We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

The disinformation problem is huge and complicated. In a lot of ways it should be deemed intolerable because it literally endangers others and our reasonable limits on speech come into play. Chaos comes when enough damage has already been done that the ones tasked with enforcing what’s reasonable can’t agree on what‘s true.

I take it the border saves Trump from any citizen's arrests?

The disinformation problem is huge and complicated. In a lot of ways it should be deemed intolerable because it literally endangers others and our reasonable limits on speech come into play. Chaos comes when enough damage has already been done that the ones tasked with enforcing what’s reasonable can’t agree on what‘s true.

I don't agree that the examples given in the article meet the standard of things it should be illegal to say. (My standard for this is pretty high and definitely higher than the SCC's tbf.) Anything that does would be covered under existing legislation, though, so I don't see a need for a new law.

I get what you’re saying, but at the same time I could give you the names of around ten people who now say they won’t be vaccinating their children and will sign a petition against 5G because of one “passionate and dedicated” (their words) mom in one of my local facebook groups. Just a personal anecdote, yes, but I’m running into this stuff everywhere. A relative *urgently* sends me batshit propaganda, anti Bill Gates type videos almost daily now, This person used to be ok. My ethical threshold has definitely been crossed, but when it needs to be put in legal terms, you are right. I don’t really know what the solution is.

I know a couple of people who sound like Justin Trudeau and even have similar delivery! They’re lifelong bilingual Montrealers - and each went to private high school and/or a small anglo university like Bishops!
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Ugh to general parenting fb groups that don’t automatically banhammer antivax talk :/

I agree with you. Unfortunately a lot of people in them take foolish pride in being non judgemental.

This seems like a convincing enough argument against the 'herd immunity' idea that Legault seems to be pitching: https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Some alternative perspectives are cited here, though: https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/coronavirus-legault-prepares-quebecers-for-idea-of-herd-immunity/

Doesn't seem to be working v well for Sweden, from what I gather?

'Herd immunity' is just code for 'we need to get the economy up and running again'. While I get that keeping things at a relative standstill isn't feasible in the long run, Legault's 180-degree turn doesn't inspire confidence at all. His back-to-school policy has me worried not so much for the kids as for their parents. And what about more traditional – often immigrant – low-income households that comprise several generations, including the elderly?

The WHO issued this timely reminder today:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says

'Herd immunity' is just code for 'we need to get the economy up and running again'.

It is also code for 'we don't think it will hurt us personally, just a bunch of people we don't care much about, especially weighed against our own security, comfort and convenience'. This approach should be a last resort, a backstop for if the search for a safe, effective vaccine completely fails.

Indeed. And it's especially problematic insofar as Quebec accounts for approximately half of all Covid-19 cases in Canada and 59% of deaths nationwide, despite being home to only 23% of the country's population.

WHO also issued this correction:

Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on "immunity passports". The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify:

We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. pic.twitter.com/AmxvQQLTjM

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) April 25, 2020

Swedish results seem mixed, but not disastrous:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

The follow-up tweet seems significant:

What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions. pic.twitter.com/DisLjWCa4U

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) April 25, 2020

This also seems like a key passage from the BBC article:

Sweden, with a population of 10 million, remains amongst the top 20 in the world when it comes to the total number of cases, even though it mostly only tests those with severe symptoms. More widespread checks on key workers are now being introduced.
It has higher death rates in relation to its population size than anywhere else in Scandinavia.

Worldometer counts 217 deaths per million population in Sweden vs 65 in Canada fwiw. (The graphs that come with the BBC article seem misleading as they don't adjust for population size.) Do you see an upside being reported?

Anyway, it does seem that Legault is talking about something closer to a controlled, gradual, monitored easing of restrictions, which might make some sense?

More cases would be expected - that's the whole idea! But in terms of deaths, etc, the results seem equivocal. Nothing disastrous SO FAR. They're "worse off" than the rest of Scandinavia right now, but if their theory holds they'll be better off in the long run. (Obviously I have NO IDEA if their theory works.)

Montreal's "deaths per million" is 459, btw, and we're doing a (relatively) good job with social distancing, much stricter than Sweden. (Of course, most of our deaths are due to a disastrous, depressing long-term care home situation.)

BTW, I do not support this "herd immunity" thing - but after talking with a Swedish friend, I was surprised at how OK it seemed to be going.

Interesting points. It does seem that part of what might be helping in Sweden is that people are voluntarily physical distancing as it is. Probably relates to the thesis of this piece, that, even with the lifting of govt restrictions, economic behaviour will just not go back to 'normal' before we have a vaccine: https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

conventional wisdom seems to be accruing that "the virus can stay on hard surfaces" while true isn't the cause of any known transmission, it's all about HVAC and peopled trapped indoors with each other. so i expect the relaxing of distancing to be more about outdoor stuff than about resuming work in close closed spaces

herd immunity kicks in around 80%. a serology study found that NYC had 20% cases. so NYC would "only" have to have 3 more outbreaks of considerable size for it to kick in :-/

Haha, yeah, that was my issue earlier - I wasn't hearing about anyone catching Covid from sitting on a park bench.

http://www.blogto.com/city/2020/04/amount-covid-19-recoveries-ontario-now-outnumbers-active-cases/

Comparing this to national, American, and global figures:

Ontario - recovered, 7,087/active, 5,669
Canada - recovered, 17,916/active, 26,813
USA - recovered, 122,675/active, 816,474
World - recoverd, 900,334/active, 1,920,169

I'm sure there are many other things that need to be factored into that.

Ugh.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/04/27/one-in-5-canadians-think-its-not-safe-to-sit-beside-an-asian-person-on-the-bus-according-to-recent-poll.html

the attacks on asian-canadians are horrible, but that is a confusing poll:

"VANCOUVER—Just under half of Canadians have reservations about sitting next to a Chinese or Asian person on a bus if the person was not wearing a mask, according to an advocacy group.

One in five Canadians asked in a poll taken in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal don’t think it is safe at all and 24 per cent of respondents said they were uncertain about the idea, according to a poll conducted by the Chinese Canadian National Council for Social Justice. The poll was conducted April 24 among 1,130 adults living in Canada’s three largest cities."

I don't think anybody wants to be sitting next to anyone else on the bus right now, no matter their race or masked-ness.

You're right, it's a poorly worded question, to say the least.

Did they ask about people of other races? Like, for me the answer is “it is not safe to sit on the bus next to a human who is not wearing a mask.” So if they only asked about Asians, it’s kind of a “when did you stop beating your wife” question.

yes that is the issue

It’s amazing to me how many Ontario conservatives have completely turned on Ford, who still seems to be acting with far more integrity and compassion than I would ever have imagined. They are full on insulting him and are demanding that he open things up immediately (check out his live feeds on fb to see it in action.) Apparently millions of people acting responsibly and accepting personal hardship to preserve an aging, vulnerable demographic (that also tends to vote right wing), somehow, somehow the conclusion is that it’s a left wing conspiracy...

I never would have predicted his caution in a million years. I do think he's dithering on schools, which I can't even understand politically--continuing to hedge angers both parents and teachers.

I've asked this before: what constitutes an outbreak?

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-s-sickkids-hospital-declares-covid-19-outbreak-1.4915861

"Outbreak" has always implied a large number to me--I don't know what that means exactly, but I don't think of two as an outbreak. I thought the word was CTV's, but it's actually in Sick Kids' original statement and tweet. Is "outbreak" not related to quantity, just the fact that someone has tested positive?

I thought the same as you but the Oxford dictionary that comes with my Mac does define it as "a sudden occurrence of something unwelcome, such as war or disease: the outbreak of World War II" so maybe any appearance could be considered an outbreak?

Agree that Ford has been surprisingly decent on this overall. BC's doing a little more for people who are already on assistance by adding a $300 supplement to the regular transfer or not clawing back any of the CERB/EI from their payments. A little weird that landlords here are still able to issue eviction notices even though hearings and orders are suspended: seems like it mostly functions to intimidate tenants who are not fully informed on the current policy. Still, we don't have too much to complain about, especially from a global perspective.

just slightly better than borowitz, but makes a good point:

https://thebeaverton.com/2020/04/doug-ford-rattles-bars-on-cell-as-imposter-continues-to-competently-manage-covid-19-pandemic/

Just read in the local paper that their definition of outbreak is:

A COVID-19 outbreak is identified as one or more case(s) of a confirmed positive case(s) — either resident or employee — in an institution, retirement residence or long-term care home.

assault weapon ban announced: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-gun-control-measures-ban-1.5552131

Yeah but as long as mass shootings don’t cease forever and ever such laws are useless and tyrannical.

I'm going to have to avoid postmedia even more than usual for the next month I guess lol

obvs this won't say your postmedia types, but I do think it's smart to label these weapons military hardware--no one (well likely almost no one) is out advocating for the right to bear tanks

Some bears only back down when the barrel of a tank is aimed at them. You just don’t know what it’s like up north.

The ban will be enacted through regulations approved by an order-in-council from cabinet — not through legislation.

Does anyone know how "orders-in-council from cabinet" work? I'm really unclear on it; I'd be interested in reading up on it.

they're primary legislation made under the royal prerogative, not subject to legislative review. hardly used nowadays. sort of like an executive order in the US? I suppose the rationale is that we are in an emergency situation and parliament can't sit. my expectation would be for trudeau to put forward legislation in parliament once the it opens again.

and really the only people who are upset are people who weren't going to vote for him ever anyway?

Ah, thanks. Executive orders in the US make sense to me bc of the separation of the executive and legislative branches in that system. I don't know if I've heard of these before in ours but makes sense that they would be used in an emergency situation, if used at all; I can see why it could raise concerns that a minority govt, especially, could do this, although I don't think I have an issue with the content of this one.

the last time I remember one being used in the uk was this terrible decision by the labour government in the 00s to override a uk court decision to allow the expelled Chagos Islanders to return home (which also ended up being challenged in court, long and the short of it - the Chagos islanders were never allowed to return)

While I think the ban is a good thing and right, and am almost impressed that Trudeau had the guts to just get it done, the fact that it’s via what amounts to a loophole, exploitation of situation, is not going to up down well (despite the fact that his detractors would support an equivalent opposite reaction in a heartbeat). This issue is like a hydra and chopping off one head seems to just give it that much more power. Much in the way a lot of international citizens actively involve themselves in protesting or supporting American politics, this is going to amp up a shit storm of international meddling into our own. The gun peeps are very threatened by this stuff and won’t just let live.

The gun peeps ... won’t just let live.”

Always self described law followers, so justified, safe and compliant, that is until the law is tweaked to keep up with reality. No matter that it is supported by public opinion - NEW laws, they cannot abide.

The jump in cases yesterday was so large it's hard to ignore: 2,760, almost double the previous high. We're almost at 900,000 tests, and the overall infection rate is between 6.5-7.0%, which is up from 5.8% when I posted three weeks ago. So there's a rise in prevalence, too, not just testing.

In ON or Canada? Where did you find info on new cases from yesterday?

Canada:

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/