US Politics: July 2020 - "Denigrating this Luxury Avenue"

Hate to say it but the 2nd amendment is starting to look appealing.

shooting federal officers probably wouldn't improve the situation or get us any closer to racial justice

for people worried about ilhan omar see the final item here https://primaries.substack.com/p/issue-73. she's drowning in endorsements (including from pelosi) and she's up 66/29 in her internal polling.

I believe Omar to be good at and have hired people good at maths

Portland shit is legit fucked up and our House committees need to start addressing

our shit mayor here could lift a damn finger rather than just submit to the fucking feds just this man's opinion

"It’s true that our health care system was not designed to handle a pandemic, but it would be more accurate to say that our system was not designed to provide health care."https://t.co/AepGye5OD9

— Laura Marsh (@lmlauramarsh) July 17, 2020

BREAKING: Jamaal Bowman wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in New York’s 16th congressional district, defeating 16-term U.S. Rep. Eliot Engel. #APracecall at 11:09 a.m. EDT. #Election2020 #NYprimary https://t.co/n6R7Rw3aYT

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) July 17, 2020

Nice

:D

Pelosi next

https://ffrf.org/news/news-releases/item/37695-secret-white-house-calls-helped-funnel-tax-money-to-trump-preachers

Flag and god, flag and god

as good as the guy going against Pelosi seems, I don't think he's going to win.

looool

The difficulty of covid-era Trump messaging summed up perfectly in Pence's kicker:

"With four more years of Donald Trump in the White House, we'll make America great again... again."

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 17, 2020

Is that a threat?

We'll keep making America great again until you are all dead

No surprise but White House Blocks CDC CDC director from appearing before Congress. What could go wrong?

Are we talking about this anywhere? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

Read about half of it. Not buying most of it.

EXCLUSIVE: The Trump campaign is investigating campaign spending, Parscale contracts https://t.co/FenNuSzuwU

— Tom LoBianco (@tomlobianco) July 17, 2020

lol

when did businessinsider.com get paywalled?

Are we talking about this anywhere? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, July 17, 2020 2:56 PM (fifty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

a lot of this is in this tweet btw

Here's a quick pass of my positive and negative surprises from the last five years. I think on net I'm a little more optimistic about the future than I was in 2015 but not by very much. pic.twitter.com/Zp9gbv9x8V

— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) May 8, 2020

Grifting? In the Trump campaign? wig flipped

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said on Friday he would not close gyms in his state during the COVID-19 pandemic because people who go to gyms are “in good shape.” “If you’re in good shape, you have a very, very low likelihood of ending up in significant condition as a result of the coronavirus,” said DeSantis.

Oh Lord, Trump gets momentarily drawn out of the toady/yes-man bubble by Fox News of all places and lord it got weird. pic.twitter.com/1XiBCosMmH

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 17, 2020

xxp who grifts the grifters?

xp but according to Trump, exercise is bad for you and “drains” the body like a battery

David Shor got famous by getting fired. In late May, amid widespread protests over George Floyd’s murder, the 28-year-old data scientist tweeted out a study that found nonviolent demonstrations were more effective than “riots” at pushing public opinion and voter behavior leftward in 1968.

Cancelled, not-cancelled, whatever, it should be embarrassing for one of these political operative kid geniuses to tweet something like that that's so 'duh.'

fwiw he does have a more sophisticated take that is > 280 characters if you keep reading

Anyone talking shit on riots can kiss my left one, data or no data. I'm glad he got fired.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvG3is7Bm1w

don't agree with all of it but I did enjoy reading that tweet about positive/negative surprises since 2015

Anyone talking shit on riots can kiss my left one, data or no data. I'm glad he got fired

I mean, do you think the Princeton professor who wrote the paper should get fired?

Writing a paper that explains voting phenomena based on material events surrounding elections seems pretty fair. Citing that paper in an attempt to undercut and diminish the justified rage of people in a different time period, who are protesting many of the same issues as they were half a century ago, seems pretty fucked to me.

Writing a paper that explains voting phenomena based on material events surrounding elections seems pretty fair. Citing that paper in an attempt to undercut and diminish the justified rage of people in a different time period, who are protesting many of the same issues as they were half a century ago, seems pretty fucked to me.

I disagree with you table. Can i have your boss’ phone number please?

I think arguing about a 28-year-old’s opinions regarding the electoral landscape is a foredoomed clusterfuck. Especially since he likes to talk about how conservative control of the Senate and Electoral College is a done deal, but says “let’s not turn this into physics” when discussing progressive victories at the local level.

The interview also completely avoids foreign and defense policy, a category I’m sure he’d say nobody cares about, because his career coincides with the mid-to-late period of the forever war.

I’m really sad and angry that John Lewis is dead

Why else would he cite it?

And yes, also sad about Mr. Lewis passing. Pancreatic cancer is awful, just awful.

Breaking: ACLU files lawsuit against Department of Homeland Security agents and US Marshals deployed in Portland, seeking a temporary restraining order to block them from assaulting press and legal observers. ACLU says it's the first of many suits https://t.co/idUUY9ouYf pic.twitter.com/rrBDMSkMAP

— CJ Ciaramella (@cjciaramella) July 17, 2020

Mask Up!

https://theintercept.com/2020/07/16/face-masks-facial-recognition-dhs-blueleaks/

The David Shor interview is way more interesting than the fact that he was fired.

I thought that interview was really interesting. His pessimism about Dems' chances in future elections seems well-grounded, even if they manage to snag this one. As ever, the root is racism.

It's a good interview, don't get the complaint it doesn't touch on foreign pol. Shor wasn't asked about it, and I am sure he'd pull a reading off 2-5 studies on it if he was.

Why else would he cite it?

Because he seems like a guy whose absolutely dominant, overwhelming interest is elections and who wins them and basically everything that crosses his path he is going to look at through the lens of "how does this interact with the thing I know about, elections?"

I mean I get the criticism that if the same guy were a painting nerd there would be something off-putting about him posting pictures of police beating protestors and saying "it reminds one of Goya"

It's just really off-putting to me. Anyone who saw what was happening in the week or two following George Floyd's murder and then was like "bUt rIoTS w0n'T WiN tHe sUburbs" may have been right, but they also need to shut the fuck up, because their statement discounts not only valid rage but also makes the rather shaky assumption that national elections will change much for many of the working poor, most of whom are Black (per capita) in the US. It puts the onus on those who've been disenfranchised rather than on those who have the power to help the disenfranchised but won't.

OTM

This is a photo of Elijah Cummings, not John Lewis. pic.twitter.com/uumfIb7yW5

— Matt Viser (@mviser) July 18, 2020

jfc