Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

South Carolina:

Biden 38.3%
Sanders 13.9%
Warren 10.0%
Steyer 5.9%
Buttigieg 5.2%
Bloomberg 3.8%
Booker 3.4%
Klobuchar 2.7%
Yang 2.7%
Gabbard 1.9%

gotta say I really thought Biden's numbers would have tailed off a lot more by now

lots can still happen folks, a lot of people (the sane ones) aren't even paying any attention till there's like two weeks to go

yeah I mean

Biden will not be nominated, bcz i would start smoking crack

Bernie raises $35m, $10m more than ex-Mayor Pete without a wine cave https://t.co/4c7VQCJLSH via @WSJ

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) January 2, 2020

fifteen minutes away from 15k

round numbers are strangely seductive, but seldom meaningful. btw, I didn't lock the old one, but it's always good to have a link to the previous thread, somewhere near the top of the new one.

whereas I think there's a significant % of Warren's support that won't go to Sanders

imo nah

Where's the new voter registration forms?

i think most of the non-progressive warren voters have already left for buttigieg tbh

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

If Warren drops out before the primary hits my state, it'll be Bernie.

at some point I became a Sanders voter, because, I figured, why fuck around?

basically

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:21 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

whats important is who wins delegates and by how much. iirc (and plz correct me if im wrong bc i cant remember where i saw this) you need to win at least 15% of a state's votes to be awarded a portion of the state delegation. i assume buttigieg can clear that in IA and NH, but after that?

so its (probably) a three-way race between biden, sanders, and warren. of the candidates who are likely to actually win delegates, the sanders+warren contingent could be larger than the biden delegation.

the thing that gives me hope is that A) Sanders is raising a ton of cash and B) he's way more persuasive and less error-prone than Biden so yeah once people actually do start paying attention I can see Bernie gaining more ground

on the occasions I have talked to ppl who are less psychotically aware of The Discourse, when I bring up Sanders, ppl tend to assume he's way behind in polling. I'll be curious to see whether the increasing acknowledgements in the press that this is not the case, nothing his donation figures etc will have an effect.

February 3, 2020: Iowa caucuses
February 11, 2020: New Hampshire primary
February 22, 2020: Nevada Democratic caucuses
February 29, 2020: South Carolina Democratic primary

biden is going to walk this

If so, and he does look more likely than anyone else atm, then we must be prepared for a hard-fought election pitting Donald Trump against Hunter Biden, HRC, Obama, and Pelosi, which will resolve nothing, even if Joe Biden wins it. The Republicans in Congress would breathe a short sigh of relief, then go back to full obstruction mode.

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_presidential_nomination,_2020

there's finances from last quarter below. jesus, buttigieg has raised a lot of money. biden is 5th in cash on hand and individual contributions.

buttigieg has raised a lot of money, but he still has serious black voter credibility problems and Super Tuesday distributes a lot of delegates from the south.

February will definitely reset the table.

I still hate that a state that has fewer people living in it than my county, and is 94% white, gets such a disproportionate say in this process. Fuck a New Hampshire.

can we shut this thread until February?

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

not really, but what if that happened in january? we sure would be glad to have this thread then!!

this all is finally, actually happening huh

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

Karl was "joking"

it was one of those learning jokes that makes you appreciate the existence of the thread you're in. ...right?

*ducks*

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

― Briania, Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:55 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i live in south tx, i have seen maybe two biden stickers. lots of bernie, couple pete, lots of beto, few warren, couple yang

where beto voters break in tx is gonna be interesting/determining. only one post-beto poll in tx and it broke heavily for biden. i assume tx castro voters are going warren or sanders, but thats still a small number

is there any study saying "signage = traction" or is it just something we do

house with Cory Booker in several windows

^^Underrated Giallo.

its a thing we do

xp

Why because it's intersting. All it means on a local level is that Biden's people haven't got their signs out yet. The Abby Finkenauer endorsement is more significant.

Marianne Williamson, who has been campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination on a message of love and has been urging voters to “join the evolution,” has laid off her entire staff in New Hampshire and nationally, sources close to the campaign confirmed to WMUR on Thursday.

i thought she dropped out weeks ago

just proves that love is worthless

Williamson raised her national profile for her business, which is basically herself talking or writing books, so she has already met her most basic objective in running.

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, January 2, 2020 3:55 PM (forty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Chapo Policy Insitute, Left Dakota

lol C Grisso

Marianne Williamson, who has been campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination on a message of love and has been urging voters to “join the evolution,” has laid off her entire staff in New Hampshire and nationally, sources close to the campaign confirmed to WMUR on Thursday.

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:19 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

fucking AT LAST

surprised that MW had a staff

After Gillibrexit and Go'Rourke, the best I could do was CastrAu revoir.

"So Long, Marianne" is trending.

Then it's a waiting game to see whether we can make Klobucharrividerci happen.

surprised that MW had a staff

― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, January 2, 2020 3:50 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

one good grift deserves another

as con artists go, she almost outlasted Booker

Underrated Giallo

arf

from the other thread:

i was very bummed to learn that my otherwise super-cool east coast in-law family is also rooting for biden, pete, and bloomberg (they used to work for bloomberg when he was mayor, so at least i can sort of understand that one i guess). what's esp frustrating about their stance is that they say they really want medicare for all, student loan forgiveness, etc etc, but think the most important thing is electability and making sure democrats nominate someone who can beat trump
SIGH
― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, January 2, 2020

I think this is where I find myself tbh. I am so angry right now. I just really want the democratic nominee, whoever it is, to WIN.

yang first in with the hot take

War with Iran is the last thing we need and is not the will of the American people. We should be acting to deescalate tensions and protect our people in the region.

— Andrew Yang🧢 (@AndrewYang) January 3, 2020

many xposts obv

Sinatra hated My Way fyi

Nobody has two votes so nobody's wrong?

Ever?

ever ever?

(Well, I had three votes for Bernie but that's just because two of my dead grandparents were still on the election rolls.)

A worthwhile look at some of what went on behind the scenes in the Warren camp.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/warren-team-wonders-how-they-blew-it-122628

Meanwhile, in FL, a Republican commits fraud on 119 voter records

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/lake/os-lk-voter-fraud-lake-county-cheryl-hall-20200305-42stwdmc65g77aob3ennsmgeay-story.html

xp: The lesson for me would be: the Democratic election is a decade (or longer) affair. Develop personal relationships with African American House members. They're way more important than any number of plans, as there aren't enough wonks in the electorate.

No one, ever.... is to blame.

No one's ever wrong, no one's ever to blame, it just didn't work out between me and you, babe - ain't it a shame?

There are no mistakes in love

You can look at the menu
But you just can't eat

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/83/DwightYoakamBlametheVain.jpg

The AP on Sanders' strategy or lack thereof: https://apnews.com/d84e7134e893f67b2f3751a2a581a9a2?fbclid=IwAR3IwQXK7PCVqSVpx2Th3KqjPFCqLy_pwI9yeRcE7ycfAnSPGFvBq9_OO5U

Featuring political advice from Marianne Williamson.

And apologies if this is posted upthread and I missed it, but Nate Silver is raining on Bernie's parade.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/

I hope the new touchscreen voting machines make it easier for me to do a write-in than when I had to spin a wheel for each letter.

Pretty sure there's been no bernie parades since tuesday

Damn, Michael Harriot is not pulling punches here

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419

This is sobering, the whole thread:

I've talked to TOO MANY black Southern voters this week (and during my life) I wanna stop and explain the concept of "the establishment" to some people and why a lot of black Southern voters will NEVER vote for Bernie.
— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, March 6, 2020 11:47 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

wait for it...

Admittedly, that comes with cynicism.
Here is an example:

1 woman told me that Bernie is too "obsessed" with M4A. She believes he'll sell anything out to get it done. Then she shocked the f*ck out of me by explaining something I had never heard of.

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020

She explained that she had read Bernie's M4A plan and didn't like it because it would essentially eliminate private insurance. And, she said, negotiating prescription drugs removed financial incentives for innovating.

Turns out, she was retired from a medical company

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020

At least one of the people whose tweets he used is a black man.

Which is the awesome thing about making cases about what twitter proves - half the people are using funny avatars with the name of their favorite Sopranos character as a username.

The AP article quotes Deidre DeJear as a neutral party who just couldn't get the time of day from Sanders... she was Kamala Harris's Iowa campaign chair.

that tweet (I think I know what you are referring to) was to highlight super progressive black youth as also being dismissive. I kind of got tripped up on it too at first.

but I am also really anti-any place using twitter as a source unless that person is fact-checked as existing.

that's my defense

The foundation of democracy is that an individual vote is always morally valid. People can be stupid, but not “wrong.”

The results - the electoral college choosing the less popular candidate, the winner using his seat for disgusting emoluments, Stephen Miller and his ilk running the NSC - can be morally abhorrent. But the individual voters are not wrong. Misinformed, uneducated, disengaged, maybe, but not wrong. The vote is a private choice and sacrosanct; that is the ideal of democracy.

is it time for a new thread?

Certain posters’ inability to comprehend this is most likely due to a blessed distance from political science classes, which I respect and admire, in a way.

we’re not even to 10,000 posts dude

it feels like a major crossroads in the campaign and now we can poll the final 2

u r otm about the vote btw

"You can demean them as human beings but never say they're wrong" is batshit insane.

"Wrong" choices have nothing to do with "moral validity." There's nothing "morally invalid" with risky sex - but herpes follows you for the rest of your life.

rmde but I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you don't understand how voting works, since you don't understand how elections work either

Herpes 2020.

Frankie baby!

this is probably our silliest argument yet (today)

get in here, goons
2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

good night and good luck

Milo has herpes?