outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

^ whole state-by-state rundown thread, fyi

Meanwhile, I think I saw (and while the exact numbers may be off the gist remains the same) that after a bunch of contact tracing in Hong Kong, they determined that a small handful of super-spreader events accounted for a huge number of cases, but of those who contracted Covid, 70% did not pass it along. For some reason certain people just spread the fuck out of this.

We don't know if it's the individual or the situation they're in, though. Or some combination.

Like, 25 people all with the same viral load will probably spread a lot differently depending on whether they're sitting home or eating in a crowded restaurant.

I mean just the variation in respiratory physiology and your manner of speaking could explain it. You could be a confident braying firehose of coronavirus vs some other person with gnarled and turbid sinuses that speaks to the floor in whispers.

Elevated levels in TX are definitely worrying me, hoping it's a bump since so many people seem to be doing a good job of sticking to masks and distancing.

a confident braying firehose of coronavirus

lol I needed this, thank you

*You could be a confident braying firehose of coronavirus vs some other person with gnarled and turbid sinuses that speaks to the floor in whispers.*

Being a shoegazer rather than a death metaller finally pays off

I saw Braying Firehose open for the Turbid Sinuses back in '93.

thanking u

I believe it depends on what you're doing and where you are - if you're at a choir or singing in a church or an exercise class or in a loud bar where you have to shout you're much more likely to be blowing it out there. It's not that some individuals are just biologically less likely to spread it.

some details on "superspreader" events here, it does seem possible that it is activity-related:

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/05/22/superspreaders

Being a shoegazer rather than a death metaller finally pays off

scene immunity not herd immunity

A++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z45yWIXipy8

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/brazil-stops-releasing-covid-19-death-toll-and-wipes-data-from-official-site

Fuck Bolsonaro

I hope you weren’t single when the music stopped

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html

The situation in Singapore is horrific. They were proudly boasting about no new infections for days on end when it was spreading, untested, in migrant worker dorms. Now they're paying attention, they have 400-600 cases each day, 99.8% of which are in dormitories.

does that mean it's at least semi-contained, or at least they're able to do contact tracing?

also it feels really weird to look at "400-600 cases each day" and think "wow, i can't wait to chicago gets to that point" :(

It is contained in as much as migrant workers aren’t infecting anyone else, not contained when it comes to them infecting each other. The conditions people live in (cramped multiple occupancy spaces, shared bathrooms, etc) mean social distancing is impossible.

so we're back to this now?

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/u-s-world/who-asymptomatic-spread-of-coronavirus-is-rare/

WHO has always been sceptical about the asymptomatic transmission fear I think.

yeah, on re-reading, they have been. i agree with continuing to minimize risk since others have been less confident in that (and Sweden seems to be outright saying they fucked up with their approach), but...wish there was something resembling consensus, though I know that's nigh impossible when we know so little about the disease.

which speaking of, the WHO initially praised Sweden, whose approach is now blowing up in its face:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-testing-lags-patients-say-they-cant-be-treated-2020-6

WHO (& CDC!) was anti-masks for way too long. Perhaps they were trying to curb civilian demand while ramping up PPE for medical usage but I'll never forget that massive misstep.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf

" ... many [people reported to be asymptomatic carriers] turn out to have mild disease, or unusual symptoms ... "

the distinction between "truly asymptomatic" and "symptomatic, but not obviously so" is irrelevant to most transmission scenarios

Agreeing with Trump on anything makes me want to vomit, but the WHO's responses have been questionable during a lot of this.

I don't think that's quite agreeing with him, but it is true.

The WHO and similar orgs are never going to get the fact that medical literalism does not translate into clear and helpful guidance for the general public.

New case and hospitalization numbers have been slightly elevated in Austin, TX over the last couple weeks as things start re-opening, but today's new case number is a significant spike, the highest single day total so far, and 30% more than the previous high from last week. I don't know if this is a true spike or is related to possible increased testing, but it is very worrisome. Average hospitalizations appear to be holding steady for the moment.

One thing that I'm seeing that is a bit reassuring is that since the end of last week, the city has opened testing to people without symptoms and has been recommending that protesters get tested. Their online assessment tool has recommended testing for 4000 people, which is way more than the number that was getting recommended prior to June.

the testing is still only really for active infections right, not antibodies?

There are at least clinics in Austin like ARC that offer antibody testing.

*throws up hands*

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-clarifies-comment-that-asymptomatic-transmission-is-very-rare-2020-6

The level of subtextual parsing their various communications require to make sense is really something.

BREAKING: For the 3rd day in a row Texas set a new record for hospitalizations. Texas has now seen hospitalizations increase 42 percent since Memorial Day.

— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) June 10, 2020

Austin hit another new case record today with 161. Prior to this week the daily high had been 88.

so Oregon is the first state to call a halt to "reopening," cuz reality? How many to come, all summer?

I saw that AZ governor saying that the rising number of infections was simply because of increased testing. I guess the rising hospitalizations are just a coincidence.

This shit is simultaneously the least surprising and most depressing shit ever.

it really looks like America has just given up on this

One "promising" thing to note: as much as we have new (or recurring) spikes in hotspots, the number of fatalities continues to steadily decrease. What happened in the NYC metro area was on a vastly different scale than the rest of the country.

one possibility that hadn't occurred to me before, for some reason: this is all mexico's fault

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House is floating a theory that travel from Mexico may be contributing to a new wave of coronavirus infections, rather than states’ efforts to reopen their economies.

The notion was discussed at some length during a meeting of the administration’s coronavirus task force in the White House Situation Room Thursday that focused, in part, on identifying commonalities between new outbreaks, according to two administration officials familiar with the discussions.

They should consider building a giant wall or, barring that, a border-length HEPA filter.

what could be the commonality between new outbreaks? we need a task force to identify them! probably mexico, though. now if you'll excuse me, i have to get back to the re-open the country task force while also finalizing the waiver form for trump rallies so that they can't sue us when they get sick, i mean if they get sick from mexico which is their fault

Mexico will pay for their treatment

everyone knows they're going to blame the spikes on the protesters anyway

(and like all effective lies, it'll have a grain of truth to it. i have no idea what % of new cases will be attributable to the protests. more than 0%. much less than 100%, that's for sure, and less than the effect of pushing to re-open everywhere possible as soon as possible in red states (and also some blue). but in the end it'll be 100% the protesters fault, regardless)

But not the fault of the people protesting the shut-downs.

Of course not, because they were protected by their guns

America has just given up on this

where Trump goeth, most follow, even his 'rivals'