bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

'only a strong hand on the tiller can rekindle the economy after the eu sabotaged it, a vote for labour is a vote for a socialist hellworld where your house will be claimed by the state'

The pound is going to bounce up and down as long as Johnson’s backers can make money speculating on currency.

― santa clause four (suzy), Tuesday, 17 December 2019 10:48 (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12546-pound-sterling-opens-on-front-foot-as-charts-point-to-gains-over-euro-and-dollar

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12550-pound-sterling-retreats-from-euro-dollar-and-spectre-of-new-no-deal-brexit-cliff-edge

It occurred to be the other day that a sitting UK government has only been ejected twice in the past FORTY YEARS and in both cases it's been after an economic disaster and subsequent house price crash. Otherwise the voters just favour the incumbent.

Love too be lectured by “moderates” how Corbyn Labour is too purist and ideological while they spend three years wrecking any chance of soft Brexit, pressured Labour to a position that turned off Leave voters, fucked away their votes on minor parties and ended up facilitating no deal.

Farage brexit night concession speech Forex market manipulation is the conspiracy theory I'm fully tinfoil hat for

So does Johnson roll back in six months to make his backers more money?

No redrawal of the electoral map will save the Tories if the economy collapses

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 17 December 2019 10:49 (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'd agree with this but also increasingly uncertain as to what will be recognised as "the economy collapsing" would be recognised in large media narratives, surely only the fortunes of billionaire corporations and especially the financial institutions are recognised now as "the economy" in this way? The fortunes of workers and small and even medium-sized businesses are already completely disregarded as metrics for a functioning economy by the msm/government

It's the point where the media narrative can't outweigh what people feel in their pockets, and that particularly includes middle class swing voters suddenly feeling the pinch. Tory policy since 2010 has been to insulate these people from the worst aspects of the financial crisis and its aftermath, but eventually there comes a point where you can't defy gravity forever. So far they've avoided a 1992 moment but they may charge straight into one with these clowns in charge.

What about a housing crash? Inflation? Medicine scarcity?

I am actually not trying to go lol we're going to die, and it could all be day 5 strongman stuff that doesn't actually play out. Not all of these things may happen but some of them will introduce chaos if it isn't handled properly. Which is pretty much the only thing I am certain of xp

Obviously they have to trust the opposition to be able to lead them out of the mire as well, which is a big reason why Corbyn didn't succeed despite the government's multiple calamities.

Last time it was interest rate rises. Reckon homeowners are in for some of that?

It's the point where the media narrative can't outweigh what people feel in their pockets, and that particularly includes middle class swing voters suddenly feeling the pinch. Tory policy since 2010 has been to insulate these people from the worst aspects of the financial crisis and its aftermath, but eventually there comes a point where you can't defy gravity forever. So far they've avoided a 1992 moment but they may charge straight into one with these clowns in charge.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, 17 December 2019 11:09 (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Is this true though? A big narrative about financial arguments for remain is that they were ignored by many whose fortunes were simply no better prior to 2008* yet the crash itself was a global news spectacle.

*Not agreeing with this fairly fatuous framing which has had a lot of currency, not least because it should be obvious that market jolts are rarely felt in direct cause and effect terms by ordinary people regardless of ripples.

To be clear I'm not trying to undermine your main point or to stupidly accuse a single post of inadequate nuance, just wondering about ways to expand on it.

Everyone seems to think that John Major became a weakened laughing stock partly because of the sheer swinging-dick brilliance of Tony Blair and partly because of "divided over Europe", but it was actually Black Wednesday and 15% base rate.

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) December 16, 2019

From The Guardian:

Does this raise the risk of a no-deal exit on 31 December 2020?
Probably. Johnson could perform a U-turn at any point up to 1 July, when an extension needs to be agreed, but he is not expected to do so. If, in the coming negotiation, the British government refuses to sign up to the EU’s full level playing field demands on issues such as state aid and environmental standards, there will be a protracted negotiation over the level of tariffs on UK goods. If the tariffs are deemed to be overly punitive, the UK side might judge there to be little to gain in continuing to talk at all given the EU is offering nothing for the City of London. But some sort of deal, albeit bare bones, remains the most likely outcome

---

People are sure to get fucked but it's about containing the fire. They are definitely playing with it.

Last time it was interest rate rises. Reckon homeowners are in for some of that?

― santa clause four (suzy), Tuesday, 17 December 2019 11:15 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Tories have already been accusing Carney of brexit wrecking with BOE forecast pessimism. Surely no guarantee they wouldn't expand the BBC/judiciary threats to also remove bank of England independence and put the treasury in control of interest rates

?

I'm not talking about those who were fucked pre-2008, I'm talking about people with reasonably comfortable lives who have the potential to vote against the Tories in revenge if they feel the government has hurt them. Dire warnings are just that, dire warnings, people don't have to believe them, whereas they do believe the reality when it hits them personally.

I'd dispute that even the group you're talking about was *no better* prior to 2008 because it's the group that's been hardest hit by austerity.

No I fully agree re your last point, that's what I was trying to say with my caveat. Rather was trying to flag up how such a nonsense narrative can still maintain common-sense media dominance. I guess my main point is that I'm skeptical about relying on cause and effect responses from voters. Look at the absolute state of the place in 2019 yet here we are

Wait actually might have misread your last post, I'll get back to you

Could you actually unpack that point a little bit more because I'm not sure I follow you and I'm interested

We could start with "many whose fortunes were simply no better prior to 2008" - who would it be that you're talking about here?

No matter how shit your lives were in the New Labour Golden Age, the chances are they're worse now because of austerity/increasingly punitive welfare policies + the evaporation of many of the jobs that did exist. The people who were in the worst position prior to the crash have been hit twice over, perhaps more.

Whereas the lives of a lot of people who were already prosperous prior to 08-10 have not got markedly worse and that's what's kept the Tories in power and powered some of the Leave vote. A lot of people just don't believe it when you warn of dire consequences, or they don't believe those dire consequences will affect them. Doesn't mean they won't punish the government when they happen, *especially* when the government has been bullshitting them and telling them everything will be alright.

As an aside, has there been any election where the economy has been *less* of an issue? Because it was an area where both the main parties were weak and preferred not to draw too much attention to it.

Cameron's policy was entirely about the affluent moving to insulate themselves from the worst impact of the financial crisis by shifting the cost of paying for it onto the poor.

There was one Tuesday afternoon where we all on this thread got very excited about labour selling itself as the party of business and this still feels like a missed opportunity to me

Idk, maybe you should have backed a Labour Party who were pledging to teach colonial history properly in British schools at long last, as well as conducting an audit of the legacy of empire - rather than the Lib Dems, who were proposing to do neither pic.twitter.com/caEgPQhEuO

— Dan Hancox (@danhancox) December 16, 2019

Desperately full of shit Dan

not meaning the fantastic connoisseur of obscure condiments Dan H obv

Calz, did you ever see any of those (may have been leave.eu) posters with a red, angry Corbyn pictured, denouncing him for being anti-patriotic etc etc?

No I didn't see that - probably not being on FB reduces the odds of seeing this stuff.

This thing with melts who virulently campaigned against Corbyn talking about wrongs that Labour wanted to address, and weren't in the LibDem manifesto is infuriating,

How patriotic was the Lib Dem manifesto anyway?

No, these were street posters - I’ll trawl Twitter to see if I can find examples.

wait a sec.. what? this was Dan Snow denouncing Corbyn on the posters?

No, these were apparently EVERYWHERE in towns on or just before Election Day:

This is how Tories In Hastings Depicted @jeremycorbyn Whilst Standing a candidate who Has 2 ongoing Investigations against them One For ANTISEMITISM The Other ISLAMOPHOBIA and she won the seat https://t.co/te9Ztr1XnQ Time to sue I Reckon @jeremycorbyn pic.twitter.com/XayAvBcgGw

— Controversialink #JC4PM #IStandWithChrisWilliamson (@Controversialnk) December 16, 2019

i feel like boris would be much more likely to try and fuck my kids tbrr

obv they didn't hire M+C Saatchi for that subtle work!

a bit of a confused imperial japan look to that one

Soz about the Williamson stan share btw, there’s a far better report in the Northants local press saying there were loads of signs up in Northampton and Corby.

dictates their education

Dictates their letters.

The economy impact is likely more nuanced than in 1997 because of the now marked divide in age of Tory voters vs the rest. If you own your house outright and you are well past retirement as most of their core vote is, you are fairly well insulated from mortgage rates, wages, rates, all the usual economic levers.

For a crash to hurt the Tories now it’d have to hit pension income in a substantial way, or so destroy the housing market that people couldn’t easily sell up or secure loans on their outright-owned properties.

There were loads of those posters on the way back from Gatwick - without a Tory imprint, which I’m not sure if legal if they were the ones paying for it. A bunch look like they were nailed up in the middle of nowhere, not on advertising hoardings. I’d guess they’re not official Conservative ones. It comes back to the question of why they spent such little money in the election - partly because other people were spending it for them.

I can’t find the exact tweet (thought it was Stephen Bush) but he tweeted something about home ownership in the 1992 election that shocked me: that half of 30 year olds in 1992 owned homes.

In 1991, more 25-to-34-year-olds owned a house than not. Less than 25 years later, the rate of home ownership in the age group had fallen to 35.8pc — as houses become more expensive, would-be buyers have to wait longer to save up the money.

A property crash would certainly help first-time buyers!

Not if people aren’t selling though?

As we learnt from the election it's where a lot of people are situated. If the people not suffering are in 300 constituencies and the people who are is of a lesser number then it won't necessarily matter.

And ofc that's not older people too. A significant number did benefit from New Lab. They own homes even if they haven't fully paid them off. They've already voted for useless shit like Libs or Green. The likes of RLA might not win them back as it was pretty much about policy rather than racism or the return of communism that scared them.

It's a delay of the inevitable but that moment could last most of the rest of our lives. Things that could shorten this are horrible things :-(

re: older people. Would a change in tariffs mean the cost of goods, and therefore living, going up. Something must hit those older cunts?

*RL-B

Something must hit those older cunts?

Nice solid length of 2x4 should do it

I’m willing to throw a guess that people on a family income of 60-70k in the Midlands and the North still find buying fairly easy in towns where homes are under £200k so they’re all right, Jack. Also the Northern golf Nazi vote is very solid and did not need huge numbers of Thatcherbabies to join it to achieve the result.