rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together and you notice ppl who want to damage his campaign are focusing on the senile one bc they don't think the corruption charges are going to resonate v well. ppl generally like biden / find him affable and authentic. ppl found hillary cold, guarded and so corruption charges really resonated when made against her.

the thing about smears is they have to work in the greater narrative. ppl will try to smear anyone with anything but only certain smears work and those are the ones that resonate both with a particular voterbase in a particular time and against a particular candidate who magnifies and reaffirms those charges.

Two words why Carter lost in 1980: Billy Beer.

MILLIONS OF AMERICANS HATE DONALD TRUMP WITH THE FURY OF A THOUSAND SUNS. Never let yourself forget that fact. Every time you think about the election, think about that first.

I think "Burisma" is pretty standard conflict of interests, no more or less corrupt than in any administration in which its satraps have kids wanting to make money on Daddy's name. I don't think anyone gives a shit outside TrumpWorld.

Counterpoint: this is the kind of standard issue corruption that everyone has dealt with (the boss's shithead son who's dumber than a box of rocks), innately hates and feeds into the basic cynicism most people have about 'career politicians.'

Trump's corruption (personal and familial) is a little more obscure to people because the scale is so different. They don't know anyone who sold a multi-billion dollar building because of their father-in-law (but they do remember that shithead son).

the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together

Of course they do. He was corrupt for much longer than he's been senile.

I'm not so sure the Burisma story is gonna be pushed as much as everyone assumes it will - for one, who cares when we're in the middle of a pandemic, for two, this is literally the thing Trump got impeached over, and for three, after 4 years of Ivanka and fucking Don Jr. in the public spotlight I'm not sure if the nepotism line of attack is gonna win over anyone

if the second wave scientists have warned us about happens in the fall, few beyond the loudmouths yelling outside Whitmer's office will give a good goddamn about Burisma.

could you say more about what's worrying you about this thread?

US Politics, April 2020 -- Where's the Vax Returns?

Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

oh, god, you want me to read those threads? i'm not sure i have the stomach for it, sorry alfred

i guess more i'm wondering why you feel the need to keep up with this one? because i think we have different approaches to politics, and i want to be respectful of those differences.

Actually, that's my point -- there's no difference between this thread and the "Joe Biden sucks" thread.

I'm not so sure the Burisma story is gonna be pushed as much as everyone assumes it will - for one, who cares when we're in the middle of a pandemic, for two, this is literally the thing Trump got impeached over, and for three, after 4 years of Ivanka and fucking Don Jr. in the public spotlight I'm not sure if the nepotism line of attack is gonna win over anyone

― frogbs, Tuesday, April 21, 2020 3:28 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

it worked for arcane matters of IT security (i.e., her emails)

Actually, that's my point -- there's no difference between this thread and the "Joe Biden sucks" thread.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

idk if i agree, although i can see why the difference might seem a bit arcane. there are all kinds of reasons trump might win and most of them are unrelated to the suckiness of joe biden... but all people ever seem to want to talk about is joe biden's qualifications or lack thereof as a candidate as if that's the only important consideration. people keep talking past each other, talking about different things. and neither of us, really, have the luxury of disengaging, of not caring, and that is painful.

email thing was so effective because there were millions of people in this country who were conditioned to believe Hillary was corrupt but couldn't quite articulate why outside of shouting "BENGHAZI" over and over

ultimately Trump had two big selling points for persuadable voters in 2020 - "at least the economy is doing well" and "yeah he's an incompetent racist dumbass but none of that really affects ME...", and now we're in a situation where millions are losing their jobs, 100,000 Americans will die, and the economy is cratering, and a lot of that can be traced back to Trump's incompetence. I just don't know who he *gains* in 2020.

― frogbs, Wednesday, April 22, 2020 2:34 AM (three hours ago)

I assume the panic is not over former Hillary Clinton voters switching to Trump, but Trump keeping a fervent base and other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden, and also the election not going ahead in even the normal shitty national US fashion.

i'd agree with sic here - the panic is more about who actually casts a vote in this election. i totally understand, given this, why my saying that i'm not planning on casting a vote in that particular race might be deeply concerning to a lot of people.

other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden

Your mistake is in assuming that the majority of Democratic voters will feel the need to hold their nose to vote for Joe Biden. America is not ILX. America is not Lefty Twitter. Joe Biden is a popular politician - much more popular than Donald fucking Trump, who, again, millions and millions of people actively hate.

hope you're right

I believe Trump will lose - on the merits. But as a counterpoint, millions and millions of people actively hated Nixon in 1972 and he won by a fucking landslide.

Nixon was always polling ahead of McGovern, though.

my only point was that the hatred of millions upon millions is not a sufficient guide to a presidential election outcome. I could also have cited the many millions who loathed FDR.

I’m not sure Bernie supporters are dispassionate on this question of whether Biden is liked or electable

i don't think the fact that people hate trump necessarily works against him. being a provocateur was his whole schtick.

i think what will kill him is the fact that our country is in ruins due in part to his dithering on coronavirus.

yeah, people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally.

his disapproval rating is only in the 50s

that may tick up over the next few months

"Biden is better liked than Trump" ppl have a poll to consider.

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-most-trust-fauci-cuomo-on-coronavirus-response-insider-poll-2020-3

(I'm not saying that statement is wrong for sure, but I'm skeptical.)

Lots of politicians who aren't trusted are elected time and again.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls

comparing a dude who is literally given 2 free hours of airtime every day on every news network against someone who can't even get a functioning livestream to work might make that poll a bit misleading

people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally

Vancouverian James is monetarially on, here.

For the MAGAnauts, the forces arrayed against you are a large part of the point and most of the motivation. As the opposing sentiment increases, so does the entrenchment.

Premise 1. Liberal elites and coastal snowflakes hate The Donald.

Premise 2. I hate liberal snowflakes and coastal elites.

Premise 3. My hatred of the aforementioned libtards is the main motivating factor in my worldview. (Way more than any active interest in capitalism or free market economics or anti-government sentiment.)

Premise 4. If they (libtards) love a thing, I must hate it. Conversely, if they hate a thing, I must perforce love it.

Premise 5. The more they hate a thing, I must love it more. The more they love a thing, then I must perforce develop yet more hate for that thing.

This pattern cannot be reasoned with, just outvoted.

it's interesting that a lot of polls that show Biden up big head-to-head also have relatively high approval ratings for Trump (45% or higher). His approval bump isn't changing voting intentions.

people hating him is fine if fine as long as enough love him. polarization isn't necessarily bad for you electorally

yeah it's like people have never heard of Obama

I’m not sure Bernie supporters are dispassionate on this question of whether Biden is liked or electable

― Mordy

seriously if this is what passes for "political discussion" why are we even still talking to each other

One of the main reasons people separate into different primary camps is their belief about the electability of the other options.

non-biden-voting bernie supporters seem statistically insignificant in comparison to the amount of suppressed democratic votes that would have existed in general, plus the increase in suppressed democratic votes caused by coronavirus deaths and/or fallout

One of the main reasons...

Hmm. I think this fluctuates quite a bit as a motivator from one election to the next.

I doubt there were a lot of Obama '08 voters or Bradley '00 or etc who thought they were less electable than Hillary or Gore.

The importance of electability to the voter who makes up their mind on the way to the polls may vary from election to election but for the people who 'have' a candidate, how often (barring the Marianne Williamson protest voter or w/e) is that not a major part of the calculation?

As you phrased it, a main concern for primary voters was the lack of electability of the other candidates, which concern became a major reason for eventually choosing the candidate one voted for. This elevates it to a position of equality with every positive reason for being drawn to one's chosen candidate. While this reasoning seemed to play a fairly prominent role for Democrats this year, I don't recall it being nearly as prominent in the majority of presidential primaries in my lifetime, at least for the party which was not running the incumbent.

While this reasoning seemed to play a fairly prominent role for Democrats this year, I don't recall it being nearly as prominent in the majority of presidential primaries in my lifetime, at least for the party which was not running the incumbent.

Because, ILX's tendency toward "they're all equally bad" bullshit aside, there had never been a candidate as glaringly, shit-on-your-chest awful as Donald Trump on the other side.

No, in 2004 the voters' ideas about the electability of respective candidates were a fairly prominent part of the vetting process that produced Kerry. Supposedly his war record and Bronze Star indemnified him against charges of being anti-military during an ongoing war. Didn't work out.

2004 was also the gay marriage wedge election, which sucked.

yes

Your mistake is in assuming that the majority of Democratic voters will feel the need to hold their nose to vote for Joe Biden.

Your mistake is in assuming that I was expressing anything about my own assumptions about what millions of people may or may not do in November, if given the chance, rather than my stating that I was making assumptions about the stresses that led silby to create a contained thread in which to vent, this week

Can we keep this and lock the Joe Bidden thread. The shitposting opportunities are higher here.

Incredible pic.twitter.com/tlDsHLQ7Ic

— Nadine Shah (@nadineshah) April 22, 2020

5 Reasons Pundits Will Overestimate Trump's Odds Of Winning In November

#2 and #3 don't seem like "reasons pundits will overestimate" so much as convincing reasons why his odds of winning are higher, and tellingly, the author doesn't even attempt to explain how these lead to overestimates (ffs, he even calls #3 a "non-superstitious reason"!)

Wonder covid will impact on the shape of the electorate. Might take polls-as-indicator out.

Triden is gonna win.

It is a strangely half-assed article, especially considering that he published this piece the same day:

Trump’s Coronavirus Approval Bounce May Be Gone

Early on in the coronavirus pandemic, Trump was getting narrowly positive reviews for his handling of the crisis, which in turn lifted his job-approval ratings somewhat, though not as much as one might expect when looking at the rallying effect benefiting other national leaders, as Matt Yglesias noted on March 31:

>>[E]ssentially all incumbent leaders appear to be benefiting from a coronavirus-related bump. Compared to the governors of hard-hit states or the presidents and prime ministers of hard-hit foreign countries, Trump’s bump is actually quite small, amounting to maybe 2 or 3 points. Compare that with foreign leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron or Germany’s Angela Merkel, who have seen double-digit increases in their approval ratings.

A Siena College poll released Monday showed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) enjoying a 20-point boost in his approval rating.

Since then, public assessments of Trump’s handling of the pandemic have steadily eroded. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages, his approval ratio on the coronavirus crisis turned negative on April 5, and now stands at 47/50. And accordingly, his overall job-approval rating has been inching downward in barely perceptible but regular ticks, and reached this point today:

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
On Super Tuesday (3/3), maybe the last normal-ish day in American politics before COVID became the only story, Trump's approval rating was 43.3 and his disapproval was 52.7. Now? 43.6% approve and 52.4% disapprove. So he's lost his small bounce.

He’s doing a bit better at RealClearPolitics, which doesn’t adjust polls for accuracy or partisan bias, and shows him at 46 percent, but the trend lines are similar.

So Trump’s back at, or near, the narrow band of approval ratings that has characterized nearly all of his presidency, and it places him close enough to reelection territory to keep his team upbeat, but not there yet. Perhaps the wild environment created by the coronavirus and the economic collapse it has generated make these trends largely insignificant. But as noted so many times before, voters tend to really like and really dislike this man in an extremely durable manner. He cannot afford big mistakes on COVID-19, but just muddling along while taking credit for good things and shifting blame for bad things is not going to get him a second term.