US Politics: July 2020 - "Denigrating this Luxury Avenue"

That might be the most repugnant tweet I've ever read

boca is much less muggy, true

what is rice baiting?

Roger Stone Free

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I take some amount of solace in knowing roger stone will celebrate by going to a giant swingers’ party in florida, contract covid, and die within a month

— kilgore trout, suburban female understander (@KT_So_It_Goes) July 11, 2020

Inshallah

The Lincoln Project rules

pic.twitter.com/oLl63BSvcV

— Anthony 🔰 土着 (@Viscous_cree) July 11, 2020

there's some enemy-of-my-enemy stuff going on here that will dissolve the minute Trump's out of office but i can't imagine in what alternate reality any of that would be news to people who regularly read this thread

maybe someone i've killfiled is firing off dreamy poesies about that shitheel rick wilson i don't know

Well, he did bring some nice harmonies on "Don't Worry Baby."

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/polls-werent-far-2016-they-arent-wrong-now-either

I don't even know where this should go, but these guys are such complete assholes they should probably go here:

Bravo, ⁦@stltoday⁩ https://t.co/7tMOYykdxO

— erica orden (@eorden) July 11, 2020

and Susan Collins is troubled

Unprecedented, historic corruption: an American president commutes the sentence of a person convicted by a jury of lying to shield that very president.

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) July 11, 2020

The McCloskeys have filed many other lawsuits. They sued a man who sold them a Maserati they claimed was supposed to come with a box of hard-to-find parts. In one trip to the courthouse in November 1996, Mark McCloskey filed two lawsuits, one against a dog breeder whom he said sold him a German shepherd without papers and the other against the Central West End Association for using a photo of their house in a brochure for a house tour after the McCloskeys had told them not to.

“I guess we were saving gas,” he would quip in a deposition in another case about why he filed two lawsuits at once.

Mark McCloskey has run off trustees trying to make repairs to the wall surrounding his property, insisting that he and his wife own it. In 2013, he destroyed bee hives placed just outside of the mansion’s northern wall by the neighboring Jewish Central Reform Congregation and left a note saying he did it, and if the mess wasn’t cleaned up quickly he would seek a restraining order and attorneys fees. The congregation had planned to harvest the honey and pick apples from trees on its property for Rosh Hashanah.'

“The children were crying in school,” Rabbi Susan Talve said. “It was part of our curriculum.”

what's hilarious is that similar kinds of anecdotes both proceed and follow the excerpt above. these two are a cartoon supervillain assholes, and especially Mark. jfc

don't jinx it, don't jinx it

Remarkable. The non-partisan and quite small-c conservative Inside Elections senate ratings have now moved Lindsey Graham's race into the competitive category. 12 GOP seats in play. (Graham's opponent is Jaime Harrison.) https://t.co/QqwYj51qcq

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 11, 2020

oh please oh please oh please

I have been donating to Jaime's campaign monthly. Prayinnnn

holy shit

Senate Dem candidates reported raising a boatload of $$$. Why does that matter? In an tied race in June, a challenger who outraises the incumbent 2:1 gains 3 pts on average during the rest of the race. Now, multiple that by 5 tossup races. It's a huge deal https://t.co/3TT3Gavmmh

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 11, 2020

It's pretty clear to me that the Senate control is not a 50/50 proposition. It's pretty clear it tilts towards the Dems. (Not anywhere to the extent the prez race does.) But I'm gonna wait til all the fundraising is in before doing an update.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 11, 2020

That confuses correlation and causation but still, donate if you can to these senate races.

Dumb question, is it better to donate to a campaign now or closer to the actual election?

better to donate the maximum now when it's technically the primary so you can donate the maximum again for the general, oh wait are you a normal person and not a GOP megadonor?

Who am I kidding, the GOP megadonors don't obey the limits, they just give $100K to an "issue advocacy organization"

Anyway, the advantage of "now" is it helps build momentum and it's easier to plan when you know you have the money instead of just expecting it, the advantage of "closer" is that the races that look close now might not be the ones that look close in November (e.g. a lot of people on both sides really thought Tammy Baldwin was gonna be in a competitive re-election campaign)

So you're saying better to try and move the needle now than wait too long as discover the needle has already moved too far in any one direction?

I'm authentically not sure which is better, just trying to describe how I see the tradeoff!

Vote Save America's Get Mitch or Die Trying fund is splitting donations among "top Senate races where we believe your donation can make the biggest difference." It notes that the specific races are "subject to change as we get closer to the election. ... For example, we just paused on Arizona because that state race is extremely well-funded at the moment."

So if you donate to that fund, you don't have to worry about making the calculation yourself. But you do have to trust that they are making the right calculations.

Although maybe you just want to donate to one specific campaign. I like the idea of spreading the wealth because winning back the Senate seems more important than any individual race.

the commutation is just unbelievable. he’s pardoned the penguin.

RIP John Lewis

wait.. maybe not, the tweet was deleted

A spokesman says the rumors are untrue.

lol

Trumps campaign appears to believe he has won the election by putting on a mask, which raises the question of why they resisted this tactically brilliant political move until after 133k deaths pic.twitter.com/FHStWnVDLS

— Sam Stein (@samstein) July 11, 2020

Lack of polling also complicates donation efforts thus early in the cycle. I would donate to Rep. Omar in a heartbeat if I knew her primary was close but afaik there’s been no polling so far.

At least we don't have to look at his puckered anus of a mouth anymore.

looking at the clip (a walk-by with some staff and secret service), i realize that the mask prevents him from talking, which is another big factor behind him not wanting to wear it. his preferred talking situation is one in which he is talking and no one else can talk. this is why his very favorite interview area is underneath the deafening roar of helicopter blades, so he can scream at everyone and ignore anything he doesn't want to hear. the walk-by is usually a more moderate version of the helicopter, but he can still shout a few things to the press and then immediately walk out a door...if he's not wearing a mask

This is @RepGrothman *today* at the Wisconsin Republican convention (which was held in-person) pic.twitter.com/MnsVlJryLE

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 12, 2020

Politico reports:

On July Fourth, before President Donald Trump spoke to the nation from the White House lawn, he spoke indirectly to another community on Twitter: QAnon. That afternoon, he retweeted 14 tweets from accounts supporting the QAnon conspiracy theory, a sprawling and ever-mutating belief that a mysterious government official who goes by “Q” is leaving online clues about a messianic Trump’s secret plan to dismantle a cadre of Washington elites engaged in everything from pedophilia to child sex trafficking.

Those around Trump have followed suit. Eric Trump, the president’s son, recently posted a giant “Q” on Instagram as well as the hashtag version of the community’s slogan: “Where we go one, we go all.” White House deputy communications director Dan Scavino sparked glee on Facebook when he posted a photo with Q symbology. Over on Parler, the niche Twitter alternative and MAGA hub, Rep. Devin Nunes directed people to The Dirty Truth, a video producer who has promoted QAnon-related conspiracies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/trump-tweeting-qanon-followers-357238

Good morning!

It's amazing that journalists haven't figured out after all these years that the easiest way to get Trump to admit to something is to phrase the question in a flattering way. You want him to comment on Q? Ask him "Isn't it exciting the way the Q people seem to really understand what you're trying to do as president? What do you think of what they're doing?" You'll get a solid minute of him swearing on camera that he loves the Q people, they're great patriots and he's very happy to have their support.

Who cares?

8 polls in TX taken since June 1... Biden +0.3 pts... That includes 2 polls out this morning... One of which is Trump +1 and one that is Biden +5.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 12, 2020

Lol they’re going to have to spend money in Texas

who is the favorite to run against cornyn? MJ Heger? i kind of lost track of the TX democratic primary for senator, what with coronavirus and all

Yeah, Hegar is up +13 (vs. her primary opponents) in that same Texas poll. But Cornyn still has a significant lead in the general election.

Digging into the cross-tabs, the difference between the Senate race and the presidential race in Texas seems to be the independents. With Cornyn vs. Hegar, independents are split down the middle, which ultimately favors Cornyn. But they prefer Biden to Trump by nearly 2-to-1.

Fuckin Beto, man, had to waste everybody’s time running for President

After his bold remark about "of course we're coming for your guns" Beto sank his chances of ever becoming a senator from TX, at least until the earth shifts its axis.

What if he seized the seat by violent force?

More likely to see Hegar do that, as her ads push the point of her being a motorcycle riding combat veteran.