2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

I don't think a Warren endorsement would be that valuable at this point, enough time has passed that anyone who pays enough attention to her to care about her endorsement knows it would be grudging.

I appreciate the 5D CHESS!! of “Warren should def endorse Bernie to make her Biden endorsement more meaningful.”

idk why anyone in Bernie’s camp wants her endorsement. they’ve spent the past couple of months convincing me she’s Not A Real Progressive.

by "his camp" do you mean snotty young supporters or the actual campaign

I was an Inslee stan till last August. Wish it gave me a warmer feeling to see him back in the news.

One of 10 candidates I'd prefer to the current options.

That describes only 5% of the Bernie camp folks I know, but whatever, I feel like we’ve flogged this horse to a pulp in the previous thread

Xp to roger

I don't think a Warren endorsement would be that valuable at this point, enough time has passed that anyone who pays enough attention to her to care about her endorsement knows it would be grudging.

I think a well-timed Warren endorsement could have done a lot to make the Sanders campaign seem less ideologically isolated, which in turn might have helped with the credibility issue, the sense that he's promising outlandish ideas no one else thinks is worth pursuing, that he's not really "serious." It wouldn't just be about bringing her (whatever) % into the fold, it would be to help say, "hey, these views are representative of a certain wing of the party." And most people aren't really paying a ton of attention to the insider beef shit.

by "his camp" do you mean snotty young supporters or the actual campaign

Yeah and also more simplistically sometimes just that shot of juice / endorphins that a symbolic act like an endorsement provides can do wonders for the whole spirit around a campaign . Right now Bernie-land is pretty morose.

Xp again

otm

I almost want AOC to unendorse Bernie so she could re-endorse him again

She should unendorse him go to endorse Biden and then do the "too slow" handshake thing.

why are Sanders supporters so poisonous on twitter

Life is short. Embrace opportunities to imagine the dream of a new possibility.

IT ISN'T "THE PRIMARY," GODFUCKINGDAMMIT! PRIMARIES!

this is the primary thread to discuss Democratic presidential in

I was prepared to vote for Bernie in the CA primary but if I were faced with this choice now I honestly don't know...

― Οὖτις, Saturday, March 7, 2020 9:37 AM (eight hours ago)

IT ISN'T "THE PRIMARY," GODFUCKINGDAMMIT! PRIMARIES!

― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Saturday, March 7, 2020 4:19 PM (one hour ago)

that's Shakey telt

Fuck, Bernie is at 1 in 50 chance of a majority in the 538 forecast. Sorry, you can't blame Warren for not wanting to endorse that. This is on Bernie, he lost it.

Also, holy shit you guys talked a lot about Warren through the night, huh? Honestly crazy how much anger there is at her after Bernie fucked this up so massively

at least someone is happy:) ^

More seriously the window for a Warren endorsement is long gone, if it was every really even an option

... she suspended her campaign yesterday

I mean, I don't imagine that she'll expect the louder Bernie fans to be anything but pissy about handing over those votes she stole, but the endorsement is still likely coming.

lol

It was never an option, but yeah it would help even less today than it would have done a week ago

oops that lol was meant for a different thread sorry!

If you're going to endorse anyone it carries more weight if you do it immediately. Biden's endorsers had hardly any time to play with and needed to strike while iron was hot.

(I'm not suggesting Warren is required to endorse Bernie, or indeed anyone else). Bernie needed a lot more than just one endorsment anyway and he should have been hunting down other names to counter Biden's recent set of endorsements, the cumulative effect of which was worth than any specific one

There weren't any other candidates to get, except for Tulsi's dead-enders and their militia already voted.

That's on Bernie, not Warren though

He got Marianne Williamson as a surrogate. She began tweeting about coups...

Warren's failure is her own poor campaign not the lack of endorsement (which she isn't obliged to give)

No one said anything about fault but the narrative of failure to get an endorsement from people whose political aims are opposed to his is dumb. "Okay, so we'll abandon Medicare4All Pete, you in?!"

Fuck, Bernie is at 1 in 50 chance of a majority in the 538 forecast. Sorry, you can't blame Warren for not wanting to endorse that. This is on Bernie, he lost it.

a) nonsense
b) there are still 30 states to go and Biden might accidentally go on TV in the next few days and let voters see him talk

I don't think it's dumb to look at where we are now and say that Sanders strategy wrt m4a was a mistake

I think voters have seen Biden talk, sic...

Assuming you're right Fred, what should Bernie have done differently

a) pre-Nevada
b) between Nevada and Super Tuesday
c) since Super Tuesday

(fwiw i largely agree with you that Warren isn't really a factor)

Abandoning your signature and most popular issue is a strong political strategy.

Most voters do not pay as much attention as the people in these threads and (fingers crossed) now have fewer distractions in the field

I don't think it's dumb to look at where we are now and say that Sanders strategy wrt m4a was a mistake

he near-singlehandedly made it an issue of national discussion and has mobilised millions of young ppl on the issue (many of whom are not able to take eight hours on a work day to caucus or vote in a primary despite now being engaged), and weaponised a slogan to do so which nobody has achieved in seventy years of post-New-Deal politicking. the fact that this has activated multibillion for-profit health"care" corporations, who donate to shitty Dems, against him was not a reason to not do this.

There were no debates between South Carolina, endorsements and Super Tuesday or since. When Biden speaks, it does seem to hurt him (cf. the first three states).

Which is cool because if he wins anyway, it will be fodder for the narrative that Bernie tanked him.

I mean, he should have never run in the first place :)

Who knows what could have been done? What was needed after Nevada was a pivot into becoming a unity candidate, and somehow avoiding getting hurt so bad in South Carolina. The SC thing is just incredible, it killed him four years ago, and he let the same thing happen this year. We don't know who is to blame but that was bad bad bad. The pivot... Does anyone think Sanders could have done it? I know Matt Yglesias wrote that thing about how Sanders was mostly going to govern like every other Democrat, but... That's clearly not what neither Sanders' fans nor the establishment thought.

It's a lot easier for a progressive candidate to win two caucaseses and a very white primary. Though Sanders didn't even do that well in New Hampshire. What the heck do you do after that?

... you realize that whites are not his strongest demographic, right?

Making a litmus test out of something that was never going to be passed is a good way to stand out. None of the other candidates could follow Bernie on M4A. But now he seems alone and isolated instead. So yeah, in hindsight, it worked amazingly for a long time, but then it came back to hurt him.

Lets take those one by one

a) He shouldn't have run.

Who should have run instead?

b) A pivot into becoming a unity candidate.

Agree 100%!

c) hurt so bad in South Carolina

SC was always going to be somewhere he'd do badly. I'm not sure he could have avoided that. Being better prepared for the day after the defeat might have worked. I think pulling some names out of the hat might have helped. Steyer, Beto and Yang isn't the greatest forward line but pulling in some numbers might have helped. Definitely should have really capitalized on that big Nevada win more than he did though

South Carolina is going to be tough every time a progressive runs, but you just have to do better than losing by 30%. You just have to. And if the progressive movement wants to do better next time, honestly they could do worse things than just focus 100% on getting the message to work in South Carolina, and then get it to work elsewhere afterwards.

Who should have run instead

If, as several Liz Lads argued, James Clyburn is that influential (and he probably is, though I don't know what by what percentage), it's pointless concern trolling to even talk about it. He's actively opposed to Medicare For All.

lol @ 7/8 chances of Biden winning the nomination according to 538.

A progressive candidate cannot play by the same rules as the centrists - the Sanders strategy of appealing to the people is the only option. The media and party apparatus managed to form a coherent front at the last second to (probably) stop it again this time but it was getting pretty dicey - what if Biden wasn't able to take the mantle?

Softening or abandoning progressive issues to appeal to the centrists and/or apparatus doesn't work - they jump ship to an actual moderate (much like moderate Republicans just vote for the Republican) - and you lose your base. If it was an effective strategy, Elizabeth Warren wouldn't have tanked after being the front runner.

Maybe, as a strategy, it will never work and we'll just keep circling the drain until the seas swallow us up or nuclear hellfire engulfs us all. Maybe it will work at 'shifting the Overton Window' where Joe Biden now has to at least pretend to care about a minimum wage increase. Maybe in 2024 or 2028 (or 2020 after Biden calls a protester an adorable ethnic slur) it just works and we don't have a complete dogshit general election between two people who think poor people in hot countries count as human beings.

who don't think poor people in hot countries count as human beings, obv.

Btw is this thread's subtitle a 'Hollow Men' quote or…?

“work hard to elect him” lol as if, that’s definitely too much to ask

and here I thought Dems didn't know how to open a negotiation by asking for more than they think they'll get. turns out some of them must have figured it out.

I was searching for an analog in my experience to this Sanders/Biden situation. I rejected my first thought, which tried to compare it to McCarthy/Humphrey, because Humphrey was to deeply a part of the war administration that McCarthy supporters were trying to overthrow.

The nearest I could come was the counterfactual of Ed Muskie having beat out McGovern and asking McGovern supporters to help him beat Nixon. It would have been a hard sell, but we all had had a good dose of Nixon's war policy by then and I am sure that our hatred of Nixon would have sealed the deal. But to "work hard" for Muskie would have been a bridge too far for most anti-war youth.

the analog is every primary ever

if the current state of the US, both domestically and internationally, has not already put you in a position to determine if you plan to vote against or for Donald Trump, a call from a phone bank ain't gonna do it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV2HSSuX0AYxb_u?format=jpg&name=medium

lol

goddamn, coronavirus is rotting the brains of america's pundit class

if the current state of the US, both domestically and internationally, has not already put you in a position to determine if you plan to vote against or for Donald Trump, a call from a phone bank ain't gonna do it.

This is a helpful balm on the off-chance you were feeling guilty about not phone-banking, or if you are phone-banking and you don't feel like you're doing ENOUGH phone-banking.

Surely there is a demographic for whom a landline phone call from a stranger will make a difference in what they do or don't do. I know I am not in this demographic. Happy to be educated on who they are.

the analog is every primary ever

What makes this primary unusual is the size of the progressive movement's vote share, which must be courted by the colorless, lifeless moderate. No one as progressive as Sanders has come this close to the nomination in a very long time, except... Sanders in 2016. And in this case the occupant of the White House isn't Obama, but Trump, whose policies, corruption and incompetence make him as hated by progressives as Nixon was.

it's a shame Jay Inslee died and so couldn't be finagled into the Democratic nominee, or put on national TV every night like the governor of New York

The president’s statements this morning encourage illegal and dangerous acts. He is putting millions of people in danger of contracting COVID-19.

His unhinged rantings and calls for people to “liberate” states could also lead to violence. We’ve seen it before.

The president is fomenting domestic rebellion and spreading lies - even while his own administration says the virus is real, it is deadly and that we have a long way to go before restrictions can be lifted.

Just yesterday, the president told the nation science would guide his plan for easing restrictions. The White House released a sensible plan laying out many of the guidelines that I agree are essential to follow, as we work to resume economic activity.

Less than 24 hrs later, Trump is off the rails, ignoring his own plan and spewing dangerous, anti-democratic rhetoric.

The president’s actions threaten his own goal of recovery. His words will likely cause a spike in infections where distancing is working.

That will further postpose the 14 days of decline his own guidance says is necessary to ease restrictions.

We appreciate our continued relationship with the vice president, Dr. Birx, Admiral Polowczyk, Admiral Giroir and others in the federal government. But their work is undermined by the president's irresponsible statements.

I hope someday we can look at today’s meltdown as something to be pitied, rather than condemned. But we don’t have that luxury today. There is too much at stake.

I encourage political leaders of all sorts to speak out firmly against the president’s calls for rebellion.

Americans need to work together to protect each other. It’s the only way to slow the spread of this deadly virus and get us on the road to recovery.

btw NY has CANCELED its prez primary while there are still local contests that will be held... so what is the prince up to?

Strong suspicion that the cancellation of the Dem primary, while it has the side effect of harming this bid to get Bernie delegates to the convention, is really about protecting threatened Dem incumbents challenged from the left by giving voters less reason to turn out https://t.co/Hcm9jqzf78

— David Dayen (@ddayen) April 27, 2020

NY has CANCELED its prez primary

I think it would have to be the NY Democratic Central Committee who decided that, not the NY state elections authorities. But, yeah, NY party politics have long been played from the bottom of the deck as much as the top. Machine politics were practically invented in NY.

democracy briefly returns to NY

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/judge-restores-ny-democratic-presidential-primary-on-june-23/2403840/

hope this inspiring figure can get back in the game :(

Black lives depend on whether America can be what we want to believe it is. What we need it to be. What it could be. Systemic racism is so woven into the fabric of this country, facing it will take action, honesty, listening, and deep, deep change. And for many of us, humility.

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) May 29, 2020

white noise of the softest kind