It really isn't WTF. Imagine you're a 20-something junior officer in an air-defence unit armed with the short-medium range Tor system, tasked with defending the two military facilities a few km NNW of Parand, Iran (one being a missile research facility). Perhaps your CO has gone to bed, leaving you on the night shift. You've received a message to be vigilant for US bombers, following the assassination of a national hero, and a symbolic retaliatory strike. Unfortunately, the two military facilities you're tasked with guarding lie directly under the flight path from Khomeni Intl airport to destinations NW. Also unfortunately, your training emphasized autonomous action, as centers for air-defense coordination were expected to be among the first targets. Scheduled traffic flying over your location went barely noticed earlier in the evening, but here comes a new blip (PS752 took off an hour late). Its tracking directly towards the facilities you guard. Because the Tor is a short range system, and aircraft launching guided bombs rise into a climb before releasing and turning away, you have maybe 2 minutes to determine that this radar blip is not a threat. You have no means of directly contacting the plane. Assuming that there's a hotline to Tehran regional ATC, you could call them to deconflict, but what if you don't have a hotline, have never called ATC, or Tehran ATC doesn't answer in time, or Tehran ATC can't confirm that this incoming plane is a civil flight in time. Sweat is beating on your brow.
This sort of shit happens all the time in wartime. Returning WWII bombers were commonly fired upon by jumpy flak batteries when they flew unexpected paths etc. The speed of modern aircraft radically shortens decision times, guided air defense missiles makes mistakes far more lethal. It takes a lot of coordination and experience to prevent friendly or collateral fire incidents.
― Now We Know (Sanpaku), Sunday, 12 January 2020 04:56 (four years ago) link
Well, whatever the technical reasons I don’t think one can say they managed all this « really well » after such a disaster...
― AlXTC from Paris, Sunday, 12 January 2020 06:21 (four years ago) link
Imagine you're a 20-something junior officer in an air-defence unit armed with the short-medium range Tor system, tasked with defending the two military facilities a few km NNW of Parand, Iran
mmmm, what am I wearing
― Suggest Banshee (Hadrian VIII), Sunday, 12 January 2020 15:09 (four years ago) link
lol
― k3vin k., Sunday, 12 January 2020 15:21 (four years ago) link
lol x2
― Frozen Mug (Tom D.), Sunday, 12 January 2020 15:24 (four years ago) link
<3
― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Sunday, 12 January 2020 16:27 (four years ago) link
It takes a lot of coordination and experience to prevent friendly or collateral fire incidents.
The Iranian authorities should simply have closed Iranian air space to commercial flights for 24 hours after their missile strike at Iraq, to assess the US response. This is, ofc, hindsight.
― A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 12 January 2020 19:14 (four years ago) link
@Sanpaku what's a good source for this kind of information?
― Never changed username before (cardamon), Sunday, 12 January 2020 23:05 (four years ago) link
do you have “war nerd” in an unfilled square on your bingo card or something
― El Tomboto, Sunday, 12 January 2020 23:18 (four years ago) link
Only a glaring lack of knowledge about contemporary surface to air missile systems
― Never changed username before (cardamon), Sunday, 12 January 2020 23:45 (four years ago) link
cardamon: with respect to the shootdown site, in satellite imagery there's two fenced military sites directly underneath the PS752's intended flight path, just 7 km NW of the impact location determined from the cell-phone video. On the @bellingcat twitter thread this was identified as a missile research facility but I don't have independent knowledge. Munitions bunkers are visible in the northern of the two fenced areas.
As for the life of a SAM operator, I'd direct you to SAM Simulator, developed by a Hungarian. It doesn't include SA-15/Tor, but presumably the experience is comparable. Public data for the Tor missile system is available at a Wiki page. It's very short range point defense as vehicle mounted SAMs go, only 12 km.
As for a timeline of Iranian actions, you could do worse than this Al Jaz English timeline. Probably more reliable than Al Jaz Arabic, where calls for all Shia to be massacred have gone out from on air commentators.
― Now We Know (Sanpaku), Monday, 13 January 2020 00:18 (four years ago) link
Awesome, thanks
― Never changed username before (cardamon), Tuesday, 14 January 2020 21:20 (four years ago) link
Does anyone have a take on what's the future of this Shia crescent idea - are the Iranian government still trying to create a land link with Hizbollah? Were they in fact doing so as per the BBC doc on Soleimani?
― Never changed username before (cardamon), Tuesday, 14 January 2020 21:22 (four years ago) link
The US government certainly fears this. Some US spec ops that remain in Syria are astride Hwy 2 through Syria's Eastern desert, presumably to interdict this land route from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. The area is uninhabited (as in 200 mi to the next gas station uninhabited), has no oil, no surface water, there's literally nothing else of strategic interest in the area. Iran certainly has good practical cause to want this land connection, to facilitate logistics and trade with Syria and Lebanon.
Last night I listened to a podcast with Armin Navabi in which he said even secularist Iranians are fond of the idea of such a Shia crescent, as it would match the contours of the Sasanian Empire. According to Navabi, Iranian secularists have a romantic affection with pre-Muslim Persia, collecting Zoroastrian, Ancient Persian, Parthian, and Sasanian artifacts (all empires that encompassed a current Shia crescent). Also Trump's tweet about bombing 52 cultural sites was the absolute worst thing he's said or done with respect to these natural opponents of the mullahs.
― Now We Know (Sanpaku), Tuesday, 14 January 2020 21:58 (four years ago) link
so maybe it wasn't a strike carefully calibrated not to hurt any americans
BREAKING: Eleven US Troops Were Injured in Jan. 8 Iran Missile Strike https://t.co/ffcpz4AuUh via @defenseone— Kevin Baron (@DefenseBaron) January 17, 2020
― Mordy, Friday, 17 January 2020 06:25 (four years ago) link
Loud blasts followed by sirens were heard in the Iraqi capital. The Iraqi military told Reuters that two rockets had fallen inside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign missions, causing a fire but no casualties. At least one fell 100 meters from the US embassy.
― calzino, Monday, 20 January 2020 21:48 (four years ago) link
Whodunit
― Never changed username before (cardamon), Monday, 20 January 2020 22:27 (four years ago) link
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/01/22/Basij-militia-commander-killed-in-Iran.html
― Mordy, Wednesday, 22 January 2020 19:05 (four years ago) link
Power moves in a power vacuum I reckon?
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 22 January 2020 20:40 (four years ago) link
the arab minority in south-western iran is a bit restive, there's been attacks on military etc. last few years. there was a massacre of troops in maybe 2018 for instance.
― bidenfan69420 (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 22 January 2020 20:56 (four years ago) link
it's such a closed society if you took the regime's word for it there are no problems their grip is total etc
― Mordy, Wednesday, 22 January 2020 21:03 (four years ago) link
'Sanctions' is a polite way of describing a brutal form of collective punishment that intentionally decimate entire societies. https://t.co/qKMzHCXzi0— Louis Allday (@Louis_Allday) January 15, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 23 January 2020 10:28 (four years ago) link
The Defense Department said Friday that 34 American service members have traumatic brain injuries from Iranian airstrikes on Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, contradicting President Trump’s dismissal of injuries among American troops this week.
― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Friday, 24 January 2020 23:23 (four years ago) link
Well, they were only injured in the brain, which he assumes to be a nonessential body part
― Okay, you're an ambulance (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, 25 January 2020 05:48 (four years ago) link
brains are what bored people came up with to explain instinct
― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Saturday, 25 January 2020 05:50 (four years ago) link
The brain is the most important organ - according to the brain
― Okay, you're an ambulance (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, 25 January 2020 05:55 (four years ago) link
Brain and brain, what is brain?
― Darth Bambi (Sanpaku), Saturday, 25 January 2020 19:06 (four years ago) link