Irish politics discussion thread

The Irish love their pizza so much and they are so fucking shit at it

interesting red c poll today

new opinion poll suggests a slump in support for Sinn Féin with the party down four points since the previous survey two months ago.

The Business Post Red C poll puts the party at 25%, down from 29% in the most recent poll at the end of November.

Support for Fine Gael was unchanged at 20% while Fianna Fáil has gained one point to 17%.

Independents are on 15%, up two points, while the Social Democrats are unchanged at 6%.

Support for Labour remains at 4% while the Green Party is also unchanged at 4%.

People Before Profit/Solidarity is unchanged at 3% while Aontú is up one point to 3%.

Others are unchanged at 3%.

makes you think about what FG/FF could do if they even tried to solve housing

Feels like SF are losing votes cos of Gaza a bit?

from the left?

maybe

also immigration from the farther right tho

they are finding it difficult to be enough things to enough men the longer they spend as first opposition, but thats expected generally id say

the breadth of anti-govt opinion that they rode last election couldnt be held together for long and they managed better than i thought they would

but i think theres a big tension between their new young support, their new middle aged support, their traditional report and staying quiet on actual positions is eventually starting to show the joins

its still a surprise too see this drop and i doubt it will be carried to the next poll tbh, back up towards 28% maybe and fg to see the same drop.feels more like it

the measure will be seats on the day

maybe the new racists farmers party will change the game

Yeah, true. They were pretty bad on reproductive rights on the other side of the border

im not sure if "look at what their positions are in NI" carries an awful lot of weight, for two reasons (this is all just "i think")

i. having to govern with these loons, tbf

ii. not sure how many potential sf voters down south *really* think of sf ni and sf roi as an entity like that

i think at present they are weighing up the arithmetic between showing how pragmatic theyd actually be in govt across the range of issue that have gained them poll points vs their own internal priorities as an all island party, because theyve reached the limit of growth as far as saying "we'll definitely do what you want that the current govt isnt" to a very wide range of opinion goes

id still be surprised if ff/fg/greens carry the next election tbh but the fracturing of further left and right offers a somewhat changed set of rules there?

The noise about them earlier this week was them taking some lumps from PDP because SF are planning on going to the states for St Patrick's day (and.. meet the President? did they do a lot of this pre-Biden?) for what will presumably be a big fund-raising trip for them?

i dont see it being a 4% issue but combine it with SF confirming quite strongly of late they are an open borders party like fg/ff on immigrants (this ofc is how its being viewed and described by the right wingers) might be.

dropping from both sides basically

ah and mary lou said theyd bring house prices in dublin down to 300k

now i suspect there wasnt all *that* many ppl *that* invested in the asset calue of their gaff who had been telling red c they would vote for sf until then

but im also sure that its a non-zero number, and more than likely the greater part of any migration here is not in the "i disagree with that" space its in the "youve said something major that you you absolutely wont be backing up with any sort of actual plan or policy here"

do other parties do this? yeah. does it hurt them as much? for as long as SF are actual prospective leaders of a govt who havent been in govt they are going to be vulnerable to this i think.

does this type of grandstanding gain them proportionally more votes from ppl who like the headline message? again i think we are now seeing them hover along the limit lines of exactly that question on the topics that matter.

A friend in the civil service has said there's been all sorts of misinformation on the Family amendment in the agricultural media, preying off the fact that succession and inheritance are obsessions for a lot of farmers.

The FLAC are supporting Yes/No, I know some people voting Yes/Yes on the grounds of fuck Conor McGregor, No/No seem like head cases by and large - is there anyone brave enough to come out for No/Yes?

the majority of ppl i know are not voting

the govt efforts around it have been woeful and the decisions to string a few things together and leave the actual outcomes unclear until interpreted by the courts have been badly taken by and large

Yeah, I heard it was not the best - if I was there I'd probably vote Yes/Something just on the grounds that a No on the Family will be seen by the worst people as a sign that the tide is starting to turn.