Irish politics discussion thread

can we get fred in here dyou think

re leo, i guess the avocado is well and truly smashed now huh

(xp) I think.

tom what think ye of the shinner surge and will it hasten the 75 county republic

Now just where does that figure come from

zombie Michael Lowry still topping the poll in Tipperary

― seandalai, Sunday, February 9, 2020 8:22 PM (nineteen minutes ago)

A winner in Tipp since '97

Know nothing about the SF outside the North tbh, they're pretty shitty there, though look at what they're up against ffs. The formation of the New Republic to be timed to coincide with 10-in-a-row or gtf.

xp i have no idea how many counties we would divide the uk into silby, apologies i just threw that out there

sf policy in ni since brexit has been to not be there afaict

Isn’t it 74 darragh
https://i.postimg.cc/CLK40nCh/654-B45-F2-B647-417-E-B1-ED-673-AB8-FC766-A.jpg

Well they managed not to be in Stormont for long enough.

pleased to read former ilxor the DIRTY VICAR* note that all Irish political parties that aren't SF or the greens**, either (1) split from SF, or (2) descended from splittists, or (3) merged with splittists

*i can't vouch for his facts but i love to see it all the same
**someone on the thread notes that their dad split from SF and joined the greens so maybe this merger than implicates the greens also

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar fails to reach the quota by 20 votes on the 4th count.

“You’re pizza is going to be gone cold by the time this is over,” he says to reporters. #DublinWest #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/45Qdp6d3ja

— Áine McMahon (@AineMcMahon) February 9, 2020

don't think 74 can include scotland (33) or wales (10) tho deems is correct that a redivision wd be fun and fair

*cough* Cornwall

I've not seen it linked (and it's a little harder to find than I'd like), but here's RTE's site:

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national

i will not today be taking a position on cornwall, thank you all for your time, no further questions

tbh 75 wasnt a bad guess so

af, just searching rte will surely lead you not to miss it?

Pah, Leo is a little baby, Micheál Martin is still unelected after five counts.

I'm in no way impartial but there is literally nothing in the UK system to match the sight of these titans getting closer and loser to the line, like Zeno's paradox.

(letting the typo stand seems fair)

dm, there's no link to it from the big 'Live' stream, which seems odd.

pleased to read former ilxor the DIRTY VICAR* note that all Irish political parties that aren't SF or the greens**, either (1) split from SF, or (2) descended from splittists, or (3) merged with splittists

*i can't vouch for his facts but i love to see it all the same
**someone on the thread notes that their dad split from SF and joined the greens so maybe this merger than implicates the greens also

― mark s, Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:52 (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

gyac do we agree that this is at the very least an angle as opposed to a fact, or dyou concur

frank flannery, no disinterested party obv, took an interesting tack earlier today on tv when he walked through how it was fg at every stage that brought the parties involved in paramilitary activities in from the cold, so it could be argued that sf might claim to be the only and original, but certainly the other two parties will have their own original/legitimacy story

seeing as sf are seeking to enter govt in the 33rd dáil id say theyve agreed to a certain extent that theyve joined the legitimate fold, or at least the point is moot

theres a very strange eye of the storm quality about this moment, from when it became clear that sf were going to absolutely thunder home until theyd essentially spent themselves as far as the candidates theyd run are concerned

in other systems, that momentum would be expected to continue, but we know what the limit is and are waiting for this mad thrashing to cease, and wait for what beasts will win the second stage fight over the scraps sf will leave behind, which will almost certainly be the actual substance of the result

best electoral system in the world, obv

Actually yeah there is something hilarious about Micheál Martin struggling for quota when he’s been elected on the 1st count since 1997.

don't think 74 can include scotland (33) or wales (10) tho deems is correct that a redivision wd be fun and fair

― mark s, Sunday, February 9, 2020 12:59 PM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

scotland is 32 counties iirc. two 32 county republics by 2030, hwfg

32 local government counties, 33 land registration counties, 34 historical counties

https://i.imgur.com/LqBEHZL.png

why jim are ye busy next week?

Leooooooooo!

meeecccchhkaawwwwl!

latest seat projection should maybe bring home to anyone who might not appreciate how much transfers will affect things:

ff 45, sf 37, fg 36

Izzat 37 seats out of 42 candidates mustered?

I'm not going to pretend I know anything about anything (I don't even know who my Irish friends/relatives/inlaws would be voting for) but I've been enjoying watching people get excited on twitter today

even if the post-transfers numbers will be a lot less exciting it's nice to see a better election system in operation

well, good luck everyone

Izzat 37 seats out of 42 candidates mustered?

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Sunday, 9 February 2020 21:55 (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes

this may drive home how unexpected this has been

xp ty aps

i dunno how clear or otherwise ive been about my personal feelings about the rise of sf, but i spose "excitement" is valid, yes

It’s a bit of a redundant point given seat totals above, but FG will absolutely not govern in any capacity with SF. It says a lot about how the two big post civil war parties were able to knock together a confidence and supply; they don’t have enough overlap in voters to threaten each other.

Their aversion to SF has a lot to do with their voter coalition; a lot of your present day FG voters are yr affluent middle aged Dubliners who are outright partitionists, even if they would not consider themselves as such. NB as I keep saying I haven’t lived in Ireland for over a decade so my interpretations may be pretty stale. The partitionist aspect is important - a lot of them see NI as messy and not part of us and they’re too different to have anything but antipathy to SF’s raison d’être.

Whereas FF have always been a lot more republican, they even have the byline The Republican Party. They opposed the Anglo Irish agreement in the 80s because it was seen to move away from the long term view of a United Ireland (articles 2&3 of the constitution, subsequently amended)& while they were eventually the ones who got the GFA over the line, they still remain much more republican in their outlook. Even if the past twenty years of consensus have softened a lot of views on the national question.

Economically too, as deems said, FF are much more inclined to spend than the fucking Blueshirts (I grew up reading about them planning to tax children’s shoes!) and this is more in line with SF’s views too. SF probably think, correctly, that FF are the most likely to give them a border poll. The personal factor here is that Micheál Martin, the current leader of FF, would be the only leader of his party not to become Taoiseach. There’s less of a taboo in going in with SF, maybe because of Charlie Haughey was implicated in gun running to the Provos back in the day (lol).

Think deems is correct FG would largely sit this one out and wait to get back in, we will probably have another election sooner rather than later lol.

Anyway tl;dr not sure if helpful or even true nowadays, but my understanding!

PS fuck the Blueshirts

that covers the essentials def, while certainly covering the personal angle also, irlxpol welcomes gonzo journalism imo

i break from the discussion to report that SF transfers, which are enormous in places, have been lifting pbp et al up into contention

deems, yes, sorry, that was a not very well thought-through word choice, although I've been seeing genuinely excited people on Twitter who I would previously have expected to have somewhat mixed feelings about such a thing, and had to some extent transferred that vibe onto my reading of this thread (wrongly)

fwiw the resident of spacecadet towers with a fada on his passport grumbled something untoward about all politicians from all parties, as he does for all elections in any country, the end

also thanks for the longer analysis gyac, sorry to butt in, butting out again

So Sinn Fein is now the largest party in Ireland, while Unionist parties are in the minority in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Get it up ye, Boris.

that covers the essentials def, while certainly covering the personal angle also, irlxpol welcomes gonzo journalism imo

i break from the discussion to report that SF transfers, which are enormous in places, have been lifting pbp et al up into contention

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQXjh-rU4AAOWzC?format=jpg&name=large

SF overperformed, FG underperformed the exit poll, FF pretty bang on?!

aps never apologise, i was clarifyin merely because it occurred to me i hadnt really noted (and may not) my full personal reaction itt to events

also as always, and i wont stop saying it, an aps post will be viewed as it ought, in the most positive possible light so please stay stuck in here

fuck theres michael mcgrath in, the first ffer to show signs of pugnacity after the crash, hate him

Yeah I saw a transfer left guide doing the rounds
― hyds (gyac), Sunday, 9 February 2020 23:07 (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

saw some controversial fb posts where some sf personalities were seen telling ppl to "vote sf then leave empty" but idk if that was true, or tampered- official message was vote left alright

very useful figure: accumulated transfers from sf

Text version of the latest #surpluswatch - after 13 constituencies, here's where the SF surplus went. #ge2020
PBP - 21700
IND - 9365
SD - 5330
GP - 5286
FF - 5122
I4C - 3646
Lab - 3143
SF - 2187
Aontu - 1900
FG - 1887
NP - 552
RN - 352
IFP - 340
WP - 299
UP - 97
NON TRANSFER - 28

— Sarah isn't here to debate you. (@froodie) February 9, 2020

quick approx count is 60k total if you want to do % analysis

aps never apologise, i was clarifyin merely because it occurred to me i hadnt really noted (and may not) my full personal reaction itt to events

also as always, and i wont stop saying it, an aps post will be viewed as it ought, in the most positive possible light so please stay stuck in here

fuck theres michael mcgrath in, the first ffer to show signs of pugnacity after the crash, hate him

wait did i

shurely not as strongly as ya did yerself anyways wha

frankly

that more ppl arent in here in fuckin AWE at the fuckin CRAIC that the count is is a crying shame

do we need to publicise more, or do they maybe not get it yet

i think silby shows promise, have you one you're sponsoring

29 sf
10 fg
10 ff
5 ind
4 gp
2 pbp
1 aon
1 sd

no labour seat yet

change in 2016 1st pref % for sf is +10.7

change including aontu would be well over 12%

frankly

that more ppl arent in here in fuckin AWE at the fuckin CRAIC that the count is is a crying shame

do we need to publicise more, or do they maybe not get it yet

i think silby shows promise, have you one you're sponsoring