I swear I saw this headline a week or two ago. how many of these supposedly massive groups are there?
― Simon H., Thursday, 19 December 2019 14:34 (four years ago) link
enough to elect him, one hopes
― i chop up the orange and chomp on the inside of it (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 19 December 2019 14:37 (four years ago) link
I am sure Bernie hangs out with anti-semites because he 100% thinks they are fun and cool.
― Mazzy Tsar (PBKR), Thursday, 19 December 2019 16:08 (four years ago) link
I know there are some Nate Silver supporters in here
In general, candidates rising in the polls are overrated and candidates falling in the polls are underrated because people intuitively presume that there's "momentum" in polling when (simplifying a lot here) empirically polls are more like a random walk with some mean reversion.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 19, 2019
Can anyone translate this for me? His stuff is somewhat high level for me so I often don't get what it means
― anvil, Friday, 20 December 2019 09:25 (four years ago) link
'i provide useful information in the immediate runup to elections but i insist on commenting on political current affairs at all other times despite having little to add to the discourse'
― i chop up the orange and chomp on the inside of it (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 20 December 2019 09:36 (four years ago) link
It means he is panicking
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 09:53 (four years ago) link
Yes, that is definitely a thing that Nate Silver does.
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:03 (four years ago) link
That's the nerdy version of panicking.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:10 (four years ago) link
He is saying people read too much into small movements of polling instead of taking the long look. Like seeing a single poll giving Bernie 22% and saying he is surging.
― Frederik B, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:16 (four years ago) link
Or seeing that Warren was rising a point every two weeks, figuring out how many weeks were left until Iowa, then think that's how good she is likely to do. When she was always just as likely to stop plateauing or moving down instead. Polls move around a lot in primaries, often for short term reasons.
― Frederik B, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:18 (four years ago) link
Really obvious stuff in word salad xp
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:21 (four years ago) link
Yes. What an unprecedented crime to make a less than perfectly worded tweet.
― Frederik B, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:24 (four years ago) link
It's called panicking
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:30 (four years ago) link
Warren is now ~4 points ahead of Bernie in post-debate national polls. But that's not the only reason she's more likely to win the nomination. Her polling is much more robust than his overall, including stronger numbers in Iowa, more momentum, and better net favorability ratings. pic.twitter.com/fGtXEvkOM0— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 19, 2019
Thanks, Fred. I'm not great at reading Silver's stuff as, like you say, he's not a particularly clear writer. I think I misunderstand him on the role of momentum, and if its an important factor or not. Tweets probably not the best place for clarity though!
― anvil, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:38 (four years ago) link
You can draft tweets you know. Or put a good twitter thread in place and structure an argument.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 10:46 (four years ago) link
I think he has changed his mind a bit on 'momentum' since he made the primary model. Like, he was always a bit skeptic, but he seems much more so now. Like, I saw those two tweets collected and a tweeter going 'he is making it up as he goes along' and yes! It's exactly what he is doing! He is trying to model the primary while it's happening, and adjusting his predictions accordingly. That's what data journalism should be.
― Frederik B, Friday, 20 December 2019 12:19 (four years ago) link
On a recent podcast Nate said that because of data their punditry has improved from 90% bullshit to more like 60%. I feel a lot of people are trying to take him down for being 60% bullshit, but these people also believed there would be a hung parliament in the UK because a red telephone told them so. [Shrug]
― Frederik B, Friday, 20 December 2019 12:23 (four years ago) link
people WANTED to believe that. gun to their head, few would have made that their guess.
anyway, ten pinocchios for Bernie
Fact check from team @CNNPolitics: @BernieSanders spoke imprecisely when he said the world spends $1.8 trillion on weapons of destruction. "The $1.8 trillion figure represents all global military spending in 2018, not spending on weapons in particular." https://t.co/u3Ns7nOhtw pic.twitter.com/QwlCg0m3ad— Annie Grayer (@AnnieGrayerCNN) December 20, 2019
― Simon H., Friday, 20 December 2019 12:26 (four years ago) link
The red telephone thing was bananas. Everyone needs to be more vigilant about this stuff
― anvil, Friday, 20 December 2019 12:28 (four years ago) link
Believing in a guy saying bullshit % have decreased by 30%, will keep listening to podcasts and cheering on the new Star Wars, like a fool.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 12:30 (four years ago) link
Lol no one 'believed' the red telephone guy twitter to stop canvassing and campaigning.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 12:32 (four years ago) link
i would like to point out that i was otm in that thread when i pointed out that the red telephone was an mi5 psyop
― i chop up the orange and chomp on the inside of it (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 20 December 2019 12:34 (four years ago) link
i will now be bundled into an unmarked van and wake up in a shipping container somewhere in kabul
― i chop up the orange and chomp on the inside of it (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 20 December 2019 12:35 (four years ago) link
Man so good.
This is amazing. Please look at Peter Buttigieg's face when Bernie says he's a competitive guy and wishes him luck on catching up with Joe in the billionaire supporter contest. pic.twitter.com/Gjm4irhX9M— ššŖš½š½ š”š¾š«š²š· (@MtthewRubiin) December 20, 2019
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 13:49 (four years ago) link
that made me laugh so hard
― oncle rasĆ©longuebite (crĆ¼t), Friday, 20 December 2019 13:51 (four years ago) link
angry squirrel
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Friday, 20 December 2019 13:53 (four years ago) link
I was already leaning toward Bernie, but I think I'm there.
God I wish he was in his 60s even.
― Mazzy Tsar (PBKR), Friday, 20 December 2019 15:10 (four years ago) link
You should see my face when I look at Matt Rubin's face.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 20 December 2019 15:14 (four years ago) link
holding a fundraiser for bernie sanders in my jrpg cave. i present before him on one plate a playstation 2 and a copy of xenosaga, on another an xbox and a copy of gears of war. my eyes glisten in the torch light. the senator reaches for the ps2. i nod and sign the check— leon (@leyawn) December 20, 2019
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 20 December 2019 17:47 (four years ago) link
PBKR, you go to war with the altecocker you have...
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 December 2019 18:45 (four years ago) link
the squad
Cornel West giving pregame remarks at #BernieInVenice to an audience including Werner Herzog, Tim Robbins, Anderson Paak, Kim Gordon and Danny Devito is the whole tweet āš pic.twitter.com/KGo7egZ7yP— Medicare for All! (@WaywardWinifred) December 21, 2019
― Simon H., Sunday, 22 December 2019 18:00 (four years ago) link
I canāt wait for Herzog to make some āecstatic truthā ads for Bernie that make Glenn Kesslerās head explode.
― JoeStork, Sunday, 22 December 2019 18:18 (four years ago) link
.@AOC calling out the hypocrisy of the bloated military defense budget. "Budgets are moral documents... this campaign is about a radical realignment of our priorities in the United States." #BernieInVenice pic.twitter.com/apT2DYxNHg— Trinity Tran (@tran_scends) December 21, 2019
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 23 December 2019 23:15 (four years ago) link
Castro called out CNN for blatantly using old Bernie polling. Must be gunning for that veep slot
― Simon H., Tuesday, 24 December 2019 14:23 (four years ago) link
he's beeeeeen from jump. he's laid off bernie and liz and come after beto, buttigieg, biden. it's a really canny political pivot bc he could've just as easily gone establishment dem given his background, but once sanders and warren are retired/dead, he's still young enough that he can claim progressive bona fides in future presidential races and/or be a credible vp candidate with one of those two.
― peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Tuesday, 24 December 2019 14:30 (four years ago) link
Something interesting I didnāt know for the last day of Channukah: https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/3224239/jewish/Some-More-Info-on-Bernie-Sanders-and-Judaism-blog.htm
― Mordy, Monday, 30 December 2019 14:50 (four years ago) link
Thereās a video of him lighting with Chabad last night of fb that if I can figure out how to link Iāll post later
― Mordy, Monday, 30 December 2019 14:52 (four years ago) link
hopefully this works
https://www.facebook.com/100024757552869/videos/578299316338648/
― Mordy, Monday, 30 December 2019 15:06 (four years ago) link
more video here including bernie addressing the crowd briefly
Bernie Sanders is here to light a menorah at a āChanukah on Iceā event at Des Moines ice rink. Itās been scheduled a while, but itās less than 24 hours after an intruder stabbed 5 at a rabbi's home in the NYC suburb of Monsey during a Hanukkah celebration late Saturday night. pic.twitter.com/atEe4QpAjC— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) December 30, 2019
― Mordy, Monday, 30 December 2019 15:16 (four years ago) link
Over the past few years, Bernie Sanders supporters have called me the following names: pic.twitter.com/UYiQ2SBf2f— Jeremy Fassler (@J_fassler) January 2, 2020
― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 3 January 2020 00:43 (four years ago) link
relevant
― ingredience (map), Friday, 3 January 2020 00:50 (four years ago) link
hahahha
― k3vin k., Friday, 3 January 2020 00:50 (four years ago) link
I don't know who that is but lol at expecting outrage towards a candidate because his supporters called you "dumb" or "hack" on Twitter.
― Un sang impur (Sund4r), Friday, 3 January 2020 00:57 (four years ago) link
The vile Berners who are replying to this tweet with further harassment are proof that his supporters care more about "owning" their "enemies" than helping the causes Sanders cares about. At this point, there is little difference between them and MAGA idiots.— Jeremy Fassler (@J_fassler) January 2, 2020
― The Mandymoorian (Whiney G. Weingarten), Friday, 3 January 2020 00:58 (four years ago) link
jeremy fassler is leaving a voicemail with the manager
― ingredience (map), Friday, 3 January 2020 01:05 (four years ago) link
Fassler rightly notes that supporters of Amy Klochubar have not indulged in such ugly rhetoric against him.
― A is for (Aimless), Friday, 3 January 2020 01:40 (four years ago) link
they're more about throwing chairs
― ciderpress, Friday, 3 January 2020 01:44 (four years ago) link
Guys, just stop this. You're not helping anyone by making fun of a rando who is angry at being called a 'cunt' or a 'piece of shit'
― Frederik B, Friday, 3 January 2020 08:57 (four years ago) link
Things are certainly taking a darker turn but I don't see how we can force better standards of online discourse. We have seen on this very board just how far people can go with their words. At this point, one wonders what the end game is
― anvil, Friday, 3 January 2020 09:20 (four years ago) link
ā Frederik B, Friday, 3 January 2020 bookmarkflaglink
Yes let him be with his terrible opinions.
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 3 January 2020 10:21 (four years ago) link