Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

The Big Short 2: Bigger and Shorterer

I intend to put money in my Roth IRA when I get paid tomorrow (god willing, I won't have touch it for another 15-20 years). But looking at my Fidelity account will almost certainly be painful.

xpost. ha. I jut found an article called "How to Short the World" from early 2016.

what's annoying is that they make it so easy for most people to invest long in equities but they make it so hard for those same people to take about equivalent risk short/bear positions.

i hate money, so this is good

i hate halts.

every halt, a terminator sequel

coffee break! I am still holding tvix which I supremely hate and am going to force myself to get rid of it today even though I may regret that.

or maybe tomorrow. Ugh.

coffee and tvix over several days would hurt my heart

the DJIA closed at 19,804.72 the day comrade combover took office. an annual budget deficit north of $1 trillion later, we're almost 2000 points higher! MAGA!

yerac how did you learn about investing?

i worked at 2 large investment banks and a rating agency, but that was completely accidental; my degree was in anthro, astro. but there is a ton of information out there that you can learn the basics fairly quickly (i would just investopedia everything at work because I did not have a background). And i've always been good with money, since I was a teen.

but I would not recommend investing any money in the market that you are not prepared to just lose.

lol that might be taking it too far

I don't know anyone's personal situation or age so it's difficult for me to encourage people to put their money somewhere not knowing their risk.

like i worked at a bank (that eventually bought LEH) and I saw employees making 10k x's whatever volume trades for their own accounts to buy LEH at $10, $8, $4 because they were so sure it would come back.

but i mean also, if you have money that you won't need for x length of time you kind of should put it somewhere.

but I would not recommend investing any money in the market that you are not prepared to just lose.

which is why it is so cool that the default retirement savings package for every corporate job now is a 401k and not a pension :/

I figured you learned all about money from working at a record store.

let me tell you all about moondog's estate planning.

which is why it is so cool that the default retirement savings package for every corporate job now is a 401k and not a pension :/

otm

catching a falling knife is v different from having a 401k.

If you're saving for 10/20/30 years out then panicking and taking money out now is the worst thing to do because you're essentially swallowing all the losses of the last few days rather than waiting for it to come back and potentially investing while things are cheap. If they don't come back then we will have bigger things to worry about because the underlying reason for that will be very bad indeed.

I invest 12.5% of my income (plus whatever my employer matches, I forgot) every two weeks, in mostly index funds. if I catch things while they’re cheap, good for me. Autopilot rules.

I have spent my whole adult life saying "in the long run, stocks grow, put money in there you can afford to save and never ever ever think about changing it until you're 65" -- I have almost 20 years to go and I'm sticking with that philosophy.

I took some gains last correction and have been holding my ira contributions as cash for basically just this moment

It's beginning ... confirmed layoffs already among:

-- Port drivers in LA
-- Hotel workers in Seattle
-- Travel agencies in Atlanta
-- Stage hands in Las Vegas
-- Festival workers in Texas

& more to come ..@abhabhattarai @byHeatherLong @rachsieg https://t.co/KZRrezrbGD

— Jeffrey Stein (@JStein_WaPo) March 11, 2020

Whirring overhead:

"On March 12, 2020, the Desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET that will settle on March 13, 2020."

Wednesday was an unsettling day on global financial markets, and not just because the stock market fell sharply enough to bring a decade-plus bull market to an end.

Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet.

Bond prices and stock prices were moving together, not in opposite directions as they usually do. On a day when major economic disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic appeared to become likelier — which might be expected to make typical market safe havens more popular — many of them fell instead. That included bonds of all sorts and gold.

And there were reports from trading desks that many assets that are normally liquid — easy to buy and sell — were freezing up, with securities not trading widely. This was true of the bonds issued by municipalities and major corporations but, more curiously, also of Treasury bonds, normally the bedrock of the global financial system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/upshot/markets-weird-coronavirus.html

all i know is that because of Dodd Frank all these large financial firms should have funeral plans to unwind in an orderly fashion if they go under so they don't fuck the rest of the world.

I put half my 401(k) into a low risk bond fund this week. It rarely falls with my stock funds but it did this week.

Whoa what the hell was that spike

BREAKING: Fed is injecting $1.5 trillion into short-term lending markets, a rare move to try to calm investors' worries about coronavirus

just a little $1.5 Trillion injection

whoa whoa whoa what’s with the government interference

total student loan debt (federal + private): $1.6T

lmao the bounce only lasted about 2 hours

nbd, just inject another $1.5T every 2 hours

Bitcoin took a 20% drop too, I'm guessing people are cashing out to cover their losses now

gonna be interesting to see how that acts in a bear market for the first time ever

Based solely on having watched the Fed for the past few decades, I'd expect another multi-trillion injection fairly soon, though probably not again today. Liquidity is bound to be drying up and the Fed will always act to protect big financial institutions.

schwab.com has a lot of good resources about investing and such if you are interested. I like the fact that it gives you a DIY option to investing, rather than the traditional "we will manage your money and take a bunch of your money as fees for our service" brokerage model.

Looks like by tomorrow we will have pretty much wiped out all of the gains of the Trump presidency. Probably even more than if you account for inflation.

to be a fly on the wall for that White House conversation

which is why it is so cool that the default retirement savings package for every corporate job now is a 401k and not a pension :/

― mh, Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:52 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

BTW, as much as I agree with this, pension funds basically depend on a mix of stocks, bonds and other investments to be able to pay retirees, so it's not like they're immune to this.

well, yeah, but the benefits themselves are derived from a set formula and it's entirely employer paid (other than those archaic contributory plans), so worst that happens is the trust gets severely underfunded and the company can't afford to fully fund it or fund it at all. and then possibly the PBGC has to step in. which it did quite often during the Great Recession.

LOL some EU mkts banning short selling.
here comes the predictable manipulated covering bounce

Surge!

Josta!

I give that esoteric joke an 8!