Irish politics discussion thread

It's natural we're all on edge until xyzzzz__ returns with his thoughts.

ppl are allowed disagree, theyre even allowed be wrong

if im consistently anything its against this thread, which surely everyone will agree has been pretty fuckin excellent, following the path of other politics threads.

if that's not fair enough for you, i have nothing im afraid.

darragh what’s the read from your nearest-to-hand civil service lifers

darragh what’s the read from your nearest-to-hand civil service lifers

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 16:27 (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

.....cautious

my dept is old, conservative (dept characteristics, not individuals tbc) and not generally the type of culture where robust and lively discussion- esp around politics either ito held views nor ito current party political events- is a huge feature

one in four voters is each of a sf, ff, fg supporter, we are used to coalition but some of this is very new ground- i dont think its at all like being lab or tory voters under a roof, i don't think its at all like being dem or gop under a roof.

union, they should be expected to be friendly towards, but not in a ff "we'll sort ye out" way.

mgmt- they should be expected to be hostile towards.

they may be the first party from whom an approach to split the PS union by appealing to the popular frontline (nurses, teachers, guards, et al) while being their whip arm against the middle class admin might be expected.

i also think theres the makings of a post about the worry of exactly what sf attitude to the establishment infrastructure of the state might be. i havent gotten my own thoughts in order and in many ways they as a mover are to me a closed box.

if they get in with ff, i think that it might be play-nice as long as it lasts. maybe.

It's natural we're all on edge until xyzzzz__ returns with his thoughts.

― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 bookmarkflaglink

Once I figured out what the hell was going on with embeds the person deleted the tweet.

It was about Bono, that is all.

ill give another shout to get Fred B in here

Interesting how in the 3-way split opinion polls, political commentators overestimated FF converting their share of the vote into seats & underestimating SF

Current UCD predictions:

FF -39

SF - 37

FG - 36

GP - 12

Soc Dem - 6

Lab - 6

Sol/PBP - 5

Ind/Oth - 19#GE2020

— Nicola Ní Mhistéil (@serentrippety) February 10, 2020

46 for ff seemed high, but was noted as an upper limit. but it dropping to being that tight would be a surprise

greens will be absolutely ecstatic. kingmakers, with a chance they could even form with one other party?

lab and socdem occupy much the same left of centre political space afaict, a pitch to get those 12 seats wouldn't necessarily be out of any of the big threes reach either

those 24 projected seats could be lassooed handy enough in a stable package?

scratch that "could form with one other" comment, they cant, meant with just two of the others but that it would be very stable

I only comment on politics in countries I see films from. And I'm not sure I've seen an Irish film ever?

I enjoy lurking, really informative thread. Good work.

b for benediction, o joyous day

lol

SF elections mastermind Damhnaic 'O' Cummings will be wanting a word with you, darragh.

And I'm not sure I've seen an Irish film ever?

how is this possible?

Terrible man for the films, Fred.

What have I missed, Michael? And I don't count stuff like The Wind that Shakes the Barley, though I was honestly close to trying to explain pom the politics of Sinn Fein based on the landlord-in-court scene from that film.

SF elections mastermind Damhnaic 'O' Cummings will be wanting a word with you, darragh.

― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 17:05 (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

vaguely threatened by this

(Galway West FG TD on the 13th count) Hildegarde Naughton is a classically trained soprano, and in 2008 won the Association of Irish Musical Societies' Best Actress award for her role as Eliza Doolittle in the Galway Patrician Musical Society's production of My Fair Lady.

checks out

@Fred B

if youre looking for something about Irish politics/culture, you cant go wrong with the Rocky Road To Dublin documentary from '68

then theres the usual suspects: jim sheridan, neil jordan, lenny abrahamson

the quiet man

That's what I call Fred too.

ryans daughter
the field
darkman

Thanks Michael. I checked out their filmographies, and I have in fact wanted to watch Get Rich or Die Tryin' for a while.

the most Gaelic of the lot

Wait a minute, I watched Black 47 by Lance Daly at Berlin last year! That counts.

Sorry for the digression. Carry on.

this is an irish film i liked: https://www.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/sight-sound-magazine/reviews-recommendations/film-week-silence

lads

26 seats left to fill

i havent been at the tv all day, and the liveblogs available havent imo made a great job of spelling out what can or should go where in each remaining race, but the seat predictions last available reckon ff/fg split c.20 of them, and the rest pretty much go evenly to greens/sd/labour

id be very surprised if there arent inds, an sf, maybe a pbp in there somewhere but i really havent been keeping up tbh

Greens up to 4th of 5 in Dublin South-West, which has just put through a PBP candidate.

I'd like to do a study of what the average transfer pattern was for each party - but I'd like more if someone had already done it?

ill keep an eye out, i posted something that looked at SF total transfers to others last night late and im sure it will be available at some stage

id caveat an average tho, geography/local ground has been a major factor in transfers and parties have been surprised throughout by unpredictability

donegal is crazy tight

After the transfer of Harley's votes it's neck and neck at the top. Joe McHugh with a huge leap. Count 8 results.

McHugh +1932 10920
Pringle +514 10755
McConalogue +216 10270
Gallagher +628 10146

It all comes down to John O'Donnell's preferences @RTEDonegal #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/VMgpGsu1l7

— Oisín Bradley (@oisinbradley) February 10, 2020

If the music stopped right now, it'd be 2 each to SD / Greens / Labour, 4 each to FG and independents, and 12 to FF!

Now there's maybe a few constituencies where the FF in the medals might fall out because FG have ran three instead.

7000 independent transfers are about to hit that spread, incredible xp

FF wouldve been furious with < 50 seats on Wednesday last, i think

theyd take 37 right now i guess

Yeah, fair point about the averages

(connoisseurs of the partisan transfer might want to have a look at Cork East)

I'm more struck by the people I know who'd rather have set themselves on fire than vote Green after 2011, and whether that's mellowed - where are the Green transfers coming from, are there PBP/Green ballot papers?

best electoral system in the world, obv

green are taking them from everywhere imo

the conversation has moved forward

also, that green party was particularly dunderheaded in what it gained for supporting FF

frankly, labour had a lot better of a story to spin vs FF or greens ito what they sacrificed to stay in govt and what was gained, but they have been utterly passive ever since getting flung out and not turning over their candidates was a huge error.

i must try to see where they and the sd's differ or align, because thatvis exactly the type of energy and moves they shouldve been making, and the points and votes heading SF way now could imo quite plausibly have been in large part a labour surge this time round.

tldr- fuckin voters mayne they break yr heart

Dublin SW & Wickla in the verge of throwing us two more TDs is it? (Also, transfers aaaagh).

Two more Green TDs, I should say.

I remember it being said (possibly on this thread!) that if Labour wanted to stand for anything, they should have let FG run a minority government after 2011 rather than let FF don the robes of the official opposition.

im on the feckin bus ffs, keep me informed pls

lab shouldve left fg to it? i think their motives and beliefs were sincere and i dont know were they "wrong" but politically, eek gluck

looks like Pringle over Pat the Cope

jaysus

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Gallagher_(academic)

i think this is the glum/characterful prof from last night gyac, based on his voice on rte radio atm

he sounds much cheerier today but v affable, v easy to listen to

"best electoral system in the world, obv"

when some of the worst pundits in the UK are feigning confusion and saying it is inscrutable and bad then it must be good tbh.

The only news in the last half hour (apart from late-breaking Donegal xps!) is that Kerry's last seat went to FF and the third seat in Laois-Offaly went to Charlie Flanagan of FG. And now I'm getting on my bike.

Laois-Offaly is ALMOST always last, ye have to drag the fifth seat out of us. Insert your cruel joke about boggers here. Charlie can consider himself chastened for his RIC shite. Where is a good livestream for this that works on mobile? Donegal is due shortly after 7.

The FF transfer in Wicklow has pushed the Green to 5th of 5, and next up will be transfers from the lowest of the three FG* - if they were superhumanly scheming, the other two might get a chance? There's an independent to go next after, anyway.

* if we don't like Timmys, how do we feel about Billy Timmins, in many ways the opposite name?