US Politics, March 2020 — There’s a very good chance you’re not going to die.

I just looked up the 18-29 voter turnout since 2004.

2004 presidential: 49.0
2006 midterm: 23.5
2008 presidential: 51.1
2010 midterm: 20.4
2012 presidential: 45.0
2014 midterm: 19.9
2016 presidential: 46.1
2018 midterm: 35.6

Midterm data from here and here. Presidential data from here.

It doesn't look like Obama had a significant effect on turnout, but there was a huge increase between 2014 and 2018 because of Trump.

Of course, that's no guarantee that the 18-29 vote will go up in 2020.

For one, the midterm vote in 2018 was still lower than the presidential vote in 2016, so it's possible that the 2014-to-2018 midterm increase came from people who always vote in presidential elections but don't always vote in midterms.

For another, midterms aren't dependent on a single candidate. If the Democratic nominee doesn't inspire enthusiasm among young voters, they probably won't turn out in great numbers.

midterms are always ~25% below presidential numbers is the thing. the 2018 turnout was extraordinary. the increase in turnout came from anti-trump sentiment, and a smart candidate in 2020 will do the same.

For one, the midterm vote in 2018 was still lower than the presidential vote in 2016,

apples and oranges, though?

was gonna say, the turnout in 2018 overall was the largest since they've kept those figures. after 1970. the highest overall turnout at a midterm was 42% in 1982, and it had shrunk significantly to 36.7 in 2014.

the 16% increase for those 18-29 was the highest of any age group. and although fired up Trumpers may have definitely increased Republican turnout, I'm with m bison, a large portion of that increase was an anti-Trump bloc who helped the Dems pick up 40 seats.

xpost yes, completely apples and oranges. like milo said, Presidential always greatly outpaces midterms. since they've kept records, the lowest turnout for a Presidential election was 48.9% in 1924. The only midterm turnout that exceeded even that figure was....2018.

replace "since they've kept records" with "since 1916".

i swear to fuck - if we are on the election thread in November talking about how polls always miss young people because they don’t have landlines so actually there’s reason to feel good about things i am going to throttle someone

i'm particularly worried about bernie because young people just don't vote.

Minority turnout has a bigger impact. Youth turnout was basically the same between '12 and '16 but minority turnout (and share going to Democrats) dropped, which is where you get the difference between Obama's comfortable re-election and Hillary losing.

For one, the midterm vote in 2018 was still lower than the presidential vote in 2016, so it's possible that the 2014-to-2018 midterm increase came from people who always vote in presidential elections but don't always vote in midterms.

it could also have included people who have never been eligible to vote in a Presidential election, or have been but never voted before. But I don't see why that's a pejorative. Because 2018's referendum on Trump likely inspired that stark increase in voting turnout, 2020 could wind up inspiring people who haven't voted in either type of election to show up.

2012's Pres election was largely won by turnout. If Dems get out the vote, it can happen again.

xpost milo otm

Bernie's strength with the Latinx community should give hope (if you think he'll be the eventual nominee) - there's more room for Democratic voter share to climb with Latinx voters (who also tend to be younger) than with black voters.

I do see higher social media performances by Sanders-following Latinx, but I don't know. We'll see on March 17.

That came out garbled. If you're in Miami and of Hispanic background, Sanders can claim a few fans.

Do any polls in Iowa, Nevada and SC indicate he won them by higher margins than in 2016?

according to cnn, sanders won 50% of the latinx vote last weekend. i dont have the 2016 numbers in front of me, but if i remember correctly, this was a yuge improvement.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada/polling

sanders lost tx in 2016 by like 30%

Bernie Sanders lidera las encuestas en Texas rumbo al Super Martes y aventaja a Biden en 33% en el voto latino que representa el 40% del total del electorado en ese Estado el segundo con mas delegados -228- en este "Super Tuesday" tras California en donde también lidera Sanders pic.twitter.com/yGkQuA85GR

— Jorge Gestoso (@JorgeGestoso) March 1, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada/polling

― majority whip, majority nae nae (m bison), S

I saw it but compared to 2016? And what was the turnout? I'm not grilling you btw

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

ah ha! sanders won latinos in nv in 2016, but 53-45.

he closed his deficit with Black voters quite a bit, too. -56% in '16, -10% last week.

what the fuck

Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher shows 60 Minutes his war memorabilia, including the knife seen in his photo with the dead ISIS fighter. https://t.co/nDZBPHA0ub pic.twitter.com/b86c5oI8Qu

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) March 2, 2020

People accepted and loved by #TheResistance:

✅ David Frum
✅ Bill Kristol
✅ Max Boot
✅ Jennifer Rubin
✅ Steve Schmidt
✅ Rick Wilson

People not accepted and hated by #TheResistance:

🚫 Bernie Sanders
🚫 Nina Turner
🚫 Ilhan Omar
🚫 Rashida Tlaib
🚫 Susan Sarandon

— Ibrahim (@ibrahimpols) March 2, 2020

Like her film choices since 1996, Susan Sarandon's endorsing Jill Stein is evidence of soul rot.

she was pretty good as bette davis in feud

What does it mean to be “loved and accepted by” and “not accepted and hated“ in terms of a hashtag?

Are there data metric systems that measure opinions of user groups that right? Source?

I’m not saying he’s wrong really.

"loved and accepted by" = booked on MSNBC

I feel like people are constantly mishearing "Bill Kristol is right about Trump" as "Bill Kristol is good now" rather than "Trump is so bad that even Bill Kristol, who is now and has always been bad, can't deny it"

yeah, conservatives always have pet liberals-- "Even the liberal x thinks Obamacare goes too far."

Remember the good old days when that was Alan Dershowitz?

Very cool!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting

eephus otm.

If one approvingly quotes a specific utterance of e.g. J Rubin, one is not suddenly endorsing her entire worldview. Any more than if one approvingly quotes a specific utterance of a fellow poster here.

Very cool!

DC Judge Royce Lamberth today says Hillary Clinton must sit for deposition 'on matters concerning her reasons for using a private server and her understanding of State's records management obligations.' Order:https://t.co/qhSBAnwJCv pic.twitter.com/xrvABBWog6

— Mike Scarcella (@MikeScarcella) March 2, 2020

The Justice Department felt it needed to rush ahead with this investigation now, in 2020, due to statute of limitations, no doubt.

Biden 2020: this time, really, for sure he can do it probably

Biden 2020: You know the thing

Biden 2020: Put #MeToo to Work For You

Do the Limbo with Your Expectations Like Never Before

A Warm, Unexpected Hug From The Back For America

A Warm, Unexpected Hug From The Back For America

Take it to

Up-the-arse corner

good news everybody, GOP in-fighting continues in Alabama:

President Trump criticized Republican Alabama Senate candidate Jeff Sessions early Wednesday, asserting that his former attorney general didn’t win the state's GOP primary outright because of what Trump described as Sessions's lack of “wisdom or courage” in his handling of the Russia investigation.

“This is what happens to someone who loyally gets appointed Attorney General of the United States & then doesn’t have the wisdom or courage to stare down & end the phony Russia Witch Hunt,” Trump tweeted, just hours after news broke that Tuesday’s Senate primary in Alabama would advance to a runoff between Sessions and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.

“Recuses himself on FIRST DAY in office, and the Mueller Scam begins!” Trump added.

Trump’s critical tweet about Sessions suggests the president may seek to boost Tuberville in the runoff election. Trump has thus far stayed out of the race, though a source familiar with the situation told The Hill last month that Trump could support Sessions’s opponent if the race advanced to a runoff. Still, Wednesday's tweet did not contain an explicit endorsement of Tuberville.

Trump repeatedly and publicly eviscerated Sessions for his decision to recuse himself from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference during his tenure as attorney general.

Sessions and Tuberville were running neck and neck after polls closed Tuesday night — Sessions held 31.6 percent of the vote and Tuberville 33.4 percent with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

Both candidates will compete for the Republican nomination in the March 31 runoff, and the winner will face Sen. Doug Jones in the November election. Jones is considered the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing reelection in 2020.

if tuberville becomes senator, i vote that we strip auburn's share of the 2004 ncaa football national championship.

sure they were undefeated, but there was no playoff then and the sec wasn't the behemoth it is now!

sorry, it's just really fucking weird to see tommy tuberville back in the news. it was weird when he was a coach too.

Either of the Republicans are going to paste Doug Jones. He barely beat the pedophile.

yeah but he was a MAGA Pedophile

spike in African American turnout required for Doug to win - it's possible

if Sessions wins the primary and Trump goes HAM on him, GOP vote will split

I saw some surprisingly internally consistent shit-talking from NRO/TPUSA psychos about Moore. I did not expect them to actually hold being a pedophile against one of their own.

Jones has a chance.

Another chance here, too:

Steve Bullock Is Poised to Run for Senate in Montana, Officials Say

(also funnier)

*rimshot*

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ6vKsZXYAE5Hu6.jpg

I assume when it happens and Trump is asking his aides and Congress for updates on infrastructure reform he'll ask them if the "infra has been structured yet"

There's a super fancy Blu-Ray of Phase IV coming out in about a week, with the original ending and a ton of supplemental material, plus a 200-page hardcover book. Unfortunately, it's Region B.

Thanks for the encouragement, all.

A reminder to some of his new TV fans that Andy Cuomo is a major shit

https://gothamist.com/news/cuomo-medicaid-cuts-coronavirus-aid

it's always hilarious when McConnell gets ahead of Trump, funny how he hasn't learned his lesson.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hit the brakes Tuesday on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) plan to move ahead with a fourth stimulus package that would include major infrastructure spending and other Democratic priorities.

“I think we need to wait a few days here, a few weeks, and see how things are working out,” McConnell said on “The Hugh Hewitt Show.”

“Let’s see how things are going and respond accordingly,” he added. “I’m not going to allow this to be an opportunity for the Democrats to achieve unrelated policy items that they would not otherwise be able to pass.”

McConnell's remarks came the same day that President Trump encouraged Congress to pass a $2 trillion infrastructure bill as the next piece of coronavirus legislation.

"With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill," Trump tweeted.

The Phase IV soundtrack was reissued, or maybe first issued in 2015. It is excellent!

Me, I'm looking forward to the lush swirl of

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tROZ-QijxoM/V9ODBm4AJ7I/AAAAAAAAWLk/bGsL6osb_yMetNYYehl20yhmkkUM1NINQCLcB/s1600/mxr-phase-95.jpg

My proposal to the politically correct Automobile Companies would lower the average price of a car to consumers by more than $3500, while at the same time making the cars substantially safer. Engines would run smoother. Positive impact on the environment! Foolish executives!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2020

here's what I would do if I ran a hospital: I'd make my own ventilators for cheap. they'd be much better than the ones we've got now. everybody lives!!

what's really sad is that he's talking there about his administration's decision to roll back the fuel economy standards that obama set into place, not even as a favor to the automobile industry (believe it or not they actually advocated for keeping the existing standards, which are more in alignment with Europe and other countries), but just because obama did it.

honestly I think this will be like his attempts to save the coal industry - ie a failure because the market's already made its judgment

obviously lying about the positive impact on the environment (shocker: in terms of climate change, this is his biggest and final move to increase US emisisons). and on the face of it it seems VERY dubious to tell people that the price of cars is going to go down by $3500 while not mentioning that they're going to have to buy more gasoline per mile.

by the way, the standards they dropped it to are so low that they're below even what the industry is already doing by itself:

The new rule, which is expected to be implemented by late spring, will roll back a 2012 rule that required automakers’ fleets to average about 54 miles per gallon by 2025. Instead, the fleets would have to average about 40 miles per gallon.

To meet the new number, fuel economy standards would have to rise by about 1.5 percent a year, compared to the 5 percent annual increase required by the Obama rule. The auto industry, without any regulation, has recently achieved an average annual increase in fuel economy of 2.4 percent.

why bother with the carrot and the stick? you don't need either! just do whatever

if it's a failure to make climate change even worse, than that's the best case scenario. but the pessimist in me also notes it's also a failure to press for strong economy standards that actually PUSH the auto industry to improve fuel economy more than they otherwise would. in other words, in an ongoing climate crisis, it's a very obvious missed opportunity to at least press them to do something more than BAU

guys my band's opening for the trump show. doors at 5.

its such a strange thing to get hung up on, nobody's advocating this and there's no constituency for it. it really is just trying to further shit on Obama's legacy

hey, if you see trump, please yell at the top of your lungs "YOU TREASONOUS WHITE COLLAR MURDEROUS FUCKING ASSHOLE!!" as many time as possible. find the tv cameras and look for the boom microphones sticking out of them. find the guys with headphones near the cameras - they are likely producers or sound dudes, and will have mics as well. aim your bad words toward those microphones, it's the only way

I will. Hang on!

ALfred!
ALfred!
ALfred!

curse! curse! curse! curse!

it's a low-probability thing but i am going to go ahead and make a weird witch's brew of cursing ingrendients, foliage, body parts, powder, etc, and come up with something that i can throw at him as well. hoping one of the ingredients will literally put a curse on him and he'll die

The most hilarious part about this is that the auto industry is raising fuel standards because they are hopelessly politically correct.

i am so sick of these liberal "PC" heavy manufacturing industries

fucking farm to table SUVs

I automatically read the last sentence in that tweet in a Gollum voice, makes a change from reading it all in a Paul Stanley voice like I normally do to keep myself sane

https://twitter.com/nahaltoosi/status/1245103140610936832

Trump pushes $2 trillion infrastructure package in next coronavirus bill. Citing low interest rates, the president tweeted that now is the time to push forward with a “VERY BIG & BOLD” infrastructure package.

Always a bad sign ...

I didn't watch yesterday's Trump conference but CNN seemed to be painting it last night as some kind of pivotal moment where he was forced to face reality and lay out some serious shit for the US people (and he did a bad job, well duh). Anyone else get that sense?

US Politics, April 2020 -- Where's the Vax Returns?