishing the hospital death toll or is that going to be suppressed as well?

Got to say lads I think this might backfire.

No the hospital death toll continues, just heard it ont radio 29

I need to look into this again when I get home, it's pissing it down and my phone is saturated!

Got to say lads I think this might backfire.

― Matt DC, Saturday, 18 July 2020 15:10 (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Have always regarded you as a purveyor of OTM-ness on these threads but lately you've been suggesting very logical 'the Tories won't get away with this' and then logic itself breaks and they get away with it. Not really an indictment on you tbf

However today is the first day the government will not be releasing an overall figure including deaths in all settings amid claims the data is "distorted".

there is some skulduggery going on here.

It doesn't have to be fatal to the government to backfire, it just has to provoke a big argument. Of course they're going to 'get away with it', they have an eighty seat majority, but they can't go on piling up these breaches of trust indefinitely.

Also if you stop publishing the data people will conclude you've got something to hide, that it's about to get worse, which isn't exactly going to get more people out there spending money.

This could get spicy.

Hey @spikedonline, can you please retract this falsehood? That’s not what I said.

My comments were about the way in which the treatment of Shamima Begum opens the door to other children of migrants to be treated as unequal before the law on the basis of their parents’ heritage. pic.twitter.com/l9UOwZJqhv

— Ash Sarkar (@AyoCaesar) July 18, 2020

Those disapproval rates will stay low as long as he plays the narrow parliamentary game that bypasses most voters but for now keeps Tory press off his back, the operative words being for now as the billionaire proprietors know they can play a long game as they did with Miliband

— Stephen Smith (@SteveNickSmith) July 18, 2020

Now Starmer's approval rating is dipping as the well as Labour being 8-10 points behind but at least he hasn't got Corbyn's disapproval rating ... yet!

hmm remember when Corbyn was anything from 3pts ahead to 5 points behind and people kept repeating this blatant falsehood he was 10 pts behind.

instead, Johnson’s government is handing out vouchers to encourage people back to restaurants in the middle of a pandemic and trying to cajole businesses to bring an end to home working in order to save Pret a Manger

Steven Bush in the Observer today. I can only conclude he's been reading this thread.

She’s so dire.

“If we knew those documents came from Russia of course we wouldn’t use them” in future, says @lisanandy about leaked docs during election.

And more widely:

“I’ve said it before and I’ve said it again, we got in wrong on Russia”, for example, over Salisbury poisonings. #Marr

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) July 19, 2020

Unbearable.

fuck off Nandy the information was pertinent regardless of the source. and for all this distancing from Corbynism and signalling that Labour is under the sway of the Right now, Sir Kier is getting called a friend of terrorists in the Mail today, maybe a lesson to be learned there.

the new leader bounce/honeymoon period in the polling is finished, his strategy isn't working, he should be xx points.. ahe...

the government still hasn’t denied that the contents of those documents is accurate iirc

at this rate I'll be installing that Observer Stop Labour app by the next election and tactically voting for the Greens or LibDems, they're such a fucking loathsome party rn.

Lol like the Tories wouldn't use any damaging evidence on Labour that got passed to them by Russian oligarch donors during an election. Just taking a wrong position for the sake of dumping on Corbyn.

The fact the Tories felt the need to trot this out this week, half a year after the election and months after Corbyn returned to back benches, suggests that whatever is in the suppressed report is going to far worse.

The positive aspect I'm taking out of that is they are shitting themselves at whatever is contained in this Defence Select Committee Russia report. The negative aspect of that positive aspect is that Bojo is Trump and we're setting ourselves up for a whole series of Let's See Him Get Out Of This One... Oh Fuck He Has disappointments - there's been several of these already.

(xp) perfect timing there

At this point he could probably get away with infanticide and necrophilia. I just fucking give up!

yeah i don't know what you guys are hearing on the street but i don't think there's much he could do to fuck up at the moment

changing the Covid mortality count? no problem, it was definitely too high that's why we looked worse than the other countries

loads of people dying of rona? we're more densely populated than those other countries. not the far east countries, but they're all dictatorships/you can't trust them/who cares?

he's doing the best he can and it's impossible to imagine anybody making a better job of this or even what a better job would look like

What exactly do people think failing to "get away with it" would involve when they say things like this? Resigning in shame? Ousted by his own MPs? Labour 20 points ahead in the polls (lol).

Fact is he gets away with it until he doesn't. The government's rating for its handling of the pandemic is already one of the worst in the world, if not the worst and that's a direct result of the Cummings situation. That doesn't scream immortality to me even if the key players are still in place.

Probably the worst case scenario here for Boris is that the report outrages significant numbers of their more Queen and Country backbenchers and puts them in an even more rebellious and treacherous mood. That may cause him problems later down the line but surely no one thinks any of these incidents are enough to prove terminal to his Premiership in themselves given what Prime Ministers have survived in the past (Blair lol).

If I engage with another well-meaning but naive Matt post about how there will eventually be consequences for the Tories I might well have an aneurysm, so I won’t.

Instead, this seems bad.

Exc: Trouble on Starmer's leadership campaign WhatsApp group. Overlooked staffer accuses new LOTO of worst culture they have witnessed in Labour

Says she was "brutally" treated, "discarded", left on UC during pandemic

Prompts others to request calls with Starmer chief of staff pic.twitter.com/NiSZDxWxjp

— Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) July 19, 2020

i think it means if you're brazen enough, a la Trump, you can brush off all that stuff until it's election time, and once it's election time you ignore it by doubling down on the outrageous shit that your base believes. the question really is how addled the UK's "democratic" "systems" have become in the last 3 years and how bad they'll continue to be. at the moment i'd say it looks like "really quite addled".

not sure whether to feel sorry for saps who didn't think Starmzy's campaign would end up run by/enabling the worst macho reactionaries in the party tbh

Boris himself doesn’t matter. They’ll get rid of him in a second if they need to. The tories are the problem.

That'll almost certainly happen, depends if those tactics work as well for when you're the incumbent as they do for when you're the insurgent. I'm not so sure about that but the point is this is uncharted territory and we just don't know.

Obviously the whole media complex will swing into action to defend them when it comes to it but they may have replaced Johnson with a different Tory by then anyway.

None of this is any comfort to the families of the thousands of people dying obviously.

Xposts

i think Boris and his coterie matters to the extent that they've proved themselves a lot savvier at the mechanics of politics/winning elections in the 21st century than the Bufton Tufton wing, not sure the Tory party could pull another leader out of its arse with the same appeal to the right cross-section of idiots in the electorate

If I engage with another well-meaning but naive Matt post about how there will eventually be consequences for the Tories I might well have an aneurysm, so I won’t

Though I agree its difficult to see consequences any time soon the way things seem to work is cumulative, and when things turn they can turn quick (Trump becoming uncompetitive in the last 12 weeks or so, Conservatives in 90s/00s). But material changes are the trigger. That doesn't really affect current Tory voters (particularly on economy as they're generally retired), but it affects their appeal to the newer voters they'll need to replace them with over time

This doesn't necessarily mean its going to hit any time soon, but it will eventually become a problem for them, regardless of how much the opposition leader loves their country

not sure the Tory party could pull another leader out of its arse with the same appeal to the right cross-section of idiots in the electorate

They'll prob want to fight 2024 with someone else as leader but time is very much on their side with that

christ, that latest bairn of his looks like one ugly big-headed child of the damned, back in medieval times the nurse would have recommended drowning it.

i think it's quite possible they'll have ditched BoJo by then, but it'll be more to do with internal Tory turf wars than whether they've got a smart eye for electoral advantage

True, but one creates the condition for the other.