love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

"I don't know why we're even looking at approval ratings, there's nearly five years left to run until an election, in all probability."

It's interesting to see what might happen to that figure as the pandemic and lockdown go on, especially at the 65+ breakdown.

Jesus Christ

76,628! I've just been sent this from someone trying to apply for universal credit UC. pic.twitter.com/DbpivvrpTv

— (((Dawn Butler))) (@DawnButlerBrent) March 24, 2020

people wise that's more than the sold-out capacity at old trafford

The wage support application site for businesses is almost certainly going to crash when it's up and running as well.

Universal Credit was already a well documented nightmare for people who are not very online, don't have a passport etc. So many staff have been cut by the DWP in the last decade it's hardly surprising its practically dysfunctional during such high demand. Whole fucking carbuncle needs burning to the ground, obv with IDS at the top of the bonfire.

They're turning the Excel Centre into a temporary hospital, which anyone who has been there will tell you is a nightmarish prospect.

why'd they shut down the fucken emirates cable car then, i'll have to get there from woolwich arsenal dlr like a normal person ffs

The idea of a gigantic exhibition shed filled with long lines of beds containing Covid sufferers is almost uniquely horrifying to me.

I want to die going in there in the best of times; to actually die in there ...

Likely to be something along the lines of this:

Serbia set up a field hospital with 3000 beds for the people that get tested positive for corona. Mass testing will start very soon on everyone. Currently we have 3 deaths, but I'm glad they reacted way faster than a lot of the other countries did pic.twitter.com/5zO4aLFxEq

— Aleksandar Krstic (@BeastyqtSC2) March 24, 2020

it's a good move to set something up, but god, how bleak to be in there, no privacy, no family visits, no space for personal belongings, constant dry coughing from all around at all times, people moaning and being sick and dying...

er, good luck, everyone

(this post brought to you from Pointing Out The Very Obvious posting services, 2020)

Serbian field hospital looks like the 2012 Olympics opening ceremony minus the people

This fucking shitshow of a government

But on Tuesday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said those who cannot work from home should go to work "to keep the country running".

New FT piece says:

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

‘theoretical epidemiology’ u say

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

huge if true, obv, but it’s not going to stop the nhs being overwhelmed in the short term is it

Yeah, even “just” 1 in a thousand needing hospital treatment is still 67k in a really short space of time.

how does this square with like whole families getting ill one after another? just a statistical outlier in the hundreds of millions who’ve been infected?

but then the vo’ study was showing something not dissimilar, right? bad time to be an armchair epidemiologist, really

Anything that leads to widespread and reliable antibody testing is alright with me.

well, yeah

Italian death toll went up again to 743 in the last 24 hours.

fuckin’ hell

:(

oh I saw an Oxford research group recruiting people with blood assay experience, but I didn't realise it was for a new research angle rather than just keeping up with existing diagnosis needs and getting some measurements for research along the way - interesting. I don't really dare to hope mass immunity already exists tbh, but very glad research is happening and very glad of anything which leads to more testing

and yes, :( re Italian death toll

seems hard to reconcile these two things, "millions of people may already have had it without knowing" and "hundreds of people are still dying of it in a country which is likely a fortnight ahead of us infection-wise"

seems hard to reconcile these two things, "millions of people may already have had it without knowing" and "hundreds of people are still dying of it in a country which is likely a fortnight ahead of us infection-wise"

This is why I'd rather not put too much stock in these statistical models, encouraging though they may be.

A housing crisis underway today. Despite @mhclg advice below, Travel Lodge is closing hotels today, (when had said Thursday), throwing out the hundreds of homeless families put there for emergency accommodation by councils. Notes under doors earlier today. pic.twitter.com/EzkpMyR7Mv

— Nearly Legal (@nearlylegal) March 24, 2020

it's all good, all be forgotten, businesses gonna business

I'd like "widespread and reliable antibody testing" but Tories have been going on about everyone getting their antibody test and going back to work and I think we need to be really sure of the "reliable" part tbh

I mean, if I was told tomorrow I'd already had it (v v unlikely, but perhaps not 100% impossible) then I'd find that interesting and reassuring for my own personal prospects, of course - but I'd want to be very, very sure I couldn't possibly be contagious (still, or likely ever again) before I went to visit my vulnerable self-isolating mother, and should we really treat going to work etc with that much less caution?

x(x)p oh dear

how does this square with like whole families getting ill one after another? just a statistical outlier in the hundreds of millions who’ve been infected?

― a struggle to make meat-snacking fit (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 24 March 2020 18:36 (forty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Viral load? whole families living in close proximity means increased exposure and more serious infection. Getting exposed in passing from idk a door handle could lead to minor or asymptomatic infection.

One of the 18 patients didn’t develop symptoms, yet the viral load was similar to that of the symptomatic patients, the researchers said, “which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/one-third-of-coronavirus-cases-may-show-no-symptom-scmp-reports

Guardian reporting that 21 people died in a single London Hospital Trust in the last 24 hours - Northwick Park, which announced it had run out of critical care beds last week

Sir Quiff's almost unreadably calm and meaningless tweets explained, then? https://t.co/6txwWP13dJ

— Owen Hatherley (@owenhatherley) March 24, 2020

Soldout Boy Tell 'Em

Christ that reminds me I still need to send off my ballot vote for not this guy

if he passes the fit-for GoNU test that is definitive proof he's a tory in disguise cunt.

oh jesus it's just hit what the Excel Centre is. I went to a NAS event there 10 years ago. Fucking grim.

I’d be all in on a gnu if I didn’t think he’d be a clegg “moderating influence” as opposed to someone actually challenging their bullshit

I don't know why a government with a large majority would consent to a GNU except as a tacit admission that some of their ministers just aren't up to it.

so they can spread the blame after the complete disaster this is going to be.

cute way of sharing future blame maybe

lol calz beat me to the cynicism

The Tories: Hey Kier could you please come and stand in front of this hand grenade whilst I run away after pulling the pin
Starmer: yes this is leadership https://t.co/hZTuRB27E1

— Loki (@Lokinash06) March 24, 2020

Although tbf I don't think it would be harsh to say there is quite a dearth of brains and talent in this cabinet, some of the tory moderates like Gauke for example who weren't brexity enough probably have more in common with Starmer but there isn't really a path to bring them back maybe?

if the last 12 months have taught us anything (narrators voice: they didn't teach them anything) it's that Tory moderates and their kin who wound up in the wrong party by mistake aren't really the best at working together to moderate the worst excesses of full-blown Tories

oh christ imagine Starmer trying to moderate the Tories lol!

hard to imagine him moderating a bingo night tbh

This is a fucking low:

Hi everyone, just wanted to share my thoughts given I'm currently living in Italy, the epicentre of the virus.

— Ashley Young (@youngy18) March 24, 2020

People are waiting for hours on the #UniversalCredit helpline or placed up to 78,000th in an online queue.

Cuts of nearly 50,000 staff from the DWP since 2010 have created a failing system even before this crisis.

People need financial security if they're expected to stay home.

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) March 24, 2020

just thinking about how Corbyn and McD would slate Universal Credit on a daily basis in quite plain language and remembering how Starmer once called it "deeply flawed" and then called for it to be scrapped once, in the heat of a Labour leadership election. Such a huge volume of extra people getting exposed to its deliberate dysfunctional design flaws at the same time was probably never part of the plan.