The Best NL Central Fans in Baseball 2020

hmm, could make sense? he has the second highest projected OBP (.373), behind rizzo and ahead of schwarber and contreras, and is a better baserunner than that group.

yeah, seems reasonable

of course, if bryant slumps to start the season than it is the dumbest move of all time and everyone knows you can't mess with a player's routine

they didn't have a natural leadoff player last year and still don't really. based on the little we saw of nico hoerner last year he could be a good fit possibly.

this thread was a poll last year. any thoughts on who could win the division that are more insightful than mine ("could be anyone but the pirates")?

that's pretty much everyone's take this year, i think. i think it'll just come down to injuries and who is in a position to make a big pickup at the trade deadline

but then again, you can say that about most years.

i don't really get why pecota has the cubs to repeat last year's record when they've lost hamels and lester is a year older. idk, i guess hoerner could be good and kimbrel can't be worse. bullpen seems sketchy?

i assume the cardinals will feature like a dozen mysteriously great young starters but it seems like they've finally run out of outfielders

reds might be real! should be interesting to see how they all fit together

welcome (back) to the division BROCK HOLT

i think the idea the cardinals are running with is that they still have enough outfield depth to rely on the younger guys while letting ozuna walk and dexter fowler gradually play himself into benching/retirement. not everyone agrees on that strategy but i actually think it will work.

harrison bader will start in CF, and is such a good fielder and runner that his floor is around 2 WAR even if his bat disappoints. he'll never be a great hitter because he's like that one guy in major league who can't hit breaking balls (dorne?) , but i think he suffered from some bad BABIP luck (his career worst, including minors) last year.

in LF they'll probably have tyler bro'neill start the year. despite striking out 30-40% of the time he still somehow projects as a plus player due to his insane strength and underrated fielding and running (i think he's in the top ten sprint speed last year?)

in RF fowler will begin the season as a starter and either bounce back to pre-2018 form (unlikely) or cede playing time to lane thomas and tommy edman while waiting for top prospect dylan carlson to arrive sometime in 2020.

obviously i've got my homer lenses on but it wouldn't be shocking to see both bader and o'neill put up 4+ WAR seasons, with carlson gradually entering the mix to add some stability.

randy arozarena was/is most likely a better overall player than bader or o'neill, so it was a bummer to see him go in the trade for liberatore.

BROCK HOLT

Brewers are only 4 starting pitchers away from being serious contenders

yeah forgot about carlson, he's legit. and o'neill will probably be better with regular playing time -- maybe he'll remember how to take a walk instead of trying to kill everything he sees

the obscenely early ZiPS projects provide a slightly different outlook than PECOTA, but still very close all around:

https://i.imgur.com/lzqLqT5.png

ZiPS sees the Cubs as the favorite to win the Central, but only by a small margin, unlike the projections from when they were serious World Series contenders. Something tells me that if the Cubs are out of money, they’d be more out of money winning 85 games than as one of the league’s first-tier contenders, but what do I know? I don’t even own a top hat or a monocle. The Reds are still projected to finish fourth, but only by the slightest margin. One thing that ZiPS can’t really take into consideration is that I expect Cincinnati to be extremely aggressive at the trade deadline if they’re close, more aggressive than the rest of the division and arguably with more interesting trade bait.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-obscenely-early-zips-projected-standings/

genuinely looking forward to a close division battle again this year

liberatore threw a beautiful overhand curve for a strike that had the batter bailing out, but then threw it again on the next pitch and gave up a triple. then he pretty much fell apart

Matthew Liberatores curveball is worthy of a nickname #stlcards pic.twitter.com/cTcfe93t5D

— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) February 24, 2020

kolten wong is sporting a pair of yellow/gold cleats, either in homage to mcdonalds or to his gold glove season. either way it's nagl

https://i.imgur.com/WRJbaXm.png

Main takeaways:
1. Dylan Carlson is very likely the Cardinals second-best outfielder right now.
2. Dexter Fowler's best fit is as 4th outfielder. https://t.co/xGsppe5zWk

— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) March 3, 2020

carlson looked a little sketchy in the outfield yesterday, but he's supposed to be at least average

it's going to be painful watching fowler keep the starting RF position all the way until early june. i've only seen a limited amount of carlson in the OF but he seems to hold his own. he also made a pretty difficult play up against the wall with gusting wind conditions the other day, and made it look pretty easy.

do all 5 teams have a fan in this thread?

technically, yes

if i had to guess, the number of people rooting for each team is roughly:

brewers: 2
cubs: 2
cardinals: 2 (now sure if bnw reads this)
reds: 2(?)
pirates: 1.5 (i think we're all sort of rooting for the pirates, in a way)

pretty good! i was gonna pick a team to be a fan of based on one of them having 0 fans but if that is not the case i'll just be a fan of all 5 except the cardinals

sorry km ily

if you don't care about the team winning, the pirates are a great team to root for! otherwise i think everyone (outside of this thread and earlnash) is gonna be rooting for the reds this year

xp cardinals nation will never forget your betrayal Will M! I am putting this on the agenda at the next nation meeting

er, my comment about the reds came out weird - i just meant that obv earlnash will be rooting for the reds, and i'd guess most people would generally cheer on the reds this year as well.

brewers. because i have the hat.

the brewers are a big reason i got back into baseball, so they always have a place in my heart. definitely interested in the reds this year, they look exciting, and votto remains an all-time fave. pirates are loveable hard-luck lozars. the cubs........... are a team as are the cardinals. i suppose i'll cheer for 3/5. cc me the minutes from the cards nation meeting!

yelich, brewers nearing $215m extension

9 years, apparently

Seems rather team friendly

would take him to 37? buys out his last 2 (i think) bargain years he's still under contract for. seems team friendly but at that length there's def some risk.

its significantly less than Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Machado, even though Yelich was MVP last year and would have been this year if not for a fluke injury with 3 weeks to go

obviously buying out the 2 years is a big deal but still, did not think this guy would go for less than 275m

significantly less than Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Machado

and he's far better than the last 3

yeah, brewers just got a decent deal for a franchise player (i think)

he was gonna hit free agency at 31, which is significantly older than those guys were. between that and the risk of injury, getting the guarantee seems wise, even if for less

wow, who knew a 'small market' team could afford such a thing

sometimes i remember when the Cubs turned aside Greg Maddux bc 5 yrs/$28 million was too much, and instead went for (*checks*) Jose Guzman, Dan Plesac, and Candy Maldonado.

yeah we really have the Marlins to thank for this

yairo munoz, mediocre utilityman who was lucky to get the chance to play as much as he did the last 2 seasons, quits cardinals and then gets released

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/cardinals-release-yairo-munoz.html

The Cardinals announced this morning that they’ve placed infielder Yairo Munoz on unconditional release waivers. The move leaves an opening on the 40-man roster.

In an important detail, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that Munoz “left the team, flew home” without notifying the Cardinals. Manager Mike Shildt told Goold and other reporters that Munoz frequently complained about playing time last season. That’s certainly an interesting twist to the story, and it seems clear that Munoz wasn’t released for any baseball reason, but rather as a result of his own decision to excuse himself from camp.

my partner made an observation that seems right: imagine being a very good baseball player that's just not quite good enough, taking it out on other people

“He’s got that China virus, honey.” @HarrisonCLee pic.twitter.com/5BIun7lqPn

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) March 18, 2020

i'm not sure if anyone but bnw remembers mark hamilton, but this is a cool story:

The Major League career of former first baseman/outfielder Mark Hamilton consisted of 47 games with the Cardinals in 2010-11, a brief stint that netted Hamilton a World Series ring for his role in the Cards’ 2011 championship squad. After being released by the Braves in July 2014, Hamilton stuck to his vow to go to medical school if he wasn’t a big league regular by his 30th birthday, and ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes that Hamilton is set to officially begin his medical career in June at two New York hospitals “at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.” Though Hamilton is trained in interventional radiology, the early days of his six-year residency program will inevitably be focused on helping treat coronavirus patients. While the pandemic has “been very eye-opening,” Hamilton said, “I wanted to go into medicine because I really enjoyed caring for people. I enjoy being able to help others when they’re in their darkest hour, when they need somebody to both support them from a medical side and an emotional side. And I’m definitely going to be able to do that in my first year.”

You know following the box scores of the Reds 2020 Strat-O-Matic season is about 60% as good as having them actually play. They play about the same.

https://redlegnation.com/category/2020-reds-season-strat-o-matic-simulation/

Standings following the April 27 games:
NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cubs 19 10 .655 0
Cardinals 15 14 .517 4
Brewers 13 15 .464 5.5
Reds 13 15 .464 5.5
Pirates 11 18 .379 8

I had no idea where else to post this, but this is fantastic:

When my dad became upset at the Cubs’ performance he would write other teams, offering to sign a contract as a free agent fan. Some teams wrote back to him. Here are some of their replies. pic.twitter.com/vNDbbBzMS9

— Don Kostelec (@KostelecPlan) April 30, 2020

ha! that's pretty awesome

https://i.imgur.com/n58kaL3.png

there's a schedule?

yeah, good question, i'm not sure how Dan Zips did it. They know 40 out of the 60 games will involve division rivals, so 10 each against those teams. the other 20 will be against the corresponding league's division - so 4 each against those teams?

Stratomat's standings playing out this season are not too different in the NL Central.

LEAGUE STANDINGS FOR 2020 Strat-O-Matic Season

AL East WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Tampa Bay TBA 50 33 .602 ---- 73
2020 New York (AL) NYA 42 40 .512 7.5
2020 Toronto TOA 38 44 .463 11.5
2020 Boston BOA 38 44 .463 11.5
2020 Baltimore BAA 33 49 .402 16.5

AL Central WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Cleveland CLA 51 31 .622 ---- 73
2020 Kansas City KCA 44 39 .530 7.5
2020 Minnesota MNA 42 41 .506 9.5
2020 Chicago (AL) CHA 38 45 .458 13.5
2020 Detroit DEA 32 50 .390 19.0

AL West WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Houston HOA 54 26 .675 ---- 74
2020 Oakland OAA 47 35 .573 8.0
2020 Los Angeles(AL) LAA 41 40 .506 13.5
2020 Texas TEA 32 51 .386 23.5
2020 Seattle SEA 29 54 .349 26.5

NL East WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Washington WAN 50 32 .610 ---- 75
2020 Atlanta ATN 44 38 .537 6.0
2020 Philadelphia PHN 39 42 .481 10.5
2020 New York (NL) NYN 39 43 .476 11.0
2020 Miami MMN 33 49 .402 17.0

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 St. Louis SLN 44 38 .537 ---- 81
2020 Milwaukee MLN 42 38 .525 1.0
2020 Chicago (NL) CHN 43 39 .524 1.0
2020 Cincinnati CIN 40 42 .488 4.0
2020 Pittsburgh PIN 34 47 .420 9.5

NL West WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Los Angeles(NL) LAN 53 29 .646 ---- 73
2020 San Diego SDN 45 37 .549 8.0
2020 Arizona ARN 41 41 .500 12.0
2020 Colorado CON 39 42 .481 13.5
2020 San Francisco SFN 32 50 .390 21.0


AL Wild Card Standings WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 Oakland OAA 47 35 .573 ---- 76
2020 Kansas City KCA 44 39 .530 ---- 79
2020 New York (AL) NYA 42 40 .512 1.5
2020 Los Angeles(AL) LAA 41 40 .506 2.0
2020 Minnesota MNA 42 41 .506 2.0
2020 Toronto TOA 38 44 .463 5.5
2020 Boston BOA 38 44 .463 5.5

NL Wild Card Standings WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2020 San Diego SDN 45 37 .549 ---- 80
2020 Atlanta ATN 44 38 .537 ---- 81
2020 Milwaukee MLN 42 38 .525 1.0
2020 Chicago (NL) CHN 43 39 .524 1.0
2020 Arizona ARN 41 41 .500 3.0
2020 Cincinnati CIN 40 42 .488 4.0

If I am wrong, I'm wrong but the last two times MLB had some work stoppage, the Reds were just good enough to get screwed out of playoff spot.

Last ride of the Big Red Machine in 81 in the strike year somehow got the best record in baseball and did not make the playoffs because of the weird split season playoff setup.

In the shortened 94 season, the Reds were freakin' crusin' at 66-49 when the season stopped and then got swept by the Braves in NL Championship '95 when they won it all. First two games of the sweep went into extra innings...oh well.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/

I can say without hyperbole that this may be the best rotation the Reds have had since the late 50s or early 60s when they had various combinations of Jim Maloney, Bob Purkey, Joe Nuxhall, and Jim O'Toole.

Reds project to have the best starting pitching in the NL Central (at #8 in MLB), with the brewers/cubs/cardinals clumped together in the middle of all of MLB (#15-17) and the pirates a little bit behind (#23)

lol

bench coach oliver marmol to take over in st louis, it seems

hmm, well, ok!

it's funny, i know next to nothing about marmol (or stubby clapp or pop warner) because the announcers rarely talk about them, and if they do it's just generic things like "well-respected" and "knows the minor leaguers well". i think 95% of the time marmol has been on the camera the last 3 years is when he on the phone with some mystery person to determine whether or not the replay challenge should be used

they kept the rest of the coaching staff though, except for shildt, and i think they added a hitting coach position this week. the general sense seems to be that they're moving toward the sf giants model of having more than a dozen coaches, more of an egalitarian approach? i don't know.

Notable picks for the #Cardinals in 2007, by round:

1st -- Pete Kozma
1st -- Clayton Mortensen
3rd -- Daniel Descalso
6th -- Oliver Marmol
24th -- Sam Freeman
26th -- Tony Cruz
38th -- Adron Chambershttps://t.co/tgxc8rUqqP #MLBDraft #MLB #stlcards

— Derrick S. Goold (@dgoold) October 25, 2021

pirates are ten games up on the cardinals for the first time since the end of the 1992 season

can't not cheer for the pirates

cardinals really having a tough one this year, lol. i've observed it all from more of a distance than normal. i watched or listened to every game last year, i think, and the vast majority of the games the last few years. i've missed almost all of them so far this year, for good reasons (just busy). it's been ugly.

if you think it's bad normally, cardinals fans are a fucking handful when the team is losing, and they haven't lost so much in a very long time. the fans freaking out is to be expected, but what's been unusual is to see the panic in the front office. they've made a series of baffling moves recently, strange in how they appear to be short-sighted in the near-term but also in the long-term.

the biggest wtf is how they're handling willson contreras. they just signed him to a 5-year deal to replace yadi. so far, he's been great. he's been one of the best hitters on the team, and although he's not yadi behind the plate - not prime yadi, but also not even better than molina in his beat-up final years - that expected. i'm not sure anyone thought he would be more than average-to-below-average, defensively. yet, 33 games into his 5 year contract, the team has decided to move contreras to DH and have even said he'll get time in the OF (where he's apparently played a couple hundred innings earlier in his career). backup catcher andrew knizner, who is the worst hitter the cardinals have had since pete kozma, and is a mediocre defender compared to kozma's well above average SS work, is now the starting catcher. an even worse catcher than knizner is now the backup catcher. contreras playing DH means that nolan gorman and juan yepez, the most natural DHs on the team, will either get less playing time and be forced onto the field more often. contreras playing OF makes a crowded talented OF situation even more crowded. why is contreras on this team if he's not playing catcher? he's a very expensive DH that prevents playing time for very talented pre-arbitration DHs.

anyway, it's kind of how this year has gone. i think they'll play + .500 the rest of the year, they might run off a winning streak and come back to near contention in the NL central, which has the best fans in baseball, but there's a good chance they'll be selling at the trade deadline for the first time that i can remember

Seeing as the Cards are 24th/30 in RA, it's most likely a reaction from the SPs and pitching coaches to get a better game caller/receiver behind the plate.

BRef* has his dWAR as exactly replacement level which echoes exactly how Cards management handled it, kept his bat in the lineup and got an above replacement level backstop and hopefully a better caller/receiver behind the plate. If Knizner nets out a lower ERA for the SP staff in spite of his weak bat, that could lead to more wins.

*https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/contrwi01.shtml

Posnanski had a column about the Cardinals and Yankees both being in last place the other day:

"OK, can we freeze the world for a moment here? I’m writing this on Cinco de Mayo, the morning of May 5, 2023, and as of this moment, the New York Yankees AND the St. Louis Cardinals are in last place in their respective divisions.

The last time this happened was never.

Don’t look it up. I didn’t. I’m just telling you, the last time this happened was never. The Yankees and Cardinals have never been in last place at the same time, not ever, I will not look at the comments, I will not let facts dissuade me, this is the first time it has ever happened, and it’s glorious."

There's a part of me that always roots for the Cardinals out of (admittedly long-distance, from-another-division) admiration. So I can't say I'm enjoying it.

what is up with arenado’s (lack of) hitting?

cardinals front office has a great track record, but this willson thing is a colossal fuckup

apparently they think his framing sucks? statcast has him in the 35th percentile for framing, but also says that it's cost st. louis . . . zero runs. (knizner is somewhat better -- he's saved a run! -- although it's offset by his abysmal 32 wRC+.) fangraphs actually has contreras as a positive defender!

in any case, none of this should come as a surprise to the club, against whom contreras has played 95 games in his career. if he can't frame, why did you give him $85m? he's certainly not worth that much at any other position

kinda feel like this is the cardinals pitching staff throwing a tantrum because it lost its binkie yadi. pitchers and teams have been successful with far worse catchers than willson; maybe just pitch better instead of scapegoating the new guy

cubs won a World Series with willson

Athletic says:

The Cardinals — in what is being deemed a long-term strategy to improve both inefficiency behind the plate and an underperforming starting pitching staff — have moved Contreras to the designated hitter role, revoking his starting catching duties for the time being. Their initial plan included Contreras playing some in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup. However, as of Sunday, the Cardinals have slightly reversed course.

“Obviously the Cardinals were used to one guy behind the plate for close to two decades,” Mozeliak said. “The nuances of that position, maybe very subtle, are what a lot of our pitchers were used to. What we were seeing was a lack of confidence. Normally, you would say, why didn’t you address this in spring training? But in spring training, it’s so different in terms of what people are trying to work on. Pitchers are going a couple of innings. It doesn’t really count.

“With this, we’ve noticed a lot of puzzling trends we know we need to fix. We know we need to address it. … We just decided to do it head on, put it out there. Do we think we’ve seen Willson catch his last game? No. But this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.”

last six games: rays/jays 37, pirates 7

Poor diplomacy from the Cards throwing Contreras under the bus. What has happened to these pirates?

Poor diplomacy from the Cards throwing Contreras under the bus. What has happened to these pirates?

Normally, you would say, why didn’t you address this in spring training? But in spring training, it’s so different in terms of what people are trying to work on. Pitchers are going a couple of innings. It doesn’t really count.

lol

it's nice to see it confirmed that six weeks of spring training is *so useless* that it can't even get pitchers and catchers 'on the same page'

xp the pirates are not actually good, that's all. but then neither is the rest of the NL Central

Reds don’t care, why should I care?

nl central should donate an extra playoff spot to the other 2 NL divisions

potentially we are just goofing this year

That is a very Cards excuse for sucking…Yadi’s gone like a neck tatted Yoda…hence we lose the force.

Cubs have just gone back to ‘we make far stacks whether we win or lose’.

...backup catcher andrew knizner, who is the worst hitter the cardinals have had since pete kozma...

Since getting the full-time job : 1.118 OPS/200 wRC+

totally sustainable right?

for a second, we all believed in pete kozma

i used to be a big knizner fan - he was projected as average defensively, an asset offensively. it was tough on his development to be a backup to yadi for 3 years. he spent a lot of that time in AAA playing everyday, though, and his projected + offense has always been very negative, and his defense isn't carson kelly level. ivan herrera is next in line, i expect him to take over the primary catcher position by 2024, maybe even later this year.

the contreras signing is a bad misstep if they don't keep him at catcher. the only possible way moving him off of catcher makes sense is if he truly is awful at gamecalling, and if that's the case, the cardinals need to keep up with the rest of mlb and figure out different ways to call the game. the rest of his defense is middling, which is fine -- they signed him to be average to below-average defensively, and well above average (for a catcher) offensively. that's exactly what he's done, so i don't understand destroying his value by making him a dh (blocking several equally good alternatives) and replacing his bat in the lineup with kozma

congrats to the pirates for reaching .500

usually this is a good thing! but instead they're on a 6-18 streak

nevertheless they're still only a game and a half back in the NL central! which is so bad yet notably better than the AL central

Reds are really trying pretty hard to get me to give a damn again.

Matt McLain looks like a goofball, but the dude is off to a nice start in the bigs.

I hate to say anything, as being a Reds fan has been like having a festering wound that won't heal right and itches like fxxx.

it isn't easy to start 20-8 and be under .500 on memorial day

Cubs 5 run lead over the cards in sunny London is just so gotdamn beautiful on Fox this afternoon, cheers!

wainwright is washed

Has been for a while, was only covered by that hot streak they had where they won a few games iirc