love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

No one is doing US-style protests over here, and if they are they're the fringest of fringe cranks and barely visible. These people are disproportionately represented in right wing media like The Spectator but appear to have very little popular support. Something like 90% of the UK population is in favour of the lockdown.

I think the same is true of most of the US, and that the protests are getting coverage isn't in line with the numbers, and exaggerates the support?

Twitter thread on the 41k figure.

NEW: The excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus are likely to be around

41,000

as of yesterday, not the 17,337 of the hospital deaths announcements

Here is the explanation for that estimate, which I will update daily

1/

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) April 22, 2020

In terms of ministers going or not it seems they are hanging out that care minister to dry.

This crisis has broken the political firewall. It’s not just left-wing pundits pointing out the failure. Minister after minister is now being exposed and cornered by formerly sympathetic pundits. pic.twitter.com/R2MPq7UgpY

— Jonathan Lis (@jonlis1) April 20, 2020

(you may have also seen Piers Morgan giving her hell a few days ago)

And this is a counter to the FT statistical exercise:

A thread on the measurement of excess mortality and uncounted COVID19 deaths. Key point: be careful inferring number of uncounted COVID19 deaths from a look at all-cause mortality data 1/n

— Stéphane Helleringer (@helleringer143) April 21, 2020

The NY Times has a stunning look at excess mortality from vital statistics in various countries and cities out today with quotes from outstanding demographers (I provided some tips) 6/n
https://t.co/xUFhC4EB44

— Stéphane Helleringer (@helleringer143) April 21, 2020

why the two triangular notches in the uk figures here? is it something as simple as bank-holidays?

Watching pmqs with Sir Forensic. Making some good points, but they were ones he shouldn’t have waited weeks to make. Plus his hair is too long.

Barry Gardiner zooming into pmqs from the bedroom, gwaaaaaaaan

nice "I don't need to be corrected, I was talking about the tests" bit

James Sunderland, a Conservative, asks Raab what are the ingredients that will take the country through this.

Raab says the critical ingredient is for the country to come together. He says people understand how important key workers are. We can and will rise to the challenge as one United Kingdom, he says.

inspiring stuff from the boy raab there

The response about the govt letting half the testing capacity go unused was good. Raab is so bad at this.

Can't really blame Starmer for the hair given the alternatives are a home buzz cut or a non socially distanced barber.

if starmer got a buzz cut his support among melts would be destroyed

For anyone watching, Jez in the house and on the order paper to ask Hatt Mancock a question imminently.

just put a match to Sir Kier's head, la flambe brylcreem would be a daring new look for the melts!

lots of ppl are cutting their own/their family's hair with scissors, starmer lacks conviction

it looks worse than a DIY scissor cut

i can't imagine him cutting butter so obv hair will be a big problem

Great feedback from the architect of austerity and a fan of Victor Orban, here https://t.co/lVSP5J9gVZ pic.twitter.com/m6tVBnVPfz

— Dawn Foster (@DawnHFoster) April 22, 2020

i would like to hear theresa may's take

Just glanced up at the telly in time to see calz's favourite Barry Sheerman ranting away from inside a glorified broom cupboard.

I reckon a cleaner found him lying about in the House of Commons and thought, "What'll I do with this thing, oh, I'll just stick it in here for now".

poor Barry will be having to live off his MP's salary during this lockdown, some very challenging times for a director of a lobbying company!

fuckin' get his ass barry

In the Commons Labour’s Barry Sheerman, appearing via Zoom, tells Hancock that the “management and leadership of this present crisis has been shambolic”. He says the UK has lagged behind Germany and that a death toll of around 800 people (the daily figure at certain points) is equivalent to two jumbo jets crashing.

I believe it is a shambles of leadership and management. I believe we are letting down NHS staff, and they have been let down.
He also claims that NHS whistleblowers have been leant on not to tell the truth about conditions in the NHS. He goes on:

Many of us do not believe [Hancock] is telling the truth to the people of this country.
Hancock says Sheerman had misjudged his tone, and missed what the government was doing. The prime goals were to flatten the curve, and to ensure the NHS was not overwhelmed. Both of those challenges had so far been met, he says.

And he says Sheerman is wrong to say whistleblowers have been silenced.

Scary number of the day

The updating mechanism that worked best was to use the daily reports of hospital deaths of those who tested positive for Covid-19 and scale them to the community with knowlege of the proportion of people who typically die in hospital (this has ranged between 46% and 48%)

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) April 22, 2020

So if you're sick enough to be admitted you're close to 50/50 dead.
Presumably if you've any underlying conditions it's a lot worse.

(that should have been on one of the covid threads I suppose)

Depends who they're admitting in the first place, I would imagine the majority have underlying conditions? There doesn't appear to be much data on the number of people who are dying at home.

Back to politics... the first adjectives used in BBC news to describe Keir Starmer's first PMQ: courteous and polite

Her Majesty's Opposition are indeed back.

"Depends who they're admitting in the first place, I would imagine the majority have underlying conditions?"

Yes, so I'm assuming those who are admitted but don't have those conditions are the people bringing the number under 50.

melt twitter is delighted with PMQs

Ridiculous really given they'd all made their minds up days in advance, and that he was only facing Dominic Raab.

Probably going to be harder to get away with the polite and courteous thing when there are hundreds of pricks in the chamber bellowing away.

The thing is, wasn't Jezza mostly courteous and polite? Even in the face of the braying gammon collective?

melt twitter is delighted with PMQs

Has Big Dunty started writing fanfic yet?

With Corbyn courteous and polite was feeble and ineffective, with Starmer it's the second coming.

Fairly certain he came on himself by the end of this thread

Already, after just a few minutes, there's been more scrutiny - in the practical sense of the word - of the govt position than we've seen from the leader of the opposition for five years. Starmer is actually listening to the answers and then asking questions of them.

— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) April 22, 2020

Stephen Kinnock *standing up in his own living room* to ask a question in parliament is Full Kit Wanker behaviour.

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) April 22, 2020

Lol what a dickhead

WE..lp

Welcome to the MPs who were appointed to the Women and Equalities Committee last night.

We will be announcing our future work over the next few weeks. pic.twitter.com/TEgXhxNbL6

— Women & Equalities Committee (@Commonswomequ) March 3, 2020

41,000 people dead and not a single one of them is Dunt

I'm sure the 8 million non-white people in the country will be delighted that Gibbo4Darlo was the diversity pick there xp.

Re Starmer's powerful, forensic, penetrating performance:

“yeah could you tweet something like “powerful and forensic performance by kier starmer in today’s PMQs”. like obviously not that word for word, put your own spin on it “ pic.twitter.com/pFQwaI6YCf

— jonathan nunn (@demarionunn) April 22, 2020

you would think one of them would have an ounce of shame no wait maybe you wouldn't

Sir Meltalot corrected Raab on some figures, zounds! he's like a human abacus!

Kim Johnson is black, she is just light skinned. I think a couple of members may be lgbt as well but yeah, looks terrible.

Not a dry seat in the lobby when Starmer’s at the dispatch box.

good to see ed davey looking statesmanlike in these challenging times

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/068c9af7c0dd2425685d66f93fefb6c88937acb8/144_142_3141_1885/master/3141.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=51b9824f1507f0c4c049e1264c529059

at least he's wearing trousers i guess

Can someone just take a minute to Photoshop the word 'SHOOT' onto that whiteboard please?