love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

i know what my enemies are getting for Christmas now

wonder if watson is also finding being publicly denied a peerage because he's shit and a wanker 'a relief'

Reopening schools is pretty unpopular within the country at large and will presumably become more so when parents have to negotiate the school gates and when kids start coming back with stories of what it's actually like.

Dunt cry for me Argentina

Ian Dunt, eh? Dad's family is English, well, Irish, er British, no, Lebanese. His mum grew up in Chile, no I meant Guetalamala, no sorry, I was thinking of Belize. Dunt himself, grew up in Winchester, no sorry, Southampton, silly me, I meant Chile, Damnit, Hampshire @IanDunt pic.twitter.com/JU1Z2Otcnh

— Matthew Black (@NoirMJ) June 1, 2020

lol worra wanker!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov4epAJRPMw

my son’s primary school isn’t reopening until the 16th. apparently a lot of parents showed today with their kids in uniform - d’oh!

Nothing to see here let's get those oldies out and about

The Government has included an additional 445 deaths which had previously not been included in the daily figures which means the total number of recorded deaths is 556 higher than as was reported yesterday

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 1, 2020

I get breaking news alerts from Upday, an app which came pre-installed on my phone that I had never heard of before. Each day around tea-time I get the total figure in the format: "X people have died taking the total number of deaths to Y." Today for the first time since this began, they changed the format to "total number of cases of infection is now X." It's being masked and it's a fucking disgrace.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2102

England is abandoning lockdown and possibly hope of containing a second wave of covid-19. From 1 June schools will open to children other than those of key workers. Outdoor markets and car showrooms will reopen. In two weeks, it will be the turn of all non-essential retailers. This is meant to be a moment of optimism, a green recovery, centred on the health of people and the planet (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2077, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2076), backed by an effective system of testing and contact tracing and possibly informed by a public inquiry (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2052).

Instead, England arrives here in a state of utter confusion (doi:10.1136/bmj.m1785). The public’s confidence in the official lockdown advice is shaken. The covid-19 response is short on testing, uncertain on contact tracing, and reliant on unreliable apps (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2085). Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are not following England’s lead. The UK has the second highest number of covid-19 deaths of any nation and, by some calculations, the most deaths per capita.

England’s decisions seem rooted in a desire to restart the economy rather than an overabundance of science (doi:10.1136/bmj.m1847, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2045), an important aim except that it may backfire unless properly timed and with the right systems in place. Easing lockdown requires professional as well as public backing, and the decision on schools is opposed by teaching unions concerned about the lack of a proper system of test, trace and isolate.

These concerns are shared by the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergenices (iSAGE), whose open meeting on 22 May and paper on school reopening recommend waiting until mid-June to reduce risks (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2079). The government published its own scientific advice soon after, although curiously its chosen method of reopening is not one of the nine scenarios modelled (https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/22/ministers-rejected-school-reopening-plan-recommended-by-sage-experts).

Transparency and political interference in scientific advice was controversial even before a trip to Durham by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior aide. It seems incredible that Dominic Cummings, who attended the government’s scientific advisory committee and plays a key role in the pandemic response, thought it reasonable to carry covid-19 from London to a region of lower infectivity and into a local hospital.

Johnson’s darkest hour, his decision to essentially prioritise Cummings over the pandemic response, had at least three immediate effects. First and foremost, it seriously damaged public trust and goodwill in complying with lockdown measures, risking a deadlier next wave of infection. Second, it belittled staff and patients who have risen to complex logistic, clinical and personal challenges while delivering care (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2043, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2055, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2062, doi:10.1136/bmj.m1987). Third, it forced the government’s scientific advisers into open dissent (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2109).

Scientists and doctors in advisory positions face a dual obligation to the state and to the public. But what happens when the government’s integrity no longer matches your personal or professional integrity, when your public accountability seems greater than that of the politicians you advise? Do you fight from within? Do you speak out, and even resign? What of the leaders of medical organisations working closely with the government? Regrettably, questions of conscience and duty must now be addressed.

In a sense, whatever the result this, this is criminal because the motivations are clearly (deliberately) uninformed, reckless, and unconcerned for the public. We shouldn't just hold them to account if the worst happens.

Three Cheers For Bozza! Can We Have Our Pubs Back Next!

Has anyone really written about the effect on retail/hospitality that is so bleedingly going to him?

If I work in a restaurant that can only let in half the customers, surely it would take (at least) half the takings and presumably half the workforce would have to quit/be made redundant/fired/furloughed? Same is true for shops that can only fit in so many customers.

A restaurant is easy to talk about, even if they come back later than shops do, because it is easy to imagine, product, what staff provide, how many customers etc. when a lot of shops on the high street provide different services, from different sources, making them a less convenient example. So in imagining the average restaurant, as an example for retail in general, if there are half the tables, half the staff to prep/serve food/drinks... you would presume there would be only half the ingredients bought. So whoever sources the food/drinks, be it farm/fishery/manufacturer would presumably have less money coming in, more waste, and less opportunity to pay staff. So more potential lay-offs. This is all working on a scenario where things go back to normal, sales wise, with just social distancing measures applied. What happens if things do not go back to a relative normal? Also, if all of those potential people lose their job, who the fuck is going to spend a weeks supermarket shop cost at one night in a restaurant?

I guess I just don’t really understand how the incredible push to get the economy back up is going to work. And not just in the smaller retail sector. A friend is a coder for a massive earning hedge fund, my brother works for an online gambling company. Both are actively trying to get out of their offices, now knowing everyone can and wants to work remotely. I know lol won’t anyone think of the landlords, but it just seems like wherever I turn my head, people and businesses, big or small, are cutting, not looking to make money or invest money, but are trying to get smaller, to find reasons why not employing or taking on risky ventures, even ones that would seemed relatively normal only a couple months back.

It all just seems so out of whack with the idea of jump starting the economy. You watch the news and there is always a new rolls royce or whoever cutting thousands of jobs, regardless of when or how quickly vulnerable can be told to get outside. Basically... idk... I just wanted to rant, none of it seems to make any bloody sense, no one seems to know what they are doing, and there doesn’t seem to be any connection between bloody millions losing their jobs and the assumption everyone has been desperately waiting to go buy some tat they don’t need from John Lewis for months, ‘rona be damned.

it doesn't make sense and I suspect that the assumption is that it will work bc in reality bc the social distancing regulations in shops will not be enforced beyond head office putting a poster up for staff to read. they are basically asking staff to do things like organise all books in a waterstones that have been handled to be kept in storage for 72 hours. I can't imagine how complicated and labour intensive that would be for the staff on minimum wage to organise, if it were me i would not feel especially incentivised to protect customers from a virus that i am exposed to daily. also what's going to be left in the shops after everyone has thumbed all the bbc tie-in copies of normal people? 'nigel havers' guide to the peak district' and 'carol vorderman: a manual for looking good and feeling great!'?

I saw someone from Kurt Geiger on Sky talking about how their plan is, if anyone tries on a pair of shoes and decides not to buy them, then they'll be "quarantining" the shoes from the shop floor for a few days and cleaning them. Which is fine for Kurt Geiger, but that's not going to work in Primark. The supermarket is a nightmare as it is - you queue to get in so there's only a certain amount of people in at a time, but are they fuck following the one-way systems or keeping out of each others way once they're inside. Staff don't care, and for a minimum wage why should they be feeling obliged to look after people who won't do anything to look after themselves?

They're essentially asking staff to be security as well and people policing the security of shops get shouted at and shouting may = infection and possibly illness or even death. I'm amazed by the employees in supermarkets' insouciance.

They really are risking their lives.

This is unconscionable. The Govt delayed the release of the Public Health England report on disproportionate BAME deaths from COVID-19 because they were worried about BLM protests and backlash.
How little they value the lives that the report is meant to help save. https://t.co/hIJQgh7Qpe

— Kishani Widyaratna (@KishWidyaratna) June 1, 2020

Times Radio, the new Murdoch-backed ad-free talk station that may or may not be a rival to Radio 4, has a confirmed launch date of 29 June. Here’s the full schedule. pic.twitter.com/mHgo9cyHFG

— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 2, 2020

if you ever longed for more portillo or 3 hours of matt chorley on the radio 4 days a week and other unique content such as the amber and flora podcast then brace yourself for this

Gotta reach the boomers and keep them Tory when newspapers collapse.

http://www.stuc.org.uk/media-centre/news/1448/stuc-re-asserts-its-five-red-lines-for-relaxing-lock-down-as-government-releases-workplace-guidance-on-manufacturing-retail-and-transport

Scotland: Official return-to-work guidance advises the use of Union Roving Health and Safety Reps who will now be on call for workers and employers in non-unionised workplaces.

Mariella Frostrup does loads of voiceovers and very little else, yet she seems to get by.

this was so grimly inevitable. the guidance a family member has received is virtually nonexistent. seeing this sort of mass manslaughter of those with disabilities get explained away by various establishment figures as people who "would have died anyway" has been beyond grotesque https://t.co/uWr9bQmsTj

— Stan The Golden Boy (@tristandross) June 2, 2020

underneath the din of air-horns and clapping and all the cummings outrage there has been a *mysterious* 134% increase in deaths of people with a learning disability it seems.

She’s married to a rich dude and has loads of property thanks to buying in Notting Hill in the early ‘80s.

Times Radio, the new Murdoch-backed ad-free talk station that may or may not be a rival to Radio 4

This seems to be a bunch of talk-radio jocks, much more a rival to LBC etc than Radio 4

They've sprinkled some BBC/Channel 4 journalists in there.

How long before Brendan O'Peasant and his crew get their own slot though?

🐦[Times Radio, the new Murdoch-backed ad-free talk station that may or may not be a rival to Radio 4, has a confirmed launch date of 29 June. Here’s the full schedule. pic.twitter.com/mHgo9cyHFG🕸
— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 2, 2020🕸]🐦

if you ever longed for more portillo or 3 hours of matt chorley on the radio 4 days a week and other unique content such as the amber and flora podcast then brace yourself for this

I'm sure that pompous arsewipe Pienaar got a payrise out of Murdoch but it still seems like a demotion from deputy political editor for BBC News, even as rotten as the BBC is.

as good a place as any to mention the quiz show i heard a bit of on Radio 4 yesterday afternoon, the least Radio 4-sounding thing i've ever heard, with some witless local radio Sunday morning host doing his local radio pop triv patter. i thought the radio must be broken so i checked the programme guide and it was Stuart Maconie.

lol jesus wept!

I probably haven't listened to the radio in about ten years. I had a housemate that listened to radio 4 in the kitchen and it used to drive me insane

i guess lockdown means they'll let anybody have a go, time to pitch my Ken Burns-style 12 hour documentary on the history of Toilet Duck

Wait, it's ad-free? Unless they're planning on doing mad sponsorship deals - and they'll need a big listenership for them - then it's just Murdoch pouring money down the drain and how long is he planning on doing that for?

Till he dies? (Hopefully a cheap prospect for him)

yeah i was thinking of the line from Citizen Kane

I was wondering what the middle class equivalent would be of those white van man ads on Talk Radio for widgets and wrenches and ballcocks.

Shepherd’s huts and posh sheds.

Thinking about yesterday's economic talk, the last few months have been a major blow to the idea that economic growth in all circumstances is ultimately a good thing. A recession, or at least a major suppression of economic activity, in this case is a good thing if it enables you to get to grips with the virus. If you haven't got to grips with the virus and it starts to spread uncontrollably again then you've essentially invited a deep recession and spent billions in public money for no reason.

One more month and the virus would probably have been at a low enough level to allow them to open things up in a more sensible way. You cannot run a socially distanced restaurant profitably without a massive reduction in rent. Same goes for a shop probably and I don't think clothes retail is going to come back any time soon. The economy in general isn't going to come back until people feel safe enough to go out and spend, maybe the public will just go out and do it anyway but if that causes another flare-up of the virus then they'll start to voluntarily lock down again pretty quickly.

There is probably a gigantic crash coming in commercial real estate - retail was in trouble in lots of the country even before the virus and bars, restaurants etc won't be able to survive without significantly lower rents. White collar work will probably adapt with more people working from home but there's going to be a ton of empty/unused office space out there.

Whatever happens we are probably looking at a slow drift towards more normal ways of behaving and in a couple of years I think people will be living more or less as they were - with some technological trends accelerated maybe. But the government trying to rush everything back to near normal by July is just an arbitrary deadline that could make the economic situation worse, not better. (Doesn't bode well for Brexit in December/January either and that's a whole other disaster in the making).

the arbitrariness is the real horror show: it'd be one thing if they were prioritising greed over lives but the overwhelming impression is simply that they don't know what they're doing. there's the real possibility that a decent summer might keep the R number suppressed for a while? combo of the virus not enjoying the weather and people being that bit more distant outside. if there's a spike towards the end of autumn/beginning of winter god knows how this government will deal with it, how it will be reported or what the public's attitude in general will be. i still have the idea that in the UK at least there could become a grim fatalism to a steady toll of "background" deaths mostly concentrated in sections of society that are already neglected.

in reference to the economic future i've seen no evidence that anybody in the public or parliamentary political sphere is taking advantage of this experience to advocate for changes to the way we organize economic activity as a state, never mind as a society. that's the most depressing aspect of all of this to me: something potentially world-altering is happening now and bar the kind of inevitable and marginal changes you mention Matt i don't see anybody grasping the possibilities.

(nb: this isn't specifically about the Labour leadership, but it is about the dead hand of the Labour party which wouldn't have been much different under a Corbynish direction)

never mind as a society species

"the dead hand of the Labour party"

I know I said Starmer is a f/t wanker, but I didn't mean it literally!

We've normalised 100 people dying every day. If it stays at that level you're still looking at 21,000 deaths by the end of the year. That's assuming it takes at least that long to develop a vaccine but also that we don't have another spike (we will). I can't believe that's going to end up as background noise.

also that CQC report is heartbreaking. This idea that your worth is attached to your ability to contribute to society via capitalism needs to fuck off forever

i've seen nothing in this country's politics during my lifetime that makes me think that will happen

Tbh it's not only the UK that is not taking advantage of this moment but I do see this pandemic as one in a series of events that will make growth and our way of living pretty much impossible as it is.

Although things will change, many will find perhaps frightening ways to adapt to the constant 'disruption' and barbarism to come.

unfortunately otm

Normalising hundreds or thousands of deaths is what human beings do. Think about the best day of your life - hundreds of people with worthwhile lives and grieving families died in this country alone, some of them in entirely avoidable ways. There are limits to human empathy when things start to seem normal.

It's why fixating on the death rate alone - no matter how high it is - isn't enough and why it isn't constantly on the front pages. The thing that might drive behavioral change - and almost certainly already has - is the deaths that might still happen, particularly if its your parents, grandparents, your friend who had a heart transplant etc.

you could argue the same about public attitudes to the welfare system - exposure to more friends and loved ones struggling to survive thru unemployment benefits etc - but again without being melodramatic i wouldn't bet on it