Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Whoopsie!

Goldman Sachs warns data point to a historic and frankly apocalyptic surge in unemployment insurance claims, from current 281,000 to 2,250,000 in next week’s report. Yes you read that right. pic.twitter.com/KX7oDfu8fe

— Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 20, 2020

Mnuchin told lawmakers that unemployment could reach 20 percent this year.

seems notable

jfc this year

had an unsettling moment with my partner earlier tonight where she was like "is this going to get as bad as the great depression?" and i was like "..." ooof. at least the great depression had the new deal.

well.. eventually!

If only we had a presidential candidate like FDR. Oh wait

everyone w/ the capability is now a delivery driver of some kind, on the fed's dime ~ make it so

One thing happening with unemployment is a whole lot of layoffs that will be temporary as long as the current state of affairs doesn't go on too] long. Places like hotels are laying off all their staff to get them on unemployment, and some number of those people will probably be able to go back to their jobs in the near-ish future. Probably. So as bad as the numbers are going to be, the unemployment rate could shoot way up and then fall to half or less of that in relatively short order.

All depending on how things go, obviously.

yeah, it's hard to tell at this point. underemployment claims will be included there, for people who still have jobs but can't go to work, and some states (Virginia being one) are allowing people to file unemployment claims if they have jobs and were scheduled for hours but couldn't report due to being quarantined due to being sick.

however I do think it is pretty clear that the unemployment rate will definitely increase even after the situation is dealt with. there are definitely jobs that are eliminated that aren't returning. not to mention that if this situation drags on like 6 or more months, it won't really matter how 'permanent' the numbers are. nobody will be able to pay bills.

my job's safe at the moment but the thought I just had is ...once they shelter in place in every state that we have an office, I'll only be able to train people who are taking calls from home. we can't completely shutter as we handle people's benefits and they're going to need to call, but I could see them using less of us.

My job is "safe", my company can continue our work for the most part. But if we start losing clients, I could easily imagine myself floating to the top of the list for layoffs. Not sure if it makes sense to start applying to other jobs just in case or what. I doubt Tina of hiring is really happening.

I dunno, I think Tina got it goin on, myself.

she's simply the best

Crazy that the market seems to be ignoring the massive wave of unemployment that's about to hit

who needs a stock when a stock can be worthless

they are trying do hard to make the dow stay above 20k. I should go clean the house.

Congressional Republicans have forced their way onto the emergency subsidies bandwagon and are expected to provide industry support in addition to (any) payouts to households. The traditional investor class should come through without difficulties.

I'm doing rolling spring cleaning in between work tasks. Yesterday I took down and washed the curtains, and have started washing winter clothes in anticipation of putting them in storage.

I usually do all the main cleaning on Fridays so we have a nice clean house on the weekend, but it's been so dusty here and with the virus I've done more laundry in the middle of the week.

My wife has been on vacation all week because originally we were going to be traveling, and she's channeled her anxiety into an amazing amount of home improvement. I've helped out too, but I've also been working all week covering our local COVID developments. Anyway, she's so far regrouted the bathtub and kitchen sink, repainted the window in the bathroom, bought and hung a bunch of new plants, and yesterday we cleaned out the gutters. Today it's window-cleaning, I think.

Also we've been baking -- bread, biscuits, homemade pizza dough.

my wife want to deep clean this weekend but I can't find bleach anywhere :(

at some point they will need to come up with new tax law and/or make decisions re the tax consequences / implications of some of these things

oh yeah, I still have plenty of work and haven't had to lay myself off yet

I am sorry that I came off aggro. Not really my intent

this is the maxim I have always lived by:

Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered.

this book changed my life , for one example
here is a book that changed my life

https://www.amazon.com/Mind-Trader-Alpesh-Patel/dp/0273630067

https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393358380/ref=sr_1_1?crid=17KM7PYK11QC2&dchild=1&keywords=a+random+walk+down+wall+street&qid=1584769957&sprefix=a+random%2Caps%2C177&sr=8-1

my wife want to deep clean this weekend but I can't find bleach anywhere :(

At Rodman's (NW DC) yesterday they had bleach on display behind the pharmacy counter. (I guess to limit purchases?) I was looking for a thermometer, but they (and CVS) were sold out.

soapy water apparently gets the job done
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/clean-home-coronavirus.html

how low is this gonna go??

lol I just looked and briefly thought the Dow was at 800.

hey I don't know shit about economics and investing, but could they just like....suspend can all trading for a month or two?

*markets fall another 5% on rumors that rumors could be suspended for a month or two*

for posterity

https://i.imgur.com/H1mkN3m.png

where's raccoon i wanna know when i should buy

can you imagine the panic if people couldn't get their money out of the market. I kind of thought trump would try it but not for that long.

that doesn't really do anything except create more uncertainty and a bigger crash when you reopen it

I feel like one thing they could do, is waive the early distribution penalty for people taking money out of retirement plans because they need the money to live on.

They should get rid of it entirely forever.

I just hope the IRS would allow for a special withdrawal just for this purpose just like they did for other disasters.

My company follows Safe Harbor so since I'm 59 1/2, I can't take anything out. I don't want to but I'd like to know if I even can!

Eh, I actually agree with the penalty in theory -- like, people are getting a tax break on putting the money into a retirement plan because "saving for retirement is good" -- the penalty is there to reinforce that good and the fact it is saved for retirement as opposed to tax avoidance. ... I do think that expanding the exceptions to the penalty for "otherwise I would be starving / homeless etc" is needed.

Honestly, I wish they would decide on the stimulus package already, so that I can get around to explaining how it works to my clients and friends and then helping them understand what they need to do / not do.

Otm

i agree with the penalty in theory too but in practice it's not great. And yeah there do need to be more exceptions put into place.

the entire thing should be overhauled. it's going to be a completely new age.

401k's are dumb reason #1,872

someone on fb suggested they treat economic stimulus payments the way they do the APTC (the Obamacare subsidies that sometimes end up having to be repaid if you end up making too much money) , and I told that person, that is a really bad model. It's one thing to give someone an option for a subsidy and caution them, "you might end up having to pay this back" -- it's another thing to say, "here have some free money!" and then, "you might have to pay it back next year, depending on ... we'll figure it out." ... like, yeah, that's gonna make people feel less financially anxious.

just wandering around mumbling "stonks" and "means testing" while looking grumpy

start muttering:

Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered.
Dance like nobody's watching.

mh my new mantra is "haha money printer go brrrrrrr"

grim reapah
short sellah
they betta have my money when I come to colleck
brbrbrbrb

lol beat me to it

I do appreciate the money printer memes

Capitalism https://t.co/2b7CcN2RfV

— August J. Pollak (@AugustJPollak) March 23, 2020