Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Holy shit! That presser tanked the fuck out of the market

I don't understand why. Trump rates his performance a 10.

Yerac: you seem to know a lot about this. Is there a floor here?

Yerac, do you trade using an online brokerage or do you have a "guy"?

dow is now negative during trump's term

No, I have always used online brokerages. Floor?

Realistic bottoming-out point...I mean, I guess nobody knows.

well, since the DJI and others are indices of stocks that are seen as relevant to the market, a big signal would be certain companies getting bumped out of the index

Oh, I thought you meant trading floor.

I mean, I don't. Everyone is looking at the dow but I rarely trade anything in that index. And a lot of it is personal. People have different timelines of how long you hold things. Trade the swings or volatility intraday or overnight or if you are trying to just accumulate for longterm (one month one year, retirement) or things with dividends. I just know the general market still has a long way it can go down.

Thanks. Can I ask which you prefer?

I don't believe investment advisers, especially ours, have any fucking clue what they are doing, but have played the game due to lack of detailed knowledge and unwillingness to make the leap. I was ready to put money in an inverse ETF two weeks ago and lost my nerve when speaking to my guy. Might be time to get rid of my guy.

inverse etfs/etns (esp leveraged) are very very risky. I think a lot of brokerages are making you sign something now to get access to trade them. It's a lot of risk. Like look at what the gold miners and jr miners did in the last 2 weeks. JNUG/NUGT and DUST/JDST. It can wipe you out quickly.

Brokerage I prefer?

How long til there are runs on banks?

your money is fdic insured uo to 250k. Although I always keep some cash at my house.

Bank runs? What are you gonna do with big piles of hundos in your house?

make a rap video.

we still live in a system with cash bail here in the us

P sure it’s illegal to film real money?

Can that be right? Or is it just you can’t have fake money that looks remotely real

you can't have print facsimiles of real money, but throwing around real cash in video format is fine

movies don't use real money because... why would you do that

Brokerage I prefer?

― Yerac, Monday, March 16, 2020 4:11 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yes, sorry.

They are all kind of going 0 commission which is the big thing now. I guess it depends on how much you prefer that brokerage's user interface, if you like the research they publish or trading tools or if you like their own products (like vanguard or fidelity funds).

I've had accounts at etrade, Td Ameritrade, tradeking (now Ally), scottrade, morgan stanley and interactive brokers. I have some memory of Fidelity. I want an account at Schwab for their no fee international atm card. Basically, they are all kind of the same for online. It's a preference. I do know that Robinhood has a lot of outages which seems annoying.

Thanks.

I only had accounts at this many places because places I worked made me move them to their "designated brokers".

a note just in case you were thinking of it: if you are thinking of switching brokers it takes awhile to acat accounts, like several days to a couple of weeks. So you may not want your money tied up while the market is crazy.

I want an account at Schwab for their no fee international atm card.

a good friend of mine has this and likes it ... she travels a lot for work.

This may be a small point but, this would be a good time to re-evaluate the TCJA legislation, and consider reverting back to some of the previous tax code, such as allowing the deduction for unreimbursed employee business expenses -- such as the office in home.

xpost yeah and unless they have changed a lot in the last couple of years, people at schwab are generally really helpful and their client statements and technology are better than most.

I have had my schwab account for like 20 years? ... their interface re: researching can be a little awkward, but it is pretty solid.

bailouts for every industry are good and necessary. also need to make bail outs conditional on not firing anyone

Lol yea that'll happen

i understand that this thread is mostly for blowing off steam and exchange trenchant one-liners. that’s ok; it’s much more important that people understand the public health than the economics.

the fiscal response by republican congress will be infuriating, insufficient and inequitable. it’s good to be mad about that. im very mad about it and scared for friends and family in the US.

however, right now fiscal policy is needed in a huge way just about everywhere in the world at all levels. we need it to keep money flowing while all non-essential activity shuts down. it will not come in the perfect policy package, but in some imperfect shitty way, but it will still help

flopson otm

Insane to see the central bank geniuses pull their magic lever and the lever just breaks off in their hands. Whatcha gonna do now geniuses??

good thread

Something I want to address:

Lots of people are calling for direct $ transfers to households. $1000/per person, $5000/house etc.

And I've seen some people say things in response, well like "If we can give people $1,000, why not just give them $100,000 and we'd all be rich." /1

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 15, 2020

Or: we don't need cash (only), we need to call a kind of moratorium on bills and mortgages, which is kind of what's going on in France I think?

why not just give them $100,000 and we'd all be rich.

Am I supposed to read past that?

Obv making everybody rich wouldn't work but even giving people 1k month might not stem the tide enough.

There are something like 85 million jobs considered at risk right now. Obviously they won't ALL disappear but for some people, 1k, even per adult, might help with a rent payment but still leave them delinquent elsewhere. And then there's next month.

I have about six months of bills saved. If I get laid off tomorrow, I'll survive because i will get severance. But there are plenty of people who might keep their job through the storm and have it eliminated in the aftermath and be almost broke. And enhanced unemployment or not, they may find themselves like many families did during the Great Recession, families of 8 piling into a four person home, etc.

Obviously the bailout had to happen in 2008 and the stimulus in 09, and probably here, but... I'm legitimately freaked at the inadequacy of the bill rendering many people homeless.

At least during the Great Recession, they could go outside and earn money creatively. If bailouts can be conditional on maintaining staff, great, but if not... anybody who loses their job now won't be able to get another anytime soon. And unemployment may be brutally insufficient.

I know that's what Congress is working on now but it's not snark that I say I'm afraid of friends and family having lives ruined. And mine eventually being ruined if/when my savings deplete.

Tracer otm re: suspensions of bills helping in addendum to cash.

We can't expect landlords to do it out of the goodness of their heart, it has to be legislated. But it's tough with landlords because they don't all have deep pockets

where possible, moratorium on bills is helpful

however, there’s an asymmetry in cash vs moratorium on bills that makes cash favourable:

all bills can be paid in cash, not everyones faces all kinds of bills. also, the people who receive bills also have to pay bills

say you ban rent bills but not mortgages, and your landlord relies on rent bills to pay their mortgage and they default

say you ban rent and mortgage bills but not health insurance or college loan bills. if you don’t give cash, people with health or education debt are worse off

the asymmetry also creates equity issues: people with largest rent and largest mortgages benefit the most from a moratorium. these people are richer, on average

legally it seems challenging to create a comprehensive moratorium on many different sorts of bills. there are some challenges to giving out cash, but far fewer imho

unless you can suspend *every single type of bill*, cash is preferable

Yeah freezing circulation is stupid

1935:

Federal Reserve chairman Marriner Eccles: Under present circumstances, there is very little, if any, that can be done.
Congressman T. Alan Goldsborough: You mean you cannot push on a string.
Governor Eccles: That is a very good way to put it, one cannot push on a string. We are in the depths of a depression and... beyond creating an easy money situation through reduction of discount rates, there is very little, if anything, that the reserve organization can do to bring about recovery.

One the little understood facets of the recent sharp drops in stock prices is that for every single one of those transactions for the past two weeks, there was a buyer involved.

and just a hint of nutmeg

literally just saw someone argue that now is too soon for economic stimulus, that we need to wait until we're on the other side of this, that we just need "people to participate in the economy".

gee wonder why they're not participating right now.

Apparently according to the government I am an essential business! ... About half my friends are on lockdown / shelter in place because they are considered non-essential

Yerac should be v upset about blue apron's stock rn

no i got a small amount yesterday. I was trying to get more before they halted.

I kind of understand their business model and customer base more now! so terrible.

Holy shit, if they bailout casinos ...

they should bail me out for the money I lost betting on sports last year