Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

United (at least) announced it was cutting flights.

xxp every advisory group has, forever, said “lay people off” when it comes to savings as a first resort. partially because it’s the most easily quantifiable year-over-year cost and they stuck parma-contractors ina different column

went looking for cheap flights to italy today but everything was still like a thousand bucks

The pessimistic story on corporate debt and leveraged loans has always been that some exogenous event starts a cascade of defaults, which then turns a mild shock into a widespread credit freeze-up and recession.

So, um, about that.https://t.co/4UgkZFI9xc

— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) March 6, 2020

i know the market is making people anxious but this was a long, long time coming (if indeed we don't just regain everything next week on absolutely nothing changing). I am super patient but I was totally over this stupid market gaining consistently on Trump's farts.

might as well mention that my employer hastily executed a purchase of a Zoom site license, for which something like 100,000 people will be eligible users, to replace the prior arrangement recharging $48/user/year for the full-featured accounts so honestly Zoom is gonna have a good quarter.

my other investment tip based on what just occurred to me: corporate VPN software providers

looks like Cisco's sadly the most popular publicly traded one

don't neglect F5

sadly you can't buy stock in Wireguard

yeah i have been cleaning up my watchlist for the first time in awhile this week. have added some new things, like zoom. I'm curious about next week.

huh, they didn't show up on Gartner's (lol) list. Apparently Pulse got bought from Juniper and is private now, and Citrix is probably a thing as well but I have irrational skepticism of them

browsing investor-focused sites that talk about tech company valuations once again leads me to believe that finance types have absolutely no idea what companies do or how they do it

auto-FP for mentioning Gartner's

let's make an ilxor magic quadrant

I should have appended a groan instead of a lol

they're only good as a metric to figure out what braindead leadership is buying because braindead leadership pays them to know what to say

don't invest in companies selling discretionary technology purchases to businesses is my take. source: my dang bank account.

sock execution vs completeness of sock vision

yeah, i don't read any investor sites anymore. I barely trusted places that I knew had regimented standards of evaluating. I can't be bothered anymore to try to figure out who people are.

I've heard of more than one clueless CTO that just parrots whatever the hell that cursed company says in newsletters to executives

haha imagine what would have happened wework stock if they'd have gone through with the IPO.

it's all we have left

I am excited to share the progress of the Tennis Pavillion at @WhiteHouse. Thank you to the talented team for their hard work and dedication. pic.twitter.com/Wzown2ho26

— Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) March 5, 2020

I'll be glad to see trees planted here in 2021.

is this good? https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-streaming-chart

it is good for my biceps as I hold these heavy bags

see if the asian markets plunge on open? Or not if you just want to get a good night's sleep.

I'm happy oil is finally tanking.

Looks like tomorrow is going to be rough.

Did Airbnb announce their ipo plans yet? They have to be worried.

Still $800 or so to go to max my Roth contributions for 2019, sounds like this might be a good week for it

I'm taking steps toward getting my parents' house on the market (my dad passed away in January; my mom will need to move into assisted living very soon if in-home care isn't enough). Lots of variables are suddenly at play. They're in a town that's full of elderly/retired folks (many at risk). Interest rates are practically nil. Maybe folks in their 60s/70s will want to get out of the market and buy a house. Other folks probably just missed their chance.

xpost. I didn't know airbnb was trying to ipo. I don't really pay attention to ipos because they have all been terrible for awhile. I was just looking up homeaway/vrbo stock and had no clue expedia bought them years ago.

VRBO's branding now is "Vrbo" to make it look more startuppy, which cracks me up

I just had to look up what vrbo and asos stands for because i realized I did not know.

ASOS originally stood for AsSeenOnScreen[3] with the tagline "Buy what you see on film and TV"[4] because it exclusively sold imitations of clothing from those mediums (for example, Brad Pitt's red leather jacket from the 1999 movie Fight Club).

wow what an irritating concept

sorry abt yr dad EZ

ugh, yes apologies for completely skipping over that. Sorry for your loss and having to deal with it all at this time.

Sorry ez. FWIW we have an open house across the road and I checked it out today. aside from the fact that no one is taking the free snacks they set out, it seems like the insanely cheap money is leading to a little boomlet in this market at that price point (first time buyer, young family, etc.) I’m not sure the sellers would choose to sell in this environment in an ideal world though.

Meanwhile

BREAKING: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield plunges below 0.5% https://t.co/2AGkdlQhDL pic.twitter.com/X7A4qiXNKc

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) March 9, 2020

So what you’re saying is if I don’t lose my job I should buy a house?

tbh it seems like both a buyer’s and seller’s market? no reason to invest in stocks unless you’re banking on the recovery as there are no immediate gains and mortgages are cheap. as a seller you might be able to move a house faster. idk, lots of variables

i am supposed to sell my place in a couple of months. It's bumming me out a little because I really wanted to sell it for the past two years but my friends have been renting it from me and I kind of was trying to let them organically move out on their own time. And then I just kind of realized that was never going to happen without me giving them a timeframe. The timeframe being in 2 more months given to them over 8 months ago. C'est le putain covid la vie or something. Oh well.

I wouldn’t go that far, but if you own a house you should probably refinance in a month or two.

love to clean my bathrooms for a stranger to put a dollar amount on how well i cleaned my bathrooms

During uncertain times people tend to hang onto their money, avoid purchases and accruing debt, so that the pace at which money circulates slows down markedly. The Fed tracks this as a measure of economic fears. If this scenario continues to generate uncertainty in large quantities, I'd look for plenty of refinancing of loans, but a slow housing market... up to the point where buying looks so much better than renting that the risk of buying in a weak or falling market seems worthwhile.

xpost is that a new startup idea?

I don't have a mortgage (honestly it's luck and being stupid frugal about things). I just don't want the responsibility of a place i don't really live in anymore.

I am considering a refi but I just did so less than two years ago, owe less than $150k, and have a below 4% rate already

I guess instead of paying cash I could pull more mortgage money for a kitchen remodel, but it seems like a lot of churn

refinancing is almost as much work as closing on a house, so don't do it for the lols. but at our balance (lol california) we'd be talking a $500+/month saving over the lifetime of the loan if things keep up like this.

had no clue expedia bought them years ago

ahhh so that explains the jank

Hey guys

i refinanced my first place and went from 6.0% to like 4.25%. It was very, very annoying to do and then I annoyingly ended up selling maybe two years later.

I bought a negligible amount of tvix before close last week, even though I hate tvix. I should've had more faith about no good luck USA + world.

I used some online calculator, and given we have less than ten years left on a mortgage already locked in low at a little over 3.25%, a refinance would save us monthly but ultimately end up costing thousands extra, plus closing costs and stuff.