The NBA trade deadline's biggest winners and losers
Kevin Pelton
ESPN Senior Writer
Who won and lost the 2020 NBA trade deadline?
A quiet lead-up to the deadline ended with a few major moves -- including Andre Iguodala joining the Miami Heat, the Golden State Warriors trading D'Angelo Russell to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Marcus Morris Sr. boosting the LA Clippers' wing rotation.
So, which players and teams were impacted the most? What has changed about this title race and future ones? And which teams could regret not making a move?
Let's take a look across the league.
Winners: LA Clippers
Losers: Los Angeles Lakers
Somewhere in between: Milwaukee Bucks
Of the three teams with the best odds of winning the 2020 NBA championship, only the Clippers made a trade Thursday, and it helps solidify them as the favorites to win the Western Conference. Reportedly, the Clippers and Lakers went head-to-head to acquire Marcus Morris Sr. from the New York Knicks, with the Clippers prevailing.
Morris looks built to play in a possible Hallway Series between the two L.A. teams -- which wouldn't take place until the Western Conference finals if current seeding holds -- because of his combination of knockdown 3-point shooting (44% this season, 37% career) and defensive versatility at 6-foot-8, 235 pounds. Morris would have strengthened either the Clippers and Lakers, but only one of them could land him.
It could certainly be argued that the Clippers, three games back in the standings of the first-place Lakers, had more need for a midseason deal. But the Lakers still have to figure out exactly who will be part of their closing five-man lineups and have lost both head-to-head meetings. Given the urgency to win while LeBron James remains one of the NBA's top players, I would have parted with Kyle Kuzma (a questionable fit playing alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron) if that's what it took to get Morris.
NBA trade deadline: Latest news, intel and grades
There still might be one more Clippers-Lakers battle to come off the court, as they both hope to sign free agent point guard Darren Collison, who's 50-50 to play this season, according to former teammate Matt Barnes on ESPN's The Jump Thursday. The Clippers opened up a roster spot by trading guard Derrick Walton Jr. to Atlanta, while the Lakers could create one by waiving injured center DeMarcus Cousins.
As for the Bucks, they too were quiet at the deadline, counting on the strength of a roster that's off to an NBA-best 43-7 start. While a stronger Clippers team hurts Milwaukee's title odds, the good news is that the other East contenders made relatively minor additions (Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill and Andre Iguodala to Miami and Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III to Philadelphia). The Bucks should still be heavy favorites to win the East.
Winners: Miami Heat
Though I don't think it necessarily threatens Milwaukee, the Heat's trade was still one of the deadline's better pieces of business.
Miami upgraded its depth with three newcomers while shedding the unwanted contracts of James Johnson and Dion Waiters and preserving cap space for the summer of 2021, when Giannis Antetokounmpo is the biggest name among a much deeper crop of potential free agents than this summer's group. The Heat can contend now without sacrificing a promising long-term vision.
Losers: 2020 free agents
On the flip side, players headed to free agency this summer had a rough week. Before this week, three teams projected to have max-level cap space: the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies. All three ended up making deals that could reduce their flexibility.
Because Atlanta had so much cap room in the first place, the Hawks will still have max-level space even after adding centers Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon, but not the massive $70-plus million they could have had. Memphis will probably not use cap space at all after taking back Johnson and Waiters along with Justise Winslow in the deal with Miami. And Cleveland added center Andre Drummond, who will swallow up the Cavaliers' space if he either picks up his 2020-21 player option or re-signs in free agency.
The Drummond trade did make the Detroit Pistons max-level players in free agency this summer, but on the whole, teams seem to be responding to the weak market by prioritizing players under contract rather than big plans for this summer.
Winners: Teams fighting for No. 8 in the West
Besides taking on money for 2020-21, the Grizzlies also weakened their chances at hanging on to the final playoff spot in the West by dealing away two contributors. Memphis did add center Gorgui Dieng, who figures to back up Jonas Valanciunas with Jaren Jackson Jr. now playing exclusive at power forward, but the team has less depth at small forward until Justise Winslow is able to return from a lower-back injury that has limited him to one game since Christmas.
The Grizzlies are three games up on the Portland Trail Blazers with 31 to play, but must navigate the NBA's most challenging schedule over that span, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index. Both projections based on BPI and FiveThirtyEight's predictions make Portland, which should get starting big men Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic back at some point before the end of the season, the favorite to finish eighth. FiveThirtyEight also gives a reasonable chance to the New Orleans Pelicans, currently six games out of eighth. The Pelicans have the West's easiest remaining schedule.
Losers: James Wiseman
As my colleague Jonathan Givony pointed out on Twitter, the Capela and Drummond trades also potentially took two teams out of the market for a center like Wiseman near the top of this year's draft. If the season ended today, Cleveland would be second entering the lottery and Atlanta third, so there's a chance both land top-four picks. Both would have been reasonable Wiseman destinations.
There are still other possibilities for Wiseman, including the Golden State Warriors (who have the league's worst record) and now the Pistons (eighth-worst). Additionally, the Cavaliers in particular might still draft Wiseman if they believe he is the best player available, since Drummond can be a free agent this summer. But Wiseman's draft stock looks somewhat more uncertain than it did at the start of the week.
Winners: Minnesota Timberwolves
Having gone 5-27 after a 10-8 start, the Timberwolves needed some reason for hope. Finally landing All-Star point guard D'Angelo Russell to team with his friend Karl-Anthony Towns provides a light at the end of the tunnel. Minnesota's roster was ill-suited for the Houston Rockets-style offense Ryan Saunders was playing under former Houston executive Gersson Rosas, and this week's pair of deals -- one of them involving the Rockets -- dramatically improved the team's shooting with the additions of Russell, Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez.
It's unrealistic to expect an immediate turnaround for the Timberwolves, who still figure to struggle at the defensive end of the court. But given how far Minnesota had fallen, including 17 consecutive losses in games played by Towns, it won't be hard for things to get better.
Losers: Non-taxpaying teams
The Timberwolves' trade with the Warriors managed to take Golden State out of the luxury tax, which the Rockets also avoided with their deal earlier in the week. Miami and Portland also mentioned to decrease their tax bills, meaning at this point the projected total tax bill for all 30 teams is just $12.6 million. Typically, 50% of that amount is split among the non-taxpaying teams, which would be a distribution of a little less than $250,000 per team. By contrast, last season's distribution was $3.1 million per team according to my colleague Bobby Marks.
The small distribution helps explain why teams near the tax line -- most notably the Oklahoma City Thunder -- didn't feel more urgency to get under it entirely. Minnesota also ended in the tax after the Russell trade, though the Timberwolves and Thunder could yet avoid it if they waive a player before the end of the season who is claimed by another team.
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 February 2020 00:48 (four years ago) link