love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

i’m sure nez from heavy stereo has some valuable insight to share tho

shed seven was a gulag reference

there's a perfectly "good" board just down there

vvvvv

I doubt someone who was asking "where is Jess Phillips in this shadow cabinet?" will turn around and write that intro a couple of days later but who knows really.

Anyway it does hit home that the aftermath of this will need to involve cookies for us. Tories will need to do a significant amount (far more than they would've wanted to a few weeks ago) to patch things up so they can keep the show going. It's a question of whether they will be able to, or what the repercussions of a severe shortfall would be.

xps to Tracer - bg...thank you for your service

maitlis was tweeting terf talking points a few months ago and was as fucking useless as everyone else during the election so ¯\(◉‿◉)/¯

— mark wood sexy kitten ultras (@iggigg) April 9, 2020

not clear why Martin Rossiter was tweeting this gif at Tim Shipman, but

@ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/hOU4GTJOYX

— Martin Rossiter (@MartinRossiter) March 29, 2020

god Twitter is a cesspit

It's important for someone to say these words. You'd just wish that someone was in the opposition.

Tories will need to do a significant amount (far more than they would've wanted to a few weeks ago) to patch things up so they can keep the show going. It's a question of whether they will be able to, or what the repercussions of a severe shortfall would be.

They will have to do an absolute shit ton, way more than they have already, but the chances of the nation joining hands and deciding that shop workers and delivery people are the real key workers and should be paid accordingly feels vanishingly small*. The government will have to make major changes to the welfare system because it will be unacceptable to the millions of middle class white collar workers who will be put out of work imminently if the existing furlough measures turn out to be inadequate. In general it's still better to keep people nominally in employment but if the lockdown maintains for six months or longer then that might just become unfeasible.

The only shortfall would occur if the government decides to stop spending, or if the sheer scale of spending required exceeds the market for gilts and tbh where else is that investor cash going to go at the moment?

*What does feel more likely and perhaps inevitable is big class action settlements for the families of people who have died because they've been forced to keep going into work but that's not going to be any help to the poor bastards themselves.

even the fucking Large Hadron Collider couldn't detect the presence of Starmer

actually I’ll think you’ll find the collider just accelerates and collides particles, it’s the ATLAS, ALICE, LHCb and CMS systems that do the detecting

It's important for someone to say these words. You'd just wish that someone was in the opposition.

xp
well done, did Tim Burgess tell you that!

simon from the longpigs iirc

I think for me the question is not whether they will stop spending but on what they will spend the cash available on. Tories clearly don't want to restructure the economy but if the housing market takes a permanent dive what then?

So yes welfare changes, for one, but a significant number of white collar workers will be 'downgraded' in a global recession that may last for much of this parliament.

It's one of the reasons I think you're right about the hit the government will take from this. It's less about their handling of the crisis and more about the transition OUT of the crisis, the disgruntlement and resentment that will build between the end of the lockdown and the point at which people really feel like their lives are approaching normality again. That period could go on for years.

Typically, the letter says, DWP would expect 55,000 calls in a week.

The letter reveals that between 23-27 March inclusive approximately *1.8 million* calls were made to the Universal Credit Helpline.

On 30 March they received 2.2 million calls.

On 31 March 1.8 million calls.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 8, 2020

I'd imagine for many getting exposed to Universal Credit recently - it might be their first time and it will likely be a bit of an eyeopener for them. I bet if YouGov did a "is Universal Credit a fair and functional element of the UK welfare state y/n?" poll the answers would be a bit more informed and in the negative than usual. It was only designed to treat the lower orders like shit, not everyone else as well!

In general it's still better to keep people nominally in employment but if the lockdown maintains for six months or longer then that might just become unfeasible.

Do you mean economically or just "this looks bad"?

lol, time to both-sides the fuck out of this

A majority of Britons are in favour of a government of national unity being formed for the duration of the coronavirus crisis, a new poll from YouGov suggests.

In a survey, 63% of 1,609 people indicated they would be in support of representatives from all of the main political parties being brought into the fold.

A total of 31% said they would be strongly support such a move, whilst only 17% stated that they would be opposed.

Of those polled who voted for the Conservatives at the general election last year, 54% said that they would back plans to govern in unison during the crisis.

Meanwhile, 76% of Labour voters outlined that they would support such a move, with a majority of Liberal Democrat voters polled (84%) also giving their backing.

xps, idk if the government can put any kind of time-limit of assistance to companies, tbh. Even if this goes on for eighteen months, you need a functional economy at the end of it. Forcing huge numbers of businesses into bankruptcy, or effectively forcing them to lay off staff and re-recruit, is likely a worse outcome than racking up decades of national debt. Whether that can be done for all businesses, or whether there'd have to be some kind of vetting on commercial viability post-lockdown, is a huge question, though.

Do you mean economically or just "this looks bad"?

Economically. If everyone is out of work and vast numbers of employers have collapsed then it makes it much more difficult for the country to rebound. If people can just return to work at the end of their furlough period then it's easier. Its the difference between a sharp recession and a long depression.

Some good proximity to power correlation there.

I'm definitely missing something, Matt - if furlough is better for business (and better for the Tories wrt keeping nice white-collar people away from welfare) and if they can keep printing money (because what are the alternatives) then why would it become economically unfeasable?

It's mostly there in SV's post right above mine.

idk if the government can put any kind of time-limit of assistance to companies, tbh. Even if this goes on for eighteen months, you need a functional economy at the end of it. Forcing huge numbers of businesses into bankruptcy, or effectively forcing them to lay off staff and re-recruit, is likely a worse outcome than racking up decades of national debt. Whether that can be done for all businesses, or whether there'd have to be some kind of vetting on commercial viability post-lockdown, is a huge question, though.

Yeah they will have to keep the money going, there's going to be ballooning national debt whatever happens but if everything collapses there's going to be no tax revenue to pay it off. Also if the government is seen to be switching off life support for employers then it really will impact upon them at the ballot box, because people aren't going to forget that shit.

Tell you what, though.

Remember Dominic Cummings?

You'll not be seeing him again.

Huh, I took his post as arguing with yours: "In general it's still better to keep people nominally in employment but if the lockdown maintains for six months or longer then that might just become unfeasible."

A lot of 'rules' will be written then replaced by other ones.

ballooning national debt whatever happen

BoE has switched to direct finance for covid costs rather than selling gilts as of this morning, so afaict we're going to (theoretically) devalue the pound rather than increase the debt.

Pity we already had that Brexit devaluation, like.

Tell you what, though.

Remember Dominic Cummings?

You'll not be seeing him again.

The Government's still claiming that they'll get the necessary concessions from the EU by June or walk away, so the Brexit dividend should start to kick in for the Christmas Rush!

Andrew - the market for gilts is massive and probably wouldn't be exhausted within the duration of the crisis but if the govt really needs to keep pumping vast amounts of money in for ages then it might exceed the level of investor demand and find it difficult to continue to raise money past a certain point.

No one really knows where that line is (and it's nowhere near where Cameron and Osborne claimed it was) but exceeding it is where it might become unfeasible. This is massive area of debate though and in any case I wasn't aware of the development in Stet's post, which makes it academic really.

gilts are cops

BAME & people on the left can say something over and over again--that's identity politics & 'unrealistic' 'extremism'. Once it's said in posh accents on the BBC, it's true.

— Priyamvada Gopal (@PriyamvadaGopal) April 9, 2020

And, my God, you don't half notice the sheer amount of posh voices the more you watch television news and current affaurs.

It's probably a sign of getting old, but the number of fresh-faced twentysomething 'media commentators' with public school accents this country churns out is staggering.

not watched or listened to a single news broadcast since 11/12/2019 😬. emily maitlis can go fuck herself though

I've been trying to avoid the news since then too, but occasionally hate watch.

You'll have missed the number of vaguely famous singer types that are making "appropriate" song covers, for the download, for the NHS or whatever. From "Somewhere over the rainbow" to "We'll meet again" …..

waiting on the Colonel Abrams reissue tbh

Update from no10:

– The PM had a good night and continues to improve in ICU. He’s in good spirits. Still getting standard oxygen treatment.

– Is Boris a smoker? PM's official spox says "I wouldn’t know the answer but I certainly haven’t" seen the PM with a cigarette.

— lukemcgee (@lukemcgee) April 9, 2020

Doc Scott 'NHS' for Xmas #1

Bound 4 da Reload

a more innocent time

The track features a sample from the theme tune to the BBC medical drama Casualty. The duo had not initially gone the correct route to clear the rights to use the Casualty theme, instead calling the BBC receptionist to tell them they were sampling it.

Oi, there's that Covid-19
Oi, there's that Covid-19
Uh-oh, there's that Covid-19
Uh-oh, there's that Covid-19

etc etc

sickening

A doctor who warned the prime minister that health workers urgently needed more PPE has died after being diagnosed with Covid-19.

Abdul Mabud Chowdhury, 53, died after 15 days in hospital.

Let's not politicize the death of this doctor killed by the failure of politicians

FINALLY

https://i.redd.it/he3zs3rysor41.png

Too soon

Let's not politicize the death of this doctor killed by the failure of politicians