US Politics, December 2019: Profound procedural deficiencies

I'm feeling slightly better about a possible Senate majority but it would still shock me if it happened.

It is, however, likely that Pelosi and the House Dems will remain in charge.

the AL race is gonna be crazy. Sessions will get the nom but Trump hates him/considers him a traitor and then there's Li'l Doug and his army of black women that just *miiiiiight* get him the margin

It's being reported (fwiw) that Trump, primed to have the senate "exonerate" him, is really jonesing to get the trial going, knowing the outcome. So if Trump wants the Senate trial ASAP, and Pelosi is keeping that from him, then there's a chance he (not Mitch) will eventually cave and allow those witnesses/release documents/whatever to get the show on the road. This is, after all, the same guy that has done ... well, every stupid thing he has done. Releasing the Ukraine transcript is an apt one to start with, since he surely thought it would exonerate him rather than pull him in deeper.

So yeah, take your time, Pelosi. He's already been impeached, what's the hurry on the senate? Let him dangle.

it's gratifying to see anyone get under Trump's skin

this is a more understandable but thus far dubious equivalent to "owning the libs"

I don't think so. Dems have clear shots at several seats, others are bizarre toss-ups, etc. There's no way they get to 60 though.

oh, i didn't mean 60, i just meant 51

that's probably what you meant, though - even getting to 51 will be very difficult this year

no I meant 60, which is the gold standard. 51 is doable but if it happens it will be on very slim margins.

Pelosi will send articles to Senate the week before Super Tuesday if Biden is trailing in delegates

Sessions will get the nom but Trump hates him/considers him a traitor

This is still just the funniest shit on a number of levels. Sessions was the cool dad who looked the other way while the neighborhood kids drink at his house but because he wouldn't go buy them another case of Natty Light, Little Donnie called DCFS on him. He who lies with dogs, Jefferson. He who lies with dogs. I mean, you were already desperately in need of some Frontline, but you get my meaning, Captain Keebler.

And honestly I don't know how any of the republicans currently rimming the president could look at Sessions's (relative) fall from grace and fail to see that it would only take one terrible horrible no good very bad day for them to wind up on the wrong side of President Pissypants.

I think it helps that both the Democrats and the president seem to want a more traditional full-scale trial with witnesses, and McConnell is the one blocking this.

no I meant 60, which is the gold standard. 51 is doable but if it happens it will be on very slim margins.

― Οὖτις, Thursday, December 19, 2019

oh, gotcha. 60 isn't technically impossible, but...i'm not sure i've heard anyone anywhere talk about the possibility of even getting past 53, 54 democratic senate seats

considering what mitch has managed to do with 53, i would take anything we can get tho

yea I think Trump honestly believes he's innocent here and Dems need to push that as hard as they can

what's the point, all his supporters believe he's innocent too and further evidence/facts will not sway them

the only solution is to get him out of power, via an election, which is gong to be a brute force numbers/turnout game with no real "swing votes" in the middle.

actually having a real trial with multiple witnesses repeatedly saying "yes there was a quid pro quo and everyone knew it" might help in that regard

nah

they already did that and it didn't budge the numbers either way

I do think to the extent that he will most certainly get (somehow) crazier as this drags on, there will be more fuck-ups and probably crimes to enumerat. which might not help but certainly won't hurt.

enumerate!

presumably it'd be to motivate 2016 nonvoters

I still don't know how much to trust the numbers this far out but I'm pretty sure "this guy is corrupt as hell and if we take the House we can do something about it" was a good message for midterms

there will be more fuck-ups and probably crimes to enumerat.

crimes like publicly inviting foreign governments to interfere in the 2020 election are p much a foregone conclusion at this point

they should just keep impeaching him. nothing in the Constitution that says it can't happen more than once.

that'd 'play badly'

maybe take impeachment breaks when it's infrastructure week though

*wipes the optics off of eyeglasses*

I'm not gonna say that we're past the point where the increasingly-popular trend of rejecting observable reality might potentially be reversible buuuuuut it might be worth proceeding as if it were.

Need an update on the number of flushes Trump did today

I'd like a golfing update, too. Is he getting enough golf in these days?

Didn't he dial it back after his surprise routine physical?

hope he has a routine physical on live TV sometime soon

18 holes, 15 flushes, 5 children

I could visualize this better as a graph.

18 holes, 15 flushes, 5 children, 1 cup

dropping the kids off at the pool

he *will* need a TV show when this is over

if this is over

With all the holes on a golf course, he could alleviate the toilet problem.

he'd need pretty good aim and a very understanding caddy

As always (but even more so lately), I am trying to imagine anyone who did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016 - either because they voted for Clinton, or they didn't vote at all - observing Trump for three solid years, and opting to vote for him in 2020. I can't make the leap.

Some alt-right teenz who weren’t old enough to vote last time around, but yeah, it is hard to imagine otherwise. And the alt-right teenz are outweighed by cool left-leaning teenz, anyway.

was hearing some number-crunch prognosticator put his bottom-line reelection count at 47%

Of course, teens don’t vote because they’re busy with their Pokémon and vaping and premarital sex

As always (but even more so lately), I am trying to imagine anyone who did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016 - either because they voted for Clinton, or they didn't vote at all - observing Trump for three solid years, and opting to vote for him in 2020. I can't make the leap.

I agree and I think he's probably not going to win in 2020 but you've still got the incumbent advantage + the clear intent to solicit foreign meddling + next level voter suppression + the electoral college to worry about

i think the main issues wrt beating him are:

a) yeah: his popularity is low but the people who like him love him - he has a very energized base.
b) republican voters aren't going to vote for a democrat.

so he can do similarly well as how he did last time and if democrats have issues bringing out their voters again he can still win

Eh I could fathom some heretofore non-voters and maybe some initially squeamish Republicans—and I’m talking some real dumbasses here—who may have been inducted into the cult of trump since his election. but I’d imagine this is a tiny group of folks and would (hopefully) have no effect on the election. Like if you added all the op ed Never Trumpers to surviving McCain family members

I believe than young dumb people frequently replace dead dumb people

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