when Top Scientists in the UK were like 'we don't WANT to suppress it now, because it will just pop up again in the autumn' i never really understood it. for all the SEO bullshit speculation in that guy's medium article, he does get at this basic point: if it pops up again in the autumn that at least buys us time to get ventilators manufactured, establish new facilities, and even recruit/retrain NHS staff.
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:34 (four years ago) link
I can see us in a situation where, if the rate of infections and deaths slows, we are moving round our towns cities again relatively normally by the end of the summer, although maybe not between them. Even parts of Italy are easing lockdown a little now (although obviously not Lombardy etc) and how that plays out will be instructive here.
One problem is that a regional approach will likely turn out to be necessary but the UK doesn't have a strong or effective enough system of local or regional government for that to happen. In fact these have been systematically undermined and drained of resources since Thatcher. The exception is perhaps in larger metropolitan areas and people like Khan, Burnham etc appear to have been kept at arm's length by the government and kept away from key decisions and information that directly affects them.
International travel isn't coming back any time soon, that's one thing. With proper lockdown measures you can envisage a situation where the rate of infection has slowed hugely and most people with it have either recovered or died. But as soon as you start reopening borders then the infection will be right back in. And this is a government that needs no encouragement to close borders.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:35 (four years ago) link
There will surely be rolling lockdowns for the next year or more.
Things will be very slow in coming back, no normal here. The + 20% for Q3/4 really looks really fanciful if parts of the economy are shut and even then people won't be going out all the time lol.
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:41 (four years ago) link
That's the problem with the u-turn that never was. In the original plan you didn't worry about a second spike because we coped with the first one and had herd immunity etc. In the new plan you have to worry an awful lot about the second spike, and start preparing for it.
They seem to have mashed the two together in the worst way – no prep for a second spike, no management of the first one. They're firefighting as they go. Terrifying. xp
― stet, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:41 (four years ago) link
the UK doesn't have a strong or effective enough system of local or regional government for that to happen
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have separate parliaments. Not that the Welsh one amounts to much.
― The Corbynite Maneuver (Tom D.), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:44 (four years ago) link
it's almost as if it's a government of incompetent chancers whose only real interest is enriching their friends
― où sont les threads d'antan? (Noodle Vague), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:44 (four years ago) link
Borders will be shut both ways. No holidays to India or Spain for Brits, for a good year.
Whether they can afford one after a vaccine is found is another question as well.
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:45 (four years ago) link
There's a void in decision-making at the top of government right now as well, with Johnson and Cummings incapacitated and reputedly nearly everyone who worked in Downing Street has got it. Hancock is useless and Raab clearly isn't trusted to make any decisions of substance. I'm not surprised that nothing is being done, decision-making is clearly so centralised that it's a recipe for disaster.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:45 (four years ago) link
And that's assuming they don't make the wrong decisions in the end anyway, and lol at that assumption.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:46 (four years ago) link
There's likely also an ideological split between the Cabinet members more inclined to caution and the ones who were briefing to the press that schools should have re-opened already.
― ShariVari, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:48 (four years ago) link
Lol @ Tories even trying to re-start local government after those cuts.
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:50 (four years ago) link
It's interesting comparing Scotland – where most of this is devolved. They've been mostly in line with UK actions, and you'd expect them to go for political advantage where it was possible and safe to do so. The first real rattling has been over PPE, which the UK has seized control of.
― stet, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:51 (four years ago) link
and allegedly has been using that control to funnel ppe to england instead of sharing it with the rest of the uk
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:52 (four years ago) link
Lol Piers is just throwing New Zealand and Ireland at this.
How is this professional stalker doing a better job than the current leader of the opposition pic.twitter.com/t5oOtKrDZ4— Your Mum (@judeinlondon2) April 15, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:54 (four years ago) link
The weird thing is the Tories had the political capital -- after a landslide -- to manage it in an 'authoritarian' way. Shut things down, tell people etc. If we end up worse than Italy that's an open goal that Starmer is missing.
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 10:58 (four years ago) link
piers... o-o-otm? feels bad
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:00 (four years ago) link
"that's an open goal that Starmer is missing"
he makes Shane Long's finishing look forensic.
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:02 (four years ago) link
A report on the re-openings across Europe.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/world/europe/coronavirus-reopenings-europe.html
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:04 (four years ago) link
What can and can't re-open. A factory that relies as much or more on exports to areas where there is no demand will need further assistance or go under. Re-opening is one very small step.
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:06 (four years ago) link
Presumably Morgan has no issue with how the US had handled things or is so it's not Trump's fault.
― nashwan, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:15 (four years ago) link
Been thinking about how neither myself nor my wife might see our families at all for a year or more, fun times.
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:21 (four years ago) link
Piers Morgan does this (the opposite of a heel turn, I guess?) all the time, it allows him to present himself as Far And Balanced. Not that I'm against it, I'll take any scrutiny now whatever the source.
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:23 (four years ago) link
new zealand have only had 4 deaths?!
― megan thee macallan 18 year (||||||||), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:25 (four years ago) link
/Borders will be shut both ways. No holidays to India or Spain for Brits, for a good year./Been thinking about how neither myself nor my wife might see our families at all for a year or more, fun times.
― gyac, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:25 (four years ago) link
The rewards for moving to the UK just keep on coming!
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:31 (four years ago) link
come on immunity passports already
― stet, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:37 (four years ago) link
New Zealand has had 9 deaths and 1386 cases.
― nate woolls, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:37 (four years ago) link
9 deaths!!
― megan thee macallan 18 year (||||||||), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:52 (four years ago) link
really feel like that's pertinent information that more people should be aware of
― megan thee macallan 18 year (||||||||), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:53 (four years ago) link
extremely worrying stuff in this guardian article about the current situation in uk psychiatric wards. no ppe for a start but also no visits or leave and a complete halt on therapy and therapeutic activities. https://t.co/F1kO5RlOQo— Emily (@emily_0r) April 15, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:55 (four years ago) link
As far as I can remember all but one of the deaths in NZ are from an elderly care home in Christchurch.
― nate woolls, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 11:58 (four years ago) link
it's amazing what can be achieved when you learn from other countries mistakes rather than imprudently repeating them.
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:01 (four years ago) link
But...we had an empire!
― quartet for the endocrine (Matt #2), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:02 (four years ago) link
even the biggest mental health hospitals/facilities are not set up in a way which can cope with this, not sure what you can do really beyond use it as another argument against institutionalising people
― ogmor, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:09 (four years ago) link
Just checking the statistics on the NRScotland website now (as ONS only covers England and Wales).
For w/c Mar 30:Typical number of deaths for corresponding week, 2013-19: 1000-1100For 2020: 1741Where Covid-19 mentioned on cert: 282
So, in line with England and Wales, direct/indirect effect of C-19 on death statistics is 2-2.5x greater than the daily headline number we're seeing coming out of the hospital figures.
― Michael Jones, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:10 (four years ago) link
jesus I can't imagine the stress and fear you'd have to cope with if one of your kids or family were in one of these institutions right now.
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:11 (four years ago) link
New Zealand's line is that their strategy is elimination rather than mitigation
― Number None, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:14 (four years ago) link
good strategy imo
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:16 (four years ago) link
It's not often that I am happy when numbers escape.And active cases are now less than half of total cases!#Covid_19nz #COVID19nz pic.twitter.com/GV1IfZfEsI— Chris Knox (@vizowl) April 15, 2020
― Number None, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:16 (four years ago) link
NZ started testing people way before it registered its first case and was quarantining new arrivals very early on as well, whereas the UK was still not conducting proper health or temperature checks on new arrivals even when planes stopped flying. Yeah it's a small and remote country and isn't exactly renowned for its population density but it still appears to have been highly successful.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:23 (four years ago) link
UK MPs: IPSA awards them a potential extra £10k work-from-home allowance
New Zealand: They all take a 20% paycut.
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:35 (four years ago) link
Piers Morgan tho - wish he was onside all the time!
Maybe its good that he isn't so that when he is its more effective idk
― anvil, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:42 (four years ago) link
UK still isn't conducting any sort of border checks. You really would think they'd jump at the chance, this lot
― stet, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 12:59 (four years ago) link
Your first article as leader was paywalled for The Times, who share an owner with The Sun, who smeared the Hillsborough dead. The audacity. https://t.co/vpRj1pxxaB— Your Mum (@judeinlondon2) April 15, 2020
re: Piers the Stormer! It doesn't take a lot to be more of an impressive fist of an opposition leader than this wet lettuce tbf!
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:00 (four years ago) link
Can't get the staff. They'll need to import.
― nashwan, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:10 (four years ago) link
case in point
NEW: 6 charter flights from Romania to bring in 450 workers for British farms tomorrow - BBC WATO news reporting— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) April 15, 2020
― nashwan, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:28 (four years ago) link
what could possibly go wrong
― He is married to Brogmus, Linda. (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:30 (four years ago) link
How dare they come over here and take the vital jobs we have too much of a superiority complex to do!
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:31 (four years ago) link
govt now apparently saying they might not fund beds for rough sleepers who "do not have recourse to public funds" having previously told local govt to find temporary accommodation for everyone
― ogmor, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:35 (four years ago) link
Someone must have been losing sleep at the prospect of people not sleeping rough under their watch. B b but we don't usually help the homeless!
― calzino, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 13:40 (four years ago) link