love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

yeah just in general on its face it's insane

If there's no evidence that immunity lasts for more than a few months then herd immunity doesn't work as a goal full stop. Whether 80% of the population get it at once or in a more controlled manner is irrelevant.

I think you might be jamming concepts together here, Tracer - the whole idea of herd immunity is based on immunity being semi-permanent. If it's only limited (and there's not much evidence of that - there's not much evidence of anything at the range of 'more than a few months') then herd immunity isn't a goer.

if immunity only lasts a few months wouldn't it also mean a vaccine would only work for a few months?

My favourite herd immunity commenter was an impressive sounding consultant cardiologist who had himself recovered from C-19 and uncategorically dismissed it as " a nice idea, but complete nonsense" in a very "don't waste my time with this bs" manner.

is there any circumstance where deliberately engineering a situation in which 90-95% of the public are exposed to the coronavirus is 'a goer'???

if there was an angry god of diseases that could only be appeased by 1m + victims it might be a goer!

Insisting on herd immunity to see if that Tory polling dips below 50%, as a treat.

that could be the Starmer Surge!

Lol the five tests!

How will the UK get out of lockdown?
 
The UK government has set out five tests that have to be met before restrictions are eased
 
So, what are the tests and how close are we to meeting them?
 
[Thread]
 https://t.co/h1R8IpNoCC

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) April 23, 2020

The idea is, I presume, that unless we keep everyone stuck in their homes forever, it's going to happen sooner or later because viruses don't just disappear, especially one that's this contagious. It's the idea that we allow it to ravage the whole country at once that's irresponsible and dumb.

The best argument for the lockdown is that it buys us time, not until a vaccine, but until drugs can be found that reliably reduced the severity of the infection. If any of these ongoing drug trials are found to significantly reduce the death rate then the idea might be a goer. Until then it just isn't.

If there's no long-term immunity AND no vaccine then as a species we're probably just fucked.

Most people survive covid, but yes I think Capitalism might have found its match.

"Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand"

This will be a new approach for them.

if immunity only lasts a few months wouldn't it also mean a vaccine would only work for a few months?

I think they do something to amplify immune system memory - around 9 minutes here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl

i googled to see why some viruses require new vaccines once a year (flu) and some are good for a lifetime (measles seemingly) but stopped when i found this 16th century aztec picture of a man with measles which needed sharing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles#/media/File:Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b1/Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg/800px-Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg

A vaccine that we all have to get on an annual basis is not the worst thing imaginable.

who knew that private eye cartoonists were working in the 16th century xp

impressed they had lanyards with ID badge back then.

That study of the German town suggests mortality rate seems to be more like 0.3%. So three times as bad as flu, but not 3.5%. Still a staggering 160,000 dead to get to herd immunity the hard way. And increasing suggestions that it won't work, as immunity might not last long enough.

Most of the vaccines they're focusing on now seemingly work by being carried on other viruses that we do create long-term immunity to, the idea being that this will also give us CV immunity at least for a few years. So vaccine-acquired herd immunity can work even when natural herd immunity fails

that 0.3% figure also presupposes a capable and well-supplied health service to deal with the crisis, which might be true of Germany but seems... optimistic here

yeah, in cases of healthcase collapse it's more like 20%

xp Yeah, that's the figure for "if you get this you are going to die anyway", adjust upwards according to health service.

If there's no long-term immunity AND no vaccine then as a species we're probably just fucked.

One thing I don't know is, if you're one of the 50% who don't get any symptoms at all when affected, is that a permanent effect, is it just "Oh, I don't get Covid"?

Doesn't seem to be conclusive but there is some suggestion the level of immunity might be linked to the level of severity

Probably immunity will last longer than flu vaccines because this doesn’t mutate enough to make any real difference, whereas the flu changes fast and often enough to require new shots every year. Even then they’re only covering a few strains. All I’ve read on this suggests it’s more like measles.

Thanks Todd

The fastest vaccine development ever - from start to finish - was the Mumps vaccine. It took 4 years.

— Todd Pollack (@toddmpollack) April 23, 2020

This one’s moving a lot faster, there are over a hundred either being trialled or in development!

In the video woof shared the Dr mentioned that a lot of the processes around vaccine dev have been speeded up from years to months. We could see that record broken xp

Also the MERS vaccines in development will have a lot of application towards this as the two are quite similar.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/microneedle-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-mice

this pisses me off so much

The NHS director for workforce race and equality has said that the disproportionate deaths of BAME NHS staff might be influenced by cultural factors because some people "see working in the NHS as more of a vocation than an occupation". What does this mean?https://t.co/nwHudcKJAm

— Covideology (@MediocreDave) April 22, 2020

I *think* he's talking about the extent to which the commitment of NHS workers is being exploited (and it's hard to argue against that right now) but I'm not entirely convinced that breaks down according to racial lines. It's much more likely to be a result of housing conditions, income disparity, work travel necessities etc than other cultural factors.

I'm inclined to read a Muslim doctor from the Mary Seacole Trust charitably on this and it could refer to a bunch of stuff. Quite a few of the BAME doctors who have died were older than the average retirement age for the profession and they've all been NHS aiui, rather than having jumped ship to private practice where they'd be at lower risk.

At the same time, that can't be used to gloss over stuff like BAME staff being much more reluctant to raise safety concerns due to fears of recrimination, any differences in the way BAME nurses are treated when it comes to assigning risky work, etc

I'm open to the possibility that he might have been selectively quoted by Sky News as well.

One thing I don't know is, if you're one of the 50% who don't get any symptoms at all when affected, is that a permanent effect, is it just "Oh, I don't get Covid"?

it seems reasonable to think it works like other things i.e. colds, the flu, stomach bugs. everyone in your house might have symptoms and you don't, but that doesn't mean you can't then get symptoms the next time around.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWQWEiaXsAEAmkk?format=jpg&name=large

this lot make turrican look good!

semi off topic even virus-wise but the chickenpox/shingles thing remains baffling to me: are you vulnerable to shingles if you've had chickenpox or does having chickenpox mean you won't get shingles? i've heard ppl ver firmly argue both ways and now i need ilx to assuage my worries

also my dad nearly died of chickenpox in his late 70s -- life saved by an alert young GP whp realised the problem -- when he was certain he had had it as a child. my mum took the opportunity to denounce his mum (then long dead) as "just as useless as ever" lol.

you are vulnerable to shingles if you’ve had chickenpox.

steady on calz

that sucks then xp

my understanding is if you've had chickenpox then shingles is a possibility because the virus lurks inside you forever. what you don't want is chickenpox as an adult cos that can make you very ill. had chickenpox as a child and never had shingles tho.

shingles are the dormant VZV in your nerves rising up to take advantage of a compromised immune system

And if even an ubermensch like Toby Young can get shingles - what's the hope for us subhmans?

bit of a tangent but I was reading about chickenpox vaccines and went down a wormhole leading to this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/vaccination-anti-vaxxers-measles-rubella-parents-not-vacinating

the comments are lambasting this person for not being vaccinated against rubella - and I was thinking, I never got vaccinated against measles, mumps or rubella, but I've had mumps and rubella - am I an accidental antivaxxer? should I go to the GP (not now but after lockdown) and ask to be vaccinated against measles?? I only got tetanus, polio, typhoid and whooping cough vaccines afaik. Somehow I didn't catch TB off my wife despite not getting the TB vaccine either

i believe measles is more dangerous for adults so i think the answer is yes, CP!

(or at least talk to a doctor abt it) (apparently if you were born before 1957 you are considered naturally immune)

my childhood memory of having measles at the age of 8 was that it was absolutely horrendous. Well the week before the spotty rash broke out, but memories like this aren't always reliable but I felt I was going to die and might even have been hallucinating at one point!

bit of a tangent but I was reading about chickenpox vaccines and went down a wormhole leading to this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/vaccination-anti-vaxxers-measles-rubella-parents-not-vacinating🕸

the comments are lambasting this person for not being vaccinated against rubella - and I was thinking, I never got vaccinated against measles, mumps or rubella, but I've had mumps and rubella - am I an accidental antivaxxer? should I go to the GP (not now but after lockdown) and ask to be vaccinated against measles?? I only got tetanus, polio, typhoid and whooping cough vaccines afaik. Somehow I didn't catch TB off my wife despite not getting the TB vaccine either

My mum fell for old school antivax hype resulting in me almost dying from whooping cough as a baby. I now have a chronic lung disease, probably due to the whooping cough, which makes me vulnerable to CV19. Thanks Mum!

I've never had chicken pox despite pretty much everyone I know having it at one point. I've had measles twice, which is also odd.

https://twitter.com/zaynahjpg/status/1253357337508810758