love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

There is a certain demographic that didn't complain about that and is complaining now.

"Racists", I think we call 'em.

It's very easy to over-rely on non-voters though and as a grouping they're incredibly varied. They aren't necessarily a particularly substantial pool of Labour voters and there's no guarantee they're going to turn out regardless of policy platform. The wider mood music makes a difference as well.

I've had a look at the target seats and it would have taken around 87,000 votes in the right areas to deprive Johnson of his majority. That's a pretty tiny amount all things considered.

It’s interesting to compare the Tory route. The current admin is far more right-wing radical than Corbyn was left-wing. But they got control of the country by first taking power, then taking the party.

This is completely arse over tit btw. The Tory radical right took the party first, literally throwing out of the party those who didn't agree with them, and then won an election.

I think he's talking about Cameron?

There is a certain demographic that didn't complain about that and is complaining now.

"Racists", I think we call 'em.

I think he's talking about Cameron?

I think he's talking bollocks in that case.

it's the most politically fractured time in british politics certainly in living memory and mb ever. behaviour has been v irrational from an electoral pov for a long time, anger and apathy have been building on the left at least since thatcher and you can't wish or indeed really argue that away. what issues you can use to unite enough different groups to beat the tories is a big q, but you can't appeal to everyone left of ken clark and as many have said, it's not necessarily true that there always is a possible platform you could run on that would find enough support. different groups are constantly being taken for granted, and it's p tough work persuading those left outside of a given coalition to vote for you, and lesser evil logic simply doesn't hold for most ppl.

matt idk what you mean by over-relying on non-voters!

This is completely arse over tit btw. The Tory radical right took the party first, literally throwing out of the party those who didn't agree with them, and then won an election.

Ogmor - I mean you don't want to actively depress turnout among your core voters (assuming there can be an agreement on what the core vote actually is) - that probably did for May in 2017. But equally you don't want to assume that there's a pool of latent voters who are just waiting to be attracted by whatever policy platform you're advocating. Voter and non-voter groups in general are much more complex and contradictory (and sometimes irrational) than these kinds of broad brush arguments allow for.

This is too narrow a view. The radical right already had the country – Brexit began under Cameron, driven by UKIP. Because they had the country they were strong enough to take the party and kick out everyone who disagreed. Then they proved they were right by getting a whapping majority.

The other way around wouldn't have worked. If they'd first moulded the party into the no-deal-ahoy! swivel-eyed loons they are now would they have won a majority in 2015? Fuck it, probably the answer is yes with this country, but I still doubt it.

Sorry but that still makes no sense to me, Brexit happened because of a catastrophic miscalculation by Cameron and the parliamentary Tory Party, the majority of whom were opposed to it. The Tory radical right were never in control of the country at any point because they were never in control of the party until the disintegration of May's government.

xp sure but the complexity and contradiction of non-voters as a group doesn't mean they balance out evenly between left and right. busting it out again but in the last four elections only half of people voted for the same party four times. lots of ppl didn't vote labour until corbs and a lot of them won't vote labour again for a while ! most of the big conditions for labour victories - economic crashes, strong lib dems to poach more centrist/lib tory voters - are out of the control of the left entirely, it seems reasonable to me to address the absolutely atrocious turnout in a lot of areas where labour perform relatively well (it makes electoral sense atm too ofc but even when it doesn't)

Yeah, I fucked that on my phone, I meant to say "power". They had (political) power because Cameron's lot were scared enough of UKIP to give them the referendum, which exposed just how much power the right really had. They then leveraged that into total control of the party, which gave them total control of the country.

Put it another way, would the racist right have the level of control they do now if they had just went "voting sucks" at some not-racist-enough coalition tweet and left it at that? xp

They had another party to vote for, and they did in their droves.

Most former Red Wall seats are how held on thin majorities so as Ogmor says the picture is a lot more nuanced than that.

The former red wall seats that flipped have greater boomer percentage than the ones that didn't. A large factor in whether they went blue or not is how much the seat aged. I don't know what those seats start to look like once boomers start filtering out of the electorate

That may take a long time.

Also it bears repeating that the pandemic is a once in a lifetime seismic event that can and probably will alter the picture in ways we can't fully understand or anticipate yet. That four years is going to feel like entire decades in political terms.

The UK political system is as much use as a vuvuzela for making any kind of nuanced point - unfortunately the left's traditional means of applying other pressures (get out of work, get into the streets) aren't massively functional right at the moment.

all three main (suppress your laughter!) parties

I know enough to know better, but you mean the Lib Dems here, don't you?

Not quite to the same extent.

See from what I can see, it's a much greater extent. Front page after front page about idiots in parks, but it's at most an 'angle' on the protests.

I did indeed mean the Lib Dems! Sorry SNP stans

Some good news.

BREAKING – Belly Mujinga: CPS to review evidence of coronavirus death https://t.co/WWFNpPxM1I

— Nadine White (@Nadine_Writes) June 5, 2020

That may take a long time.

It might! But coupled with thin majorities in many cases, it also might not

i guess fundamentally what it comes down to is that in order for a leftwing party to win you need the votes of a lot of ppl who do not identify with power or indeed electoralism v much and who do indeed think voting sucks. the right doesn't need these ppl as much, but they've been excellent at stirring up and harnessing contempt for politics in general, that was the genius of 'get brexit done'. starmzy has taken the complete opposite approach trying to bring grown-up care and forensic respect for infinite inquiries back in fashion

See from what I can see, it's a much greater extent. Front page after front page about idiots in parks, but it's at most an 'angle' on the protests.

All depends on who you're listening to I think, willing to bet there's close to no overlap between people complaining about the VE conga line and people complaining about the protests. People in the park less obviously political, except whining about it reinforces the tory you-brought-it-on-yourselves agenda so it's seen as fair play.

They had another party to vote for, and they did in their droves.

i guess fundamentally what it comes down to is that in order for a leftwing party to win you need the votes of a lot of ppl who do not identify with power or indeed electoralism v much and who do indeed think voting sucks.

Question is whether there are enough of these people out there, whether enough of them will vote for a left-wing party in any circumstances, and whether attracting these people risks repelling the other groups of people whose votes you also need.

Starmer's approach so far appears to be based around dampening down the rhetoric around anything that might be used against them when culture war tactics come back into play. It might work to some extent but it might also look like rabbit in headlights fence sitting, which is probably the most damaging thing of all, electorally.

ding fucking ding

Not really, it proves that if you stop voting for the party you're supposed to be voting for it forces that party to follow you not lurch in completely the opposite direction.

The sticking point is there's no left equivalent of UKIP in England.

that's the whole point, aye. if you vote for something else you give it power and it can affect change, and that worked for UKIP. But there's no left equivalent, so that ends up being "not voting" rather than voting for something else, and that plays out pretty differently.

whether attracting these people risks repelling the other groups of people whose votes you also need.

this comes back to my point about coalitions. it's not clear that there's enough of anyone out there. starmer has decided to risk repelling a lot of ppl who were too leftwing for labour throughout the 00s in courting the centre; he is unelectable for them.

The lack of a UKIP/Brexit Party next time round could have a surprisingly big effect as well - assuming none emerges in that time. Course they could all just end up voting Tory anyway.

feels obvious that the next populist challenge will be a leftist one

meanwhile the Tories have decided £100m is too expensive to stop children starving over summer.

We've had 50k deaths and a disaster of a response with an economic crisis and Brexit to be delivered in some form to come and the question for me is if Labour -- despite it all -- don't find themselves a few points ahead (at least) the question "what is to be done?" about this leadership needs to be asked.

The protests this week have shown there is a lot of energy out there to fight for something better than this fucking haircut.

meanwhile the Tories have decided £100m is too expensive to stop children starving over summer.

let them eat royal yacht

My fear is that once people out themselves as Tories the Rubicon has been passed and they often don't go back, I think this is partly what has happened with many working class unionist, let's call a spade a spade, Protestant voters in Scotland.

the number are starting to move haircut-wards, but there's a lot of undecided there:

NEW from @IpsosMORI: Starmer opens up a clear lead over Johnson in terms of 'net favourability' and Labour draw level with Cons. But that is just part of the story - read on for more.... pic.twitter.com/JW1AtnGsJu

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) June 5, 2020

Our polling also showed 26% unfavourable towards Starmer. Who are these people?

Again, below is who overshoots average by +5 pts

Con 2019 voters 41%
Leave voters 39%
Aged +55 33%
Social grade C2s 33%
Midlands 31%
Not working (incs retired) 31%
Home owned outright 31%

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) June 5, 2020

my first ever vote in a GE was in 2015 and I felt quite sick for voting for a party going toe to toe with the tories on austerity on racism, and told myself never again and I fucking meant it! I'm not having no yard dog melt telling me I'm part of the problem for withdrawing my support for another shit-hole tory version of the PLP making the same noises again and attacking the idea of universalism in the benefits system. It's a personal choice and I don't possess the colossal arrogance it takes to tell people who will continue voting Labour that they are part of the problem. this is my last word on this, I promise!

hope it works out well for you!

that comes over more cunty than I meant it to sound, sorry, I was reacting to yard-dog melt.

well quit yipping then!

Johnson probably won't make it to the next election..

I'd put money on it.

Your optimism disgusts me.

I didn't vote Labour in 2015 specifically because of the red lines they crossed on austerity and immigration, I was very much "I can't endorse this bollocks", but then again I lived in one of the safest Labour seats in the country. I can't say that would have been the case if I'd lived in a marginal.

this comes back to my point about coalitions. it's not clear that there's enough of anyone out there. starmer has decided to risk repelling a lot of ppl who were too leftwing for labour throughout the 00s in courting the centre; he is unelectable for them.

Depends on where they physically are - some voters are easier to risk than others. If the vast majority of these people are in places like Bristol or Hackney or Liverpool then they can probably afford to risk losing a few of them, providing they don't start taking these seats for granted when they get into power. This last bit is where New Labour fucked up, but they got away with it because the real consequences didn't become apparent until years later.

My fear is that once people out themselves as Tories the Rubicon has been passed and they often don't go back, I think this is partly what has happened with many working class unionist, let's call a spade a spade, Protestant voters in Scotland.

Agree that those voters are gone, they're not coming back. But there are other voters in those seats. Becoming explicitly the party of pensioners comes with a cost, eventually.

Boris will have been deposed before the next election, irrespective of his obvious long standing ill health

Also this government is proving especially efficient when it comes to reducing the number of pensioners.

well quit yipping then!

Agree that those voters are gone, they're not coming back. But there are other voters in those seats. Becoming explicitly the party of pensioners comes with a cost, eventually.

Plus people who don't vote!

xxxxp right, the short term concerns of electoral maths are not the same as the long term concerns of anyone trying to build a strong left movement (not to say that the right of the party really does want to build a movement ofc). these groups are ofc concentrated and while overall demographic shift will slowly favour them and make them spread out, I also think ppl will continue to migrate & cluster more and you'll get more regional and local disparities. new labour were able to take advantage of a legacy of a core of partisan left voters that doesn't exist any more. to my ears a lot of the centre left moaning about ppl not voting sounds like wishing there were more ppl who cld be taken for granted. the landscape is more volatile in general, but the more starmer makes it clear the left of the party has no hold over him, the less reason they have to vote for him, there's no room for appeals to common sense in there

I won't be voting Labour, whether I live in a safe seat or otherwise in four years, unless the manifesto aims to meet the material needs of the many.

This shouldn't be a controversial point.

What’s controversial, apparently, is what you choose to do instead