rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

The thread title says what it’s for, it’s for this, so it doesn’t go in other threads

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

Low numbers for Biden in both Trust and Don't Trust, so he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

its tough when every major news network gives a free 2 hour commercial to your opponent every single night

in the main, no one's listening to whatever Biden says about covid-19, because he's not in a position to affect anything about it. people know that he's mostly irrelevant on that subject. it doesn't help that what he does manage to say is neutral boilerplate, stuff like 'I'd take effective action' that means nothing at all. I'd bet most of those trust vs. don't trust responders wouldn't be able to cite anything he said; it's just the usual tribal identification.

We should get Joe some of the shit from Flowers for Algernon

he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

Also room to get worse. Seriously, I would be all over a GoFundMe to (1) buy that man a teleprompter, (2) pay a trusted advisor to keep him on script, and (3) get some of them Deepfake tech whizzes to mock up some coherent speeches using his generically likable face.

he's gonna win every goddamn state https://t.co/RggsWIJkDH

— Andros of the Embers (@allahliker) April 21, 2020

of course he is

pic.twitter.com/cU6gIdMgGi

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2020

i forgot how wildly popular the initial travel ban and the wall and border separations were, everyone loved all that shit, this guy's totally right.

did we really need a new thread just for disgruntled sanders people to talk up trump?

I'd really like to see Biden put out an ad collecting all the times Trump made it sound like he wanted to fuck his daughter.

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

He'll never do it xp

ukilxors can't even be trusted to predict the results of uk elections

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)

only if he literally kills me

(xp) Not sure many, if any, predicted Corbyn would win tbf.

i remember the optimism during his campaign certainly from this point (8 months out from the election)

How Optimistic Are You?

The optimism was always qualified. Not that it matters as to whether I'll copy and paste some fun tweets xp

uk ilxors weren't stupid for hoping and people who are despairing right now aren't stupid for despairing

you can come up with another word for 'believes that election results aren't likely to be correlated w/ polling data'.

young voters are undercounted because they don’t use landlines, i totally read that

every time Trump says "Sleepy Joe" there are a bunch of disgruntled Bernie supporters tweeting "holy FUCK he's gonna get 500 EVs" and it's super annoying

he is an unstoppable force, though also extremely stoppable by the guy who polled worse against him than joe biden

I try to convince myself that "trump is gonna win" as an emotional shield in case it happens, plus the idea of investing in "biden is gonna win" is fucking sad (admittedly "trump is gonna one-term" appeals).

OTOH, what I sometimes think about is a friend's dad who voted for trump. He's a middle-class white guy who is literally in the infrastructure business and actually bought the idea that trump being pres would help him. But he's also married to a South American immigrant, and while I don't know him personally I am reasonably sure there's no chance he'll vote for trump again. I imagine there's at least a few other people like that, and I can't see anyone switching to trump at this point—even as hyperbole, "he's gonna win every goddamn state" makes you look like a dumbass. Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

this

ultimately Trump had two big selling points for persuadable voters in 2020 - "at least the economy is doing well" and "yeah he's an incompetent racist dumbass but none of that really affects ME...", and now we're in a situation where millions are losing their jobs, 100,000 Americans will die, and the economy is cratering, and a lot of that can be traced back to Trump's incompetence. I just don't know who he *gains* in 2020.

like one thing I heard a lot in 2016 was "what's the worst that can happen, things already suck for us and the Presidency is mostly a show job" and well, now we know

can we lock this thread?

all true, but also

none of that really affects ME.

He could lose a few handfuls of voters out of sheer stupidity. I mean I haven't looked up the numbers or anything, but another thing to consider: I am a straight white man who normally isn't subject to trump's attacks...except I'm an immigrant (I was a baby, but it's not like I forgot)

can we lock this thread?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, April 21, 2020 9:38 AM (thirty-three seconds ago)

If we do I’m gonna have to post “Trump is gonna win” when I’m stressed out in other threads instead of this one which I made so I wouldn’t do that!!

ftr, I approve of this thread's existence! Give me a few weeks and I'll probably post something stressed out myself; I almost did after watching Biden on Desus & Mero

If we do I’m gonna have to post “Trump is gonna win” when I’m stressed out in other threads instead of this one which I made so I wouldn’t do that!!

― silby, Tuesday, April 21, 2020

I'd prefer that option; this is just one more thread to worry about.

I appreciate your concern for my acid reflux I guess!

By the way, we're long past the containment point and have moved on to the mitigation phase.

I'd prefer that option; this is just one more thread to worry about.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

could you say more about what's worrying you about this thread?

i'm not bothered by people who don't pay attention to the polls. i don't pay attention to the polls. honestly, few things drive me up the wall more than the constant horse race talk, the constant "what will the voters do", because how anybody else votes is, for the most part, completely outside my control. the plethora of "what ifs" and and game theory, i used to indulge in that, and it now comes across as an attempt to control what has been for quite a long time for quite a number of people an uncontrollable situation.

i'd rather people talk about their honest feelings than about how, not to pick on anyone, but how someone else's dad is going to vote. i'm not sure how to concern myself with that and stay sane. we've got some strong challenges among us, and i'd like to see us learn how to be kind to each other, and horse race talk goes nowhere towards accomplishing that.

By the way, we're long past the containment point and have moved on to the mitigation phase.

― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)

how do you know so much about silby's acid reflux

could you say more about what's worrying you about this thread?

US Politics, April 2020 -- Where's the Vax Returns?

Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

I’m in a pissy mood so my optimism is gone, to the point that I can’t helping noticing this thread assumes any kind of certifiable election come November. If we even manage to have an election with a grain of integrity, too few congress members have demonstrated their willingness to stand up for the results of an election that doesn’t come out their way.

I feel particularly helpless when I consider that a hostile foreign entity doesn’t even have to impact voter rolls or systems, they just have to boost the message that it’s plausible they have. Just the suggestion would cause enough chaos to destabilize us.

Things are going to get way worse before they get better.

trump is not going to win

Things are going to get way worse before they get better

I have a memory of a He-Man episode where he said it.

I only quote the greats

the whole Biden-Burisma-Hunter Biden thing imo is a GOP attempt to make the Bidens the new Clintons, because they were so successful demonizing the Clinton name among their base, and they think they did the same thing effectively with Obama, but that's not what happened there (that was simple racism). I don't think it's as effective with Joey B because he just doesn't have the charisma needed to inspire that kind of polarization

I think the Burisma stuff will stick because it is pretty transparent corruption and it doesn't matter that Trump is worse in every way, we know the rules don't apply to both sides equally.

Will it matter enough to influence the campaign? Who knows? Will a President Biden get hearings out the ass about it and do a lot of damage to his agenda? Fuuuuuuck yeah.

feel like if trump had a son that was addicted to crack, had an affair with his dead brother's wife, and had a job on the board of a Ukrainian gas company despite not being remotely qualified purely due to his father's clout the democrats would be trying to make hay with that also

good points

biden is a much worse candidate than Clinton and she lost. and trump has the benefit of incumbency. I would put a decent chunk of change on trump winning if the odds weren't so lousy

I think "Burisma" is pretty standard conflict of interests, no more or less corrupt than in any administration in which its satraps have kids wanting to make money on Daddy's name. I don't think anyone gives a shit outside TrumpWorld.

"Indeed, Mr. Frog-bis." "Please, it's Frog B.S."

"Mr. Frog-bis is my father"

"Mistrial declared until we can get the pronunciation clarified."

its supposed to be unpronouncable. you know like the thing Prince did