Irish politics discussion thread

aimless

housing is in an absolute mess.

anyone that owns is making out like a bandit, nobody paying rent can afford a deposit and any new stock coming on stream is snapped up by managed funds. standards can be very poor, and its damn near a return to tenements in areas of dublin

the govt has supported this because its core vote are propertied, and because the recovery from the property crash on paper continues for their historic supporters while a growing youth cohort (but not exclusively) struggles with very high rents and no availability.

the efforts to build are limp, visibly easily defeated due to a lack of govt will.

costs of living are high, standard of living has not improved and the prospects for people across the working/middle classes are dwindling

everything is in dublin, and all the associated commute and infrastructure stresses that brings as the remainder of the country becomes less and lesa viable

health is the usual state of affairs, but there is a cross-party plan in place that should run interrupted

brexit has gone away but isnt resolved in any way

national debt is still high and repayments on same are restrictive

the cost and availability of childcare is a big worry. both parents would tend to work, due to the cost of living

people from 40 down through college leavers are still feeling the effects of 2007 massively, and are being told to be patient.

homeless figures and causes are a matter of some contention but its bad and not going to improve while everyone from 60k earners down clamour for housing but no real effort has been made to build public stock. all public money poured into housing is in the form of direct payments to landlords, adding huge pressure to a burdened market to provide a solution that nobody asked for

even at figures nominally at full employment (worthless stat) the quality of work available to graduates and school leavers is following trends elsewhere, part time, low wage, dead end or serve-time jobs

this is a skewed-negative report, these are the issues as reported and any one of them is subject to the usual disputes i guess.

but FG in govt nine years effectively telling people that they have it grand, pay yr tax and pay yr rent (effectively a second ball of tax as its a direct transfer towards mortgages/bank debt) and stop eating avocado and someday we'll allow you to pay 400k for a flat you dont like in a place you dont like three hours from your job.

deputy leader of outgoing govt described voters as impatient today. nine years in office.

xp gyacs graph and that response above cover it

i don't know enough about the health plan in place, I know that the public have no faith in it but the parties all back it.

and maybe thats the underlier.

the voters do not trust the parties of state, with ample reason not to do so, and have moved kit and caboodle to an alternative.

What I'm hearing from you all is that the problems are very real, very deeply rooted and very distressing. But based on the electoral results so far, the parties of state do not appear to have been repudiated sufficiently to ensure that the next government will address these issues through radical reform. Good luck, Irish Republic.

xp speaking of that youth cohort it's surely worth noting that yr youngest voters not only grew up after but were born after the GFA, as far as the dwindling effectiveness of tarring SF with the paramilitary brush goes

Well part of the issue is that SF didn’t run enough candidates to take advantage of their polling. They did win 37/42 seats they contended though, which is unheard of as a %. I’m not sure what it would take to rout the big two - FF dropped to 20 seats only nine years ago but were back in government (albeit as junior partner) five years later.

tl;dr - the line about the Church always gets me

Also people continue to emigrate and I always wonder what our vote would look like if emigrants were included.

xp the move away from the ruling parties of our entire history as a nation has happened in the course of a decade, in the following traceable order

2012 party responsible for the crash falls to historic low vote share, their sworn enemies in in an historic landslide

2016 party responsible for the recovery took a hit for the decisions made and the slow progress, for the first time ever they enter a pact with party 1 above to keep govt stable. their vote share combined is falling

2020 main civil war parties have exhausted much of their political capital, and for the first time in the states history a third party stands a fair chance of controlling govt and electing a leader.

id say the repudiation has occurred, and not to underestimate the hold that civil war parties held until 2007, nor the significance of sf being the third party. the jump is not just one of normal political ideology and the risk is not just the normal risk of the untested.

whether the repudiation has moved the dial all that much on the political spectrum is to be seen, particularly if the govt formed nonetheless includes party 1.

but in the irish landscape, this is historic stuff and shockwaves will have significant effects in all three parties.

xp speaking of that youth cohort it's surely worth noting that yr youngest voters not only grew up after but were born after the GFA, as far as the dwindling effectiveness of tarring SF with the paramilitary brush goes

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 20:21 (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes, for good and ill. not all of sf vote is new nor young voters, theres plenty of republican votes there yet, and plenty that backed sf when the reasons not to do so were entirely real.

Well part of the issue is that SF didn’t run enough candidates to take advantage of their polling. They did win 37/42 seats they contended though, which is unheard of as a %.

― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 20:24 (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, of course- missed that completely ffs!

all indications are that SF could have landed sixty seats with their vote, and not the 38 or so that already represents a massive jump

its not the time for balance, unless its always the time for balance, bit set against many other places its obvious that ireland is still a massively privileged place in which to live and work, and that the structures set in place for opportunity to eg attend third level are world-class, that our health service, while always bulging and while non-essential (phrasing may be off here) waiting lists are huge and lengthy, actually sees pretty similar outcomes for serious illnesses and accidents between public and private patients etc

i dont say any of this to defend a particular political ideology etc, but im many years in a well funded public service working with good people doing good work and ive little time for disaster reports too

if regional development was prioritised and housing in tandem started coming on stream with protections in place that those without property had exclusive rights (not the current approach of boosting credit to them but making them compete), i really think we'd be one of the top places in the world to live very quickly again.

fg great sin is that housing can be a commodity but that it must be kept valuable for the deserving, ff great sin is that housing can be a commodity but that we can all get rich if its set up like a pyramid

neither even look like considering that they are completely wrong- not just incorrect, but wrong- on this

we await with some interest what sf great sin around housing will be.

theres a million holes in all of the above, im typing on a phone and things is moving very fast so take with pinches of salt and consider it a flavour analysis and not a reliable primer

Probably Modernist architecture xp

Greens now on 11!

Also 9 seats left to go and SF still in the lead!

but on the seismic change, perhaps if i put it in these terms: nb the substitutions aint perfect im trying to impress the effect not draw parallels

2012 crash. republicans lose in a landslide. hilarys dems get in.

2016: didnt work. hilarys dems get in again. bernie sanders runs as a separate party leader and polls enough that the republicans have to support the dems on programme for govt votes, because for once the loss in dem votes did not lead to a gop recovery

2020. bernie sanders party is the biggest of the now three significant parties in america, despite not running in all the states due to a clerical error. figures show that without this error he would dominate whatever ridiculous setup ye have that controls the money and the power. he might agree to a programme of govt with hilarys dems for stabilitys stake, but he wants to see if he can form one with the communist party of america firstx just for the lols.

in this scenario, bernie sanders party were killing nypd in the 90s and defend it today.

maybe that clarifies the kind of shift we're talking, idk

i gotta go eat

thrilled about the greens, and happy that soc dem and labour are showing a centre-left alternative maybe

There's a SD to come (he must be fairly edging it by now, he's 12 votes short) in Wicklow, and an Independent just went through in Sligo-Leitrim.

And from the other 7, if there's one each from Sligo-Leitrim and one each from Cavan-Monaghan, and if the Independent that's out in Wicklow doesn't give the Green more than 200 votes of a leg-up...

We'll have a three way tie for 37.

I don't actually think it'll work, specifically Cavan-Monaghan have three FF and one FG, and anyway I'd rather we get the 12th Green in Wicklow (Dublin South West gave up an 11th by the way, Labour->Green transfer of 2745 out of 5803)

oops xp to gyac!

best electoral system in the world, obv

Literally cannot believe this result.

Also how do you people manage to post like this at work? I spend my whole day in an abject panic about getting everything done!

I'm particularly bad at my job though...

Have enjoyed reading UK paper hot takes completely missing the fucking point

I mean, some of them would find it professionally unwise to admit that the left can be popular...

......fuckin superintendent wouldnt ask u that, plax

Also how do you people manage to post like this at work? I spend my whole day in an abject panic about getting everything done!

he must be fairly edging it by now

How is everyone in Wicklow not dead by now, how how howwwwww

factor in the commute

theyll be dead in another 40 mins

According to political pollster, Sean Donnelly, the shortest ever sitting TD was Sinn Féin TD Pierce McCann. He was a TD for Tipperary East from 21 January 1919 to 6 March 1919 - a total of 44 days. He never sat in Dáil Éireann as he was in jail and died aged 36 in prison from the flu.

Wicklow's going to a 15th count, but this one should be quicker - just the surplus from the SD candidate going in. The Green got boosted back to 5th, so it's just not losing the lead of 400 votes over the lesser FG.

So is it all handcounts for every iteration

Or hand-sorts more to the point

Yes

SD winner is Greystones, as are Donnelly and Harris. Green candidate is from Bray. Other FGer is from down-county. But at this stage in proceedings who knows.

There's probably some electoral strategy in play here but why didn't SF field more candidates than they did?

they thought they were defending seats, since this is unprecedented they don't have the backing to finance all the campaigns they want to just on the off-chance

their last showing (euro/locals) wasnt great, nobody had a notion this was coming.

lol @ that pallid tory boy on the bbc with middle class geordie accent saying the housing crisis in ireland is all because of rent controls, that'll be news to millions

jesus

anyroad, we have pretty much results, last two seats look FF bound

FF 38
SF 37
FG 35
IND 19
GP 12
LAB 6
SD 6
PBP 5
AON 1
OTH 1

those of you still getting used to the system will note that transfers are pretty influential, looking at that

FF as a party will go with SF but they might well lose TDs

Greens and SF "ought" to be included in any new govt, if that matters, but would the Greens be prone to flake a bit at compromise?

FF, minus ten odd meatloafs, plus SF, plus Greens, still calls for another 7 or 8 that might be got from INDS?

Better to go for LAB/SD than that latter?

questions questions questions

Green got the last seat in Wicklow, good stuff.

How do SF feel about the Trots

Have we any recounts yet? Feels unusual to wrap everything up in two days.

SF's former acquaintances commonly derided as Trots by the theoretically-orthodox Official IRA iirc

FF will win the last two I think but they’ll just be one seat ahead of SF. FG are two behind. 12 for the greens is incredible

theres a lot of good stuff happening

lets hope the govt formed wont stymie all enthusiasm

Slight double take in seeing my brother announced as a Fianna Fail TD for Wicklow. I must tell him in the morning

twas a fuckin major shock to the sd voters last time around when he announced it himself after a few months