Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

I am US so I would've done adr ticker.

Really sucked I had 10 grand in LEH stock that Dick Fuld a.k.a Bontrader5759 which was his Yahoo handle .... screwed me

oh yeah you were one of those. I never touched LEH.

I made a shit-ton off LEH when I bought it during the Asian Contasion of 1997 ... that's not the point ... i bought that falling knife like a Mofo
point is I ended up later in life working for a subsidiary of LEH, where we were paid in stock

I was in school in 1997. But yeah, I am not whatever SA was describing above about his in laws. It's a function to make money.

I totally thought rich dad, poor dad was a weird saying that I didn't know.

Where are you that you have been able to avoid ads for RDPD seminars and spam? I assumed, based on the seminar advertising, that it was on the level of those "buy real estate with no money down!" hucksters.

I know who Suze Orman is...and that is probably it. I think I have just filtered out most self help/personal finance/televangelist/wellness types of gurus. I've never had any interest in that.

I know there was a popular asian dude that did finance seminars. I didn't think it was this guy though?

I'm sorry but I just have to reiterate this:

"Everything about this was completely predictable. Price to Earnings ratios used to be a sane level of 4-5 ,, something like that ... until the 90s when the Tech revolution happened. Productivity increased and CEOs got high on the supply of multiples
It's not natural. It was never natural for these multiples to persist. So here we are. Price discovery."

It is as simple as that.

my wife and i had a baby on march 12 (just as tom hanks was sharing his diagnosis), so it's been a ride, but i'm just here to share this:

Damn. JP Morgan: "We are slashing our forecast for real annualized GDP growth in Q1 to -4.0%, followed by an even weaker -14.0% in Q2." Has that ever happened before?

— Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 18, 2020

i'm gonna point out another predictable event: there is going to be another recession, after this one. a big one. also, i'm going to get sick and die at some point.

the trick is to know when it actually happens

CAEK: CONGRATS! :D :D :D

congrats caek! I hope you named the baby JP Morgan!

were there pics somewhere?

Jeedeep P. Caek

(congratulations!!)

Yes! a new caek baby is a cosmic event! Even in good times the first few months are stressful, so here's hoping you cope fairly smoothly as you all adjust to the Era of Baby.

We lived in SF until a couple years ago (no way to buy a house there), so now we are just at the beginning of a 30 year mortgage. Some friends that bought younger have much less than that left.

not to be creepy, but I wonder if we know each other ... anyway ... re the synth example -- it's funny because a friend of mine sells vintage synths for a business and it is not impossible that said friend also has a trust fund that enables him to have such a business. However, before focusing on synths he did a lot of selling stuff on ebay, so it isn't like a whimsical business idea by some dumb rich kid.

I tend to talk about money with friends a lot because of what I do for a living. While I'm not as die-hard anti-capitalist as a lot of my friends, I do think about things a lot in marxist / anarchist theoretical terms. I am definitely an outlier when it comes to my profession, to be sure.

xpost adding to all this love of caekness, I sez.

Yeah, that's great!

I just learned the other month that JP Morgan's uncle James Lord Pierpont wrote "Jingle Bells."

Any parents of newborns, btw, will quickly grow accustomed to the shitbin.

I don’t see why it should be a life goal of someone to leave $10k to a 40-year-old granddaughter.

speaking as a granddaughter that got $10k when my grandmother died (I was 35 not 40 tho), it wasn't my grandmother's life goal to leave me that money, or leave larger sums to my mom and her sisters. My grandmother was actually a very live life to the fullest type, and she happened to have very good timing when it came to real estate and, uh, dying. That $10k came at a time when I had just split with my long-term partner and my household expenses doubled and I was an emotional wreck.

But, I think of inheritances as not one monolithic thing -- kinda like what Yerac was saying upthread -- there are people that leave $10k to each grandchild, and there are people that leave millions in tax-free wealth to their children and grandchildren, as in, their offspring will be able to live lives of luxury and not have to work.

My family has a history of mental health issues -- not everyone, but there's at least one every generation -- and both my mom's family and my dad's family believe that it's important for those who can to support those who can't. I have an aunt, an uncle, and a cousin who have serious mental health problems, and if it weren't for inheritance and other family support, they would probably be homeless or dead. It's what breaks my heart when I see friends and other people in my community who don't have that family support ...

I just learned the other month that JP Morgan's uncle James Lord Pierpont wrote "Jingle Bells."

no wonder it's basically the coke anthem of the christmas music canon

There is a situation of generational wealth transfer that is not sustainable. That's why Bernie is politically tenable. That's why I short this ridiculous market. The pitchforks are coming. Whether it is right or left. I mean we are already there basically

While I understand what you're saying and what you base it on, your challopy way of making ex cathedra statements makes them less than wholly persuasive.

tanuki?

I think about this study a lot, because millennials are pretty much underwater already and I suspect the next generation is going to have it even worse without a major revolution

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-depressing-chart-shows-the-jaw-dropping-wealth-gap-between-millennials-and-boomers-2019-12-04

well, Aimless, I suppose some would say I have adopted your confident tactics.
This market is a joke and it has been a joke since 9/11 .... goosed by liquidity and then Trump with his tax cut give me a break. Buybacks to pay him back. Well it is coming home to roost now. Realistic P/E multiples

one issue right now is that any baby boomer generational wealth, with the exception of the top economic class, is going to be wiped out by medical costs and assisted living facility payments

i.e. the things that have grown in cost much faster, and will have much larger demand than we have supply

I even remember things being less expensive overall when I was in my mid-20s. when I made 25k a year out of college, that isn't exactly baller-level money, but I was able to amass a decent savings and afford things. friends were paying $500 or less a month in rent.

never shoulda given up the three bedroom condo I was renting for $950. coulda moved my parents into it and given them the master bedroom

it's also a factor of people living longer. Most wealth transfer doesn't happen until after death. Delay death, delay wealth transfer. Not saying that's the only reason -- the immense inflation in educational costs and the trend towards loans vs. scholarships to pay for those costs is another major factor in millennial financial woes. While a lot of my friends rely on academia to pay the bills, I sincerely believe that higher education economics is a bubble, much like a lot of tech startups ... and I wonder if the distance learning that has been ramped up with coronavirus is going to cause a crash/re-evaluation of that industry.

Demographics are gonna crash higher ed soon anyway. Millennials are aging out of college age and there’s fewer zoomers to replace them, meanwhile millennials are gonna have fewer kids later than their boomer parents did.

idk -- it didn't happen when Gen X replaced the Boomers -- speaking as someone born in the year when the fewest babbies were born in recent memory

well, Aimless, I suppose some would say I have adopted your confident tactics.

so, which perma-banned ilxor, returned under a new name, are you?

the end of higher Ed is an issue i take very seruiously , I don;t know if you guys listen to Eric Weinstein's podcast -- because he is alt-right adjacent and I do in fact have a problem with that -- but he hammers this point it is a huge bubble. A huge bubble.

i don't listen to podcasts; i do know that seriously only has one "u" in it

amazon's still unrealistic P/E must be very painful for its investors, knowing that realistic P/E (defined as 4-5x i'm told) is on the way. there are listed companies with no P/E at all! surely none of those will be successful. somebody please let their investors know!

yeah yeah yeah i mistyped it
you should listen to dude. made more bearish than i already was to begin with
you could have retired

for someone new to ilx, you are being super aggro and confident, as if you have been posting here before such that we should be already aware of your expertise?

lol who is this

Ukrainian hemiola

Raccoon

wild guess that it's a white guy.

JUST KIDDING

A huge bubble.

afaics, it's the little boutique colleges that will die off. as for big universities, their main risk would be overbuilding and overcapacity, but I'm not sure that the big institutions overleveraged themselves in the process of overbuilding, because the major part of the debt overhang was assumed by the students or covered by begging from alumni. I presume any reduction in demand there can be absorbed by shedding all those non-tenured staff like hot potatoes. But I don't study their economics, so this is mostly guesswork on my part.

if they ever get it together and do a free, intensive physicians asst. program. I am on that. They need so many.

The American economy is poised for the worst quarterly contraction ever, with a sudden slowdown in economic activity that is more akin to what happened in wartime Europe than during previous American slowdowns like the financial crisis more than a decade ago or even the Great Depression.

had this mind as the market bounced up by 10% yesterday. the disconnection between the reality and the "investor optimism on legislation being passed" is mindboggling

NYSE starting fully electronic trading (closing floor) on Monday.

Look, this market needed to take it's haircut for "irrational exuberance" in my homey Greenspan's terms
Greenspan was probably short and god bless him