Right, but why would that (80% of the population all having the virus at the same time) be what's needed for effective herd immunity?
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:40 (four years ago) link
unless I have completely misunderstood the concept, which is probably quite likely, what about herd immunity requires 80% to have it at the same time? I thought it's that 80% of people have had it already at some point so are immune to it now. why would they all have to have it at once?
― Colonel Poo, Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:42 (four years ago) link
80% of 67m uk residents is 53.6mmortality rate of 3.5% means 1,867,000 people dead from the ‘rona in the uk sure, let’s fuckin’ go full judge death on this, people need to get back to their hairdresser asap
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:47 (four years ago) link
CP - there is no evidence that immunity lasts for more than a few months
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:49 (four years ago) link
yeah just in general on its face it's insane
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:50 (four years ago) link
If there's no evidence that immunity lasts for more than a few months then herd immunity doesn't work as a goal full stop. Whether 80% of the population get it at once or in a more controlled manner is irrelevant.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:53 (four years ago) link
I think you might be jamming concepts together here, Tracer - the whole idea of herd immunity is based on immunity being semi-permanent. If it's only limited (and there's not much evidence of that - there's not much evidence of anything at the range of 'more than a few months') then herd immunity isn't a goer.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:57 (four years ago) link
if immunity only lasts a few months wouldn't it also mean a vaccine would only work for a few months?
― The Cognitive Peasant (ogmor), Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:58 (four years ago) link
My favourite herd immunity commenter was an impressive sounding consultant cardiologist who had himself recovered from C-19 and uncategorically dismissed it as " a nice idea, but complete nonsense" in a very "don't waste my time with this bs" manner.
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 11:59 (four years ago) link
is there any circumstance where deliberately engineering a situation in which 90-95% of the public are exposed to the coronavirus is 'a goer'???
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:00 (four years ago) link
if there was an angry god of diseases that could only be appeased by 1m + victims it might be a goer!
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:03 (four years ago) link
Insisting on herd immunity to see if that Tory polling dips below 50%, as a treat.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:03 (four years ago) link
that could be the Starmer Surge!
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:06 (four years ago) link
Lol the five tests!
How will the UK get out of lockdown? The UK government has set out five tests that have to be met before restrictions are eased So, what are the tests and how close are we to meeting them? [Thread] https://t.co/h1R8IpNoCC— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) April 23, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:07 (four years ago) link
The idea is, I presume, that unless we keep everyone stuck in their homes forever, it's going to happen sooner or later because viruses don't just disappear, especially one that's this contagious. It's the idea that we allow it to ravage the whole country at once that's irresponsible and dumb.
The best argument for the lockdown is that it buys us time, not until a vaccine, but until drugs can be found that reliably reduced the severity of the infection. If any of these ongoing drug trials are found to significantly reduce the death rate then the idea might be a goer. Until then it just isn't.
If there's no long-term immunity AND no vaccine then as a species we're probably just fucked.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:08 (four years ago) link
Most people survive covid, but yes I think Capitalism might have found its match.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:11 (four years ago) link
"Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand"
This will be a new approach for them.
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:12 (four years ago) link
I think they do something to amplify immune system memory - around 9 minutes here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl
― woof, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:13 (four years ago) link
i googled to see why some viruses require new vaccines once a year (flu) and some are good for a lifetime (measles seemingly) but stopped when i found this 16th century aztec picture of a man with measles which needed sharing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles#/media/File:Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg
― mark s, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:16 (four years ago) link
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b1/Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg/800px-Measles_Aztec_drawing.jpg
― mark s, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:17 (four years ago) link
A vaccine that we all have to get on an annual basis is not the worst thing imaginable.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:21 (four years ago) link
who knew that private eye cartoonists were working in the 16th century xp
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:22 (four years ago) link
impressed they had lanyards with ID badge back then.
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:27 (four years ago) link
That study of the German town suggests mortality rate seems to be more like 0.3%. So three times as bad as flu, but not 3.5%. Still a staggering 160,000 dead to get to herd immunity the hard way. And increasing suggestions that it won't work, as immunity might not last long enough.
― stet, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:28 (four years ago) link
Most of the vaccines they're focusing on now seemingly work by being carried on other viruses that we do create long-term immunity to, the idea being that this will also give us CV immunity at least for a few years. So vaccine-acquired herd immunity can work even when natural herd immunity fails
― stet, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:29 (four years ago) link
that 0.3% figure also presupposes a capable and well-supplied health service to deal with the crisis, which might be true of Germany but seems... optimistic here
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:50 (four years ago) link
yeah, in cases of healthcase collapse it's more like 20%
― stet, Thursday, 23 April 2020 12:57 (four years ago) link
xp Yeah, that's the figure for "if you get this you are going to die anyway", adjust upwards according to health service.
One thing I don't know is, if you're one of the 50% who don't get any symptoms at all when affected, is that a permanent effect, is it just "Oh, I don't get Covid"?
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:03 (four years ago) link
Doesn't seem to be conclusive but there is some suggestion the level of immunity might be linked to the level of severity
― stet, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:05 (four years ago) link
Probably immunity will last longer than flu vaccines because this doesn’t mutate enough to make any real difference, whereas the flu changes fast and often enough to require new shots every year. Even then they’re only covering a few strains. All I’ve read on this suggests it’s more like measles.
― gyac, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:05 (four years ago) link
Thanks Todd
The fastest vaccine development ever - from start to finish - was the Mumps vaccine. It took 4 years.— Todd Pollack (@toddmpollack) April 23, 2020
― stet, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:08 (four years ago) link
This one’s moving a lot faster, there are over a hundred either being trialled or in development!
― gyac, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:13 (four years ago) link
In the video woof shared the Dr mentioned that a lot of the processes around vaccine dev have been speeded up from years to months. We could see that record broken xp
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:13 (four years ago) link
Also the MERS vaccines in development will have a lot of application towards this as the two are quite similar.
― gyac, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:16 (four years ago) link
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/microneedle-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-mice
― gyac, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:19 (four years ago) link
this pisses me off so much
The NHS director for workforce race and equality has said that the disproportionate deaths of BAME NHS staff might be influenced by cultural factors because some people "see working in the NHS as more of a vocation than an occupation". What does this mean?https://t.co/nwHudcKJAm— Covideology (@MediocreDave) April 22, 2020
― fuck it (Left), Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:25 (four years ago) link
I *think* he's talking about the extent to which the commitment of NHS workers is being exploited (and it's hard to argue against that right now) but I'm not entirely convinced that breaks down according to racial lines. It's much more likely to be a result of housing conditions, income disparity, work travel necessities etc than other cultural factors.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:45 (four years ago) link
I'm inclined to read a Muslim doctor from the Mary Seacole Trust charitably on this and it could refer to a bunch of stuff. Quite a few of the BAME doctors who have died were older than the average retirement age for the profession and they've all been NHS aiui, rather than having jumped ship to private practice where they'd be at lower risk.
At the same time, that can't be used to gloss over stuff like BAME staff being much more reluctant to raise safety concerns due to fears of recrimination, any differences in the way BAME nurses are treated when it comes to assigning risky work, etc
― ShariVari, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:56 (four years ago) link
I'm open to the possibility that he might have been selectively quoted by Sky News as well.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 23 April 2020 13:59 (four years ago) link
it seems reasonable to think it works like other things i.e. colds, the flu, stomach bugs. everyone in your house might have symptoms and you don't, but that doesn't mean you can't then get symptoms the next time around.
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 23 April 2020 14:02 (four years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWQWEiaXsAEAmkk?format=jpg&name=large
this lot make turrican look good!
― calzino, Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:25 (four years ago) link
semi off topic even virus-wise but the chickenpox/shingles thing remains baffling to me: are you vulnerable to shingles if you've had chickenpox or does having chickenpox mean you won't get shingles? i've heard ppl ver firmly argue both ways and now i need ilx to assuage my worries
also my dad nearly died of chickenpox in his late 70s -- life saved by an alert young GP whp realised the problem -- when he was certain he had had it as a child. my mum took the opportunity to denounce his mum (then long dead) as "just as useless as ever" lol.
― mark s, Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:28 (four years ago) link
you are vulnerable to shingles if you’ve had chickenpox.
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:31 (four years ago) link
steady on calz
― clap for content-providers (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:32 (four years ago) link
that sucks then xp
― mark s, Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:33 (four years ago) link
my understanding is if you've had chickenpox then shingles is a possibility because the virus lurks inside you forever. what you don't want is chickenpox as an adult cos that can make you very ill. had chickenpox as a child and never had shingles tho.
― clap for content-providers (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:33 (four years ago) link
shingles are the dormant VZV in your nerves rising up to take advantage of a compromised immune system
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:33 (four years ago) link
And if even an ubermensch like Toby Young can get shingles - what's the hope for us subhmans?
― The Corbynite Maneuver (Tom D.), Thursday, 23 April 2020 15:36 (four years ago) link
bit of a tangent but I was reading about chickenpox vaccines and went down a wormhole leading to this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/vaccination-anti-vaxxers-measles-rubella-parents-not-vacinating
the comments are lambasting this person for not being vaccinated against rubella - and I was thinking, I never got vaccinated against measles, mumps or rubella, but I've had mumps and rubella - am I an accidental antivaxxer? should I go to the GP (not now but after lockdown) and ask to be vaccinated against measles?? I only got tetanus, polio, typhoid and whooping cough vaccines afaik. Somehow I didn't catch TB off my wife despite not getting the TB vaccine either
― Colonel Poo, Thursday, 23 April 2020 16:05 (four years ago) link
i believe measles is more dangerous for adults so i think the answer is yes, CP!
(or at least talk to a doctor abt it) (apparently if you were born before 1957 you are considered naturally immune)
― mark s, Thursday, 23 April 2020 16:42 (four years ago) link