Is 'Other' not-so-secretly the province of UK ILXors?
Leaning towards the third option.
― pomenitul, Friday, 10 July 2020 13:18 (three years ago) link
I'm going with 2 even though it seems wildly optimistic right now
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Friday, 10 July 2020 13:28 (three years ago) link
a vaccine will take a long time to develop anda vaccine will take a long time to go through responsible trials and a vaccine will take a long time to produce and a vaccine will take a long time to distribute and there will be setbacks and missteps and there will be side effects and a lot of people won't take it anda lot of people can't take it and it won't work too well at first and the disease will probably mutate during the development of the vaccine andit will be initially available to the wealthy and powerful andit will be rationed and unavailable to the poor and disenfranchised there will be a black market and there will be fraud and price gougingthere will be denialism and suspicion
― rb (soda), Friday, 10 July 2020 13:49 (three years ago) link
Getting IA at ppl saying “option x” as tho after all these years they still don’t know that the options will be reordered once poll results are in and your posts will make no sense
― Rishi don’t lose my voucher (wins), Friday, 10 July 2020 13:53 (three years ago) link
optimistically voted "We will develop a vaccine, weakening it, but it still becomes endemic".
― Joey Corona (Euler), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:03 (three years ago) link
yeah. i also hate the 'lots of and research is aimed at this thing! hope is just around the corner!' thinking. no amount of money buys a vaccine faster than science and time can allow it. no amount of vaccine is going to be able to counter idiotic behavior. no vaccine is going to work well enough to do more than reduce the speed of its spread.
like... let's say a covid vaccine's initial efficacy is a super solid 80%, and it can administered to 50% of folks in a given area. that's give/take +40% effect in that area, which is well below the threshold for herd immunity. For comparison, the flu shot is 10-60% effective, and about 45% of the US population gets it annually, for an effect of +5% to +30%. (this is what my partner, who studies public health, explains to me). it's never going away.
― rb (soda), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:08 (three years ago) link
― Rishi don’t lose my voucher (wins), Friday, July 10, 2020 1:53 PM (fifteen minutes ago)
^^
1. We get to herd immunity due to death, RONA GONE2. We will successfully develop a vaccine, RONA EVENTUALLY GONE3. We will develop a vaccine, weakening it, but it still becomes endemic.4. We won't develop a vaccine, and it becomes endemic, with millions of deaths worldwide5. The problem is solved in some countries, others (like the US) are permanently ruined6. Life as we know it is forever changed - socializing a relic of the past.7. We are all going to die.8. We are all going to die except specific user such as imago9. Other
― handsome boy modelling software (bernard snowy), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:10 (three years ago) link
I voted for #5, btw
― handsome boy modelling software (bernard snowy), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:11 (three years ago) link
― rb (soda), Friday, July 10, 2020 9:08 AM (thirty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
this sounds a lot like "We will develop a vaccine, weakening it, but it still becomes endemic." i don't really see anyone saying "hope is around the corner."
― ACABincalifornia (voodoo chili), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:44 (three years ago) link
Tuberculosis, measles and polio have never gone away either but we don't worry about them either. My timeline is full of people going "don't you understand, we are NEVER going back to normal" and these people aren't really any more knowledgeable than the "coast is clear, all get down the pub" crew. It's all fronting, none of us know enough about this virus, but the guy giving it the full apocalyptic spiel gets to feel smarter.
Like nearly every disease except smallpox it will probably continue circulating indefinitely but as a species we will never be as susceptible to it as we were this year, and we will never know less about it than we did in the first few months of this year. Even comparing it to flu is misleading because flu mutates quickly and regularly, this specific virus appears to be mutating pretty slowly.
― Matt DC, Friday, 10 July 2020 14:49 (three years ago) link
this specific virus appears to be mutating pretty slowly
…which increases the likelihood of developing an effective vaccine, does it not?
― pomenitul, Friday, 10 July 2020 14:53 (three years ago) link
given that this is brutally wounding the economy it feels like we're gonna throw as much resources as it takes at it which is what gives me some hope
― frogbs, Friday, 10 July 2020 14:53 (three years ago) link
a lot of people seem to be pessimistic about the effectiveness and duration of covid antibodies, which is why i thought it would require more than one inoculation.
― ACABincalifornia (voodoo chili), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:53 (three years ago) link
A jab every year is not much of an inconvenience compared to, say, the complete suspension of economic and social life for months on end.
― Matt DC, Friday, 10 July 2020 14:57 (three years ago) link
There will eventually be a successful vaccine, a permanently ruined US sounds highly appealing, it's good that specific user imago will live long and prosper, but regardless we're all going to die.
― Scampidocio (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 10 July 2020 14:59 (three years ago) link
― Matt DC, Friday, July 10, 2020 9:57 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
or is that what bill gates wants you to think?
― ACABincalifornia (voodoo chili), Friday, 10 July 2020 15:00 (three years ago) link
― Matt DC, Friday, July 10, 2020 10:49 AM (sixteen minutes ago)
Yeah, but ... Matt, we don't worry about tuberculosis, measles and polio because of decades of robust vaccines and research, pro-vaccine public health campaigns, and the relative wealth in the West increasing the quality of therapies lowering the likelihood of infection – at least in US/Europe. But that's really head-in-the-sand thinking. All of these diseases are resurgent in poorer parts of the world, and they're likely to increase their toehold. Environmental changes and spillover due to habitat loss are only going to facilitate zoonotic transfer. Even if we get C19 under control, there's a lot more around the corner.
I'm not 'fronting' and nobody's giving 'a full apocolyptic spiel' in saying that the virus is here to stay, and others like it are coming afterward. Maybe that's happening on your timeline, but it's certainly not happening here. Wealthy westerners lived, until now, in a nice little glimmering castle where we didn't think about epidemiology until C19 lobbed an existential threat over the parapets like a diseased cow. Integrating this information is part new order of things, and holding out for a vaccine-as-salvation is going to lead to a lot of disappointment. To my mind, if people under/overreact, as long as they're not endangering other, it's no big deal. We're all traumatized by this, and processing it in our own ways.
― rb (soda), Friday, 10 July 2020 15:26 (three years ago) link
* increasing the quality of therapies AND lowering and the likelihood of infection
― rb (soda), Friday, 10 July 2020 15:27 (three years ago) link
Measles especially is coming back because of anti-Vanz dipshits pedalling dangerous anti science bullshit so that herd immunity is compromised. These lunatics are putting children at risk of painful disease, long term health issue and death.
Any vaccination campaign against the rona is already compromised by these evil arseholes.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Friday, 10 July 2020 21:24 (three years ago) link
Even if we had a highly effective vaccine The fact that a significant chunk of people wouldn’t get vaccinated would severely compromise its effectiveness
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Friday, 10 July 2020 21:29 (three years ago) link
a significant chunk of people wouldn’t get vaccinated would severely compromise its effectiveness
If the vaccine is effective, at least it would be effective for anyone who is vaccinated. Of course, it would continue to circulate among the unvaccinated for the foreseeable future, and not all of the unvaccinated people would be anti-vaxxers.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Sunday, 12 July 2020 00:44 (three years ago) link
I think there will definitely eventually be a vaccine, the question is will it be a yearly endemic thing or a once in a lifetime thing
― Dan S, Sunday, 12 July 2020 00:52 (three years ago) link
If the vaccine is effective, at least it would be effective for anyone who is vaccinated.
c'mon, a vaccine is not an on-off switch for folks who receives it. many people, even if vaccinated, will not receive immunity from a vaccine. and if they do receive immunity, it might not be all that durable. plus, many people cannot receive a vaccine at all. the purpose of a vaccine is to protect a population, not an individual.
― rb (soda), Sunday, 12 July 2020 01:15 (three years ago) link
Agreed the reason the measles, polio and othe vaccines are effective is not because the vaccine confers total immunity on people but because most people are a lot more immune than they were and so there’s a lot less disease out there.
Plus there will be people who can’t be vaccinated due to allergies, immune system issues, side effects etc. Who are protected because the bulk of us are vaccinated. This is one of many reasons why anti-vaxxers are evil, Selfish mothefuckers.
Or if you wanted it on a selfish and personal level, just because you get vaccinated it doesn’t mean that some selfish arsehole who won’t take basic precautions won’t give you a dose of the rona.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Sunday, 12 July 2020 01:34 (three years ago) link
the purpose of a vaccine is to protect a population, not an individual.
these are not separable. a population is protected by protecting many individuals. the individual protections given by a vaccine, when aggregated, extends to those without immunity, but imperfectly compared to those with immunity.
if they do receive immunity, it might not be all that durable. plus, many people cannot receive a vaccine at all.
immunity which is not durable is still immunity for a time, which I would consider a desirable effect. uh, those people who cannot be vaccinated don't fall under the category of "people who are vaccinated". I don't see where I tried to say anything different than you.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Sunday, 12 July 2020 01:57 (three years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Monday, 20 July 2020 00:01 (three years ago) link
hmm, i guess a possibility i didn't consider is that the administration would rush order a vaccine and promote it without FDA approval
https://www.mediaite.com/news/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-says-covid-vaccine-will-be-ready-for-emergency-use-by-end-of-2020/
― mozzy star (voodoo chili), Monday, 20 July 2020 16:49 (three years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Tuesday, 21 July 2020 00:01 (three years ago) link
Who knew that a country founded on genocide, slavery, and unbridled human greed would end so horribly? Those purple mountains were nice, though.— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) July 24, 2020
― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 25 July 2020 14:00 (three years ago) link