outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

" ... many [people reported to be asymptomatic carriers] turn out to have mild disease, or unusual symptoms ... "

the distinction between "truly asymptomatic" and "symptomatic, but not obviously so" is irrelevant to most transmission scenarios

Agreeing with Trump on anything makes me want to vomit, but the WHO's responses have been questionable during a lot of this.

I don't think that's quite agreeing with him, but it is true.

The WHO and similar orgs are never going to get the fact that medical literalism does not translate into clear and helpful guidance for the general public.

New case and hospitalization numbers have been slightly elevated in Austin, TX over the last couple weeks as things start re-opening, but today's new case number is a significant spike, the highest single day total so far, and 30% more than the previous high from last week. I don't know if this is a true spike or is related to possible increased testing, but it is very worrisome. Average hospitalizations appear to be holding steady for the moment.

One thing that I'm seeing that is a bit reassuring is that since the end of last week, the city has opened testing to people without symptoms and has been recommending that protesters get tested. Their online assessment tool has recommended testing for 4000 people, which is way more than the number that was getting recommended prior to June.

the testing is still only really for active infections right, not antibodies?

There are at least clinics in Austin like ARC that offer antibody testing.

*throws up hands*

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-clarifies-comment-that-asymptomatic-transmission-is-very-rare-2020-6

The level of subtextual parsing their various communications require to make sense is really something.

BREAKING: For the 3rd day in a row Texas set a new record for hospitalizations. Texas has now seen hospitalizations increase 42 percent since Memorial Day.

— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) June 10, 2020

Austin hit another new case record today with 161. Prior to this week the daily high had been 88.

so Oregon is the first state to call a halt to "reopening," cuz reality? How many to come, all summer?

I saw that AZ governor saying that the rising number of infections was simply because of increased testing. I guess the rising hospitalizations are just a coincidence.

This shit is simultaneously the least surprising and most depressing shit ever.

it really looks like America has just given up on this

One "promising" thing to note: as much as we have new (or recurring) spikes in hotspots, the number of fatalities continues to steadily decrease. What happened in the NYC metro area was on a vastly different scale than the rest of the country.

one possibility that hadn't occurred to me before, for some reason: this is all mexico's fault

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House is floating a theory that travel from Mexico may be contributing to a new wave of coronavirus infections, rather than states’ efforts to reopen their economies.

The notion was discussed at some length during a meeting of the administration’s coronavirus task force in the White House Situation Room Thursday that focused, in part, on identifying commonalities between new outbreaks, according to two administration officials familiar with the discussions.

They should consider building a giant wall or, barring that, a border-length HEPA filter.

what could be the commonality between new outbreaks? we need a task force to identify them! probably mexico, though. now if you'll excuse me, i have to get back to the re-open the country task force while also finalizing the waiver form for trump rallies so that they can't sue us when they get sick, i mean if they get sick from mexico which is their fault

Mexico will pay for their treatment

everyone knows they're going to blame the spikes on the protesters anyway

(and like all effective lies, it'll have a grain of truth to it. i have no idea what % of new cases will be attributable to the protests. more than 0%. much less than 100%, that's for sure, and less than the effect of pushing to re-open everywhere possible as soon as possible in red states (and also some blue). but in the end it'll be 100% the protesters fault, regardless)

But not the fault of the people protesting the shut-downs.

Of course not, because they were protected by their guns

America has just given up on this

where Trump goeth, most follow, even his 'rivals'

gotta stay current!

One "promising" thing to note: as much as we have new (or recurring) spikes in hotspots, the number of fatalities continues to steadily decrease. What happened in the NYC metro area was on a vastly different scale than the rest of the country.

wasn't there a French study a couple weeks ago suggesting that the virus was mutating into something less deadly?

https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news/heartburn-drug-may-have-potential-against-covid-19

This is encouraging. They only studied people who were receiving famotidine during their hospital stays for the normal reason - heartburn/acid reflux. I wonder if a higher dosage might have a more pronounced effect.

Also, heartburn pills are weird!

Like, Tagamet is also used to get rid of warts!

i personally use famotidine regularly with high-dose ibuprofen.

The Dutch Lung Foundation (Longfonds) did a survey on recovered patients. As reported in dutchnews.nl:

Some 95% of the 1,600 respondents, of whom 91% were not admitted to hospital and 43% were never officially diagnosed, said they have trouble with normal day to day activities three months after being infected. Persisting symptoms include tiredness, shortness of breath, headaches, muscle pain and heart palpitations. The average age of the respondents is 53. Most of the respondents, some 85%, said they had no health problems before the infection. That number dropped to 6%, with almost half of the respondents unable to resume physical activities like sport.

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons

wasn't there a French study a couple weeks ago suggesting that the virus was mutating into something less deadly?

Are you thinking of Berlusconi’s doctor who said that COVID in Italy wasn’t dangerous anymore?

Beijing back under partial lockdown after 100 cases at the weekend.

Yeah, I think more than half of their districts are reporting new cases after 50 days of reporting zero cases. This is a true second wave, worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Ewwwwwww

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/covid-19-can-damage-lungs-victims-beyond-recognition-expert-says

This Beijing outbreak is reputedly more contagious and absolutely terrifying.

what are the chances of the uk shutting down again, given that people have only just got a first taste of Sports Direct freedom?

It's unlikely to transmit globally as quickly this time round for obvious reasons but yes the UK is almost certainly going to have to lock down again - probably in the winter after things have appeared to get much better. Regional lockdowns might be more likely unless things get really out of control.

what about the prospect of a second spike that begins in a few weeks and we are right back to 900+ deaths a day followed by a winter spike, by which point multiple NHS trusts have been overwhelmed and we are looking like a collapsed state. yeah not very cheery, but it is what I was thinking this morning whilst walking the dog and was noticing how traffic almost seems to be almost back to pre-lockdown levels.

I was to be honest expecting one by now - it's already 5 weeks since the Warrington Conga and the first May bank holiday.

I think I saw that China is saying the strain is European. Granted, you can't trust anyone at this point to be completely transparent, but if that's true it really does underscore the important (or futility?) of controlling people coming in and out of the country. I don't know about UK day-to-day, but I'm pretty sure a 14-day quarantine for new arrivals is still in effect.

It has only just been placed in effect, about three months after it should have. There is no enforcement mechanism other than the risk that someone might phone up your house and ask to speak to you.

Can see people saying "China was authoritarian af about it and they're seeing another spike, why bother with lockdowns at all"

The fact that the number of new cases hasn't increased in London in two weeks, despite everything that's been happening here, is actually pretty heartening. Then again we got it earlier than the rest of the country, and the city was going about its business normally for two weeks before lockdown with the virus raging, so maybe a critical mass of people have already been exposed idk. Or the risk from outdoor transmission, even in mass gatherings, is relatively low.

Either that or there's a massive spike just around the corner.

It won't be critical mass - I think the estimate for nationwide infection rate is something like 3-5%. Possibly higher in London but not by much. I think it's more the outdoor thing - that the real risk is being next to someone, for an hour or more, indoors, who has it and who is talking to you. Restaurants, pubs, cinemas etc are all still closed and everyone who can work from home still is.

Looks like I'll be going back to work soon. Not bothered because I am bored out of my skull.

London's meant to be something like 17% exposed, i think?

I think it's estimated that 21% of NYC has antibodies. But a fraction of that upstate (for example). I think the vast, vast majority of people have not had it, and may never get it.

17% sounds about right? A lot of Londoners spent a lot of time in close quarters before everything shut down, including on public transport.

BREAKING: Beijing is to shut all schools on Wednesday following a new #coronavirus/#COVID19 outbreak. City officials are also reportedly advising people not to leave the area unless necessary.

— Nick Stylianou (@nmsonline) June 16, 2020