Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

The odds of the Libs winning the most seats has been around 60% on Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker for most of the campaign, actually. The Libs and Tories have been closer to being neck and neck when it comes to absolute popular vote numbers.

I don't think anyone is going to hate you for voting Liberal in a Liberal/Tory swing riding, clemenza. I would probably do the same if I lived in Nepean or Orleans. The Liberals have done a number of things right imo: the carbon tax, reduction of child poverty with the child benefit, relatively liberal policies on immigration and refugee resettlement. They'd definitely be preferable to any kind of Tory government.

I am probably following things less than any of you, but the Conservative losses and NDP gains being portrayed in the media in just the past few days feel encouraging. it's also odd how the two feel like separate phenomena (most Conservative losses are probably actually Liberal gains.... if there's anything to any of this noise)

Hard to be sure. West of London, ON, the contest can actually be between the Tories and NDP.

So losses from one might end up being gains for the other.

I'm in London, ON in a solidly, but not secure, Liberal riding. I voted Liberal.

I voted Liberal because I think Steven Guilbeault has a better chance of beating the BQ candidate. I may regret it tomorrow.

Why would you regret that? Because of possible vote-splitting with the NDP candidate?

Precisely. I'd much rather the NDP got reelected, but I'm betting that won't happen, alas.

Oh, there's an NDP incumbent? That does sound tricky.

The incumbent, Hélène Laverdière, announced her retirement, so the NDP's substitute candidate is Nimâ Machouf, who doesn't appear to have gained much traction compared to her BQ rival Michel Duchesne. I hope to be proven wrong.

My riding is still >99% liberal according to 338canada.com. I'm gonna vote Green.

if I lived in Nepean

Incidentally, FB shared with me an ad from the Tory candidate in this suburban riding, which just seemed so quintessentially suburban Ontario in its perspective and priorities: from memory, "while Justin Trudeau is spending your money on overseas projects, Nepean residents are stuck in traffic". I'm sure Scheer will fix that.

Debating whether to do the Jagmeet jump, provided no one is looking.

dude no campaigning at the polling station

https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/don-t-blame-me-i-voted-ndp.png

Good luck to us. I’m anticipating a minority govt so I am not nearly as nervous as in 2015.

I'm more nervous i think. i may be misremembering but wasn't trudeau front-runner on election day last time? i seem to recall being like "oh well the ndp aren't going to do as well (this ended up being an underestimation)* as hope but least we're prob done with harper".

*mulcair had gone into the campaign as the front-runner in polls, election was a bloodbath for the ndp.

yeah Trudeau was definitely considered the front-runner in the days before election day and the eventual majority was predicted by several polls iirc. This time it feels like just slightly bad polling or small movements in voting intentions could make a significant difference in the final result.

many xps- coyne's level of trudeau-hatred is ridiculous imho. but i do value his extremely idiosyncratic contrarianism as discourse

god I hate the strategic voting campaign so much this time

or rather the messaging. I see so many people just saying Vote Liberal with no thought to the situation in individual ridings, and heard an ad for the Liberals where they lifted strategic voting language pretty shamelessly.

Vote strategically for the Liberals by voting strategically for the Liberals.

Yeah, he's definitely idiosyncratic and contrarian but I appreciate his mix of strong, consistent principles and total lack of any partisan allegiance to anyone. (He hated Harper at least as much as Trudeau; I've seen a right-winger 'blame' him for bringing down Harper. The National Post comments section typically seems to regard him as a Liberal shill, incredibly.) He probably IS the 19th century British liberal that Jordan Peterson claims to be and is as consistently supportive of civil liberties as he is brutally pro-free market on economic issues (which is actually part of why he loves the carbon tax, a market-based solution to clinate change). xp to flopson wrt Coyne

when someone talks about balancing the budget thats when i reach for my revolver

I don't agree with Coyne at all on economics but I do find him interesting to read, as a columnist (thankfully not a politician) with actual economics training - he freely acknowledges that even permanent deficits within reason wouldn't be any kind of disaster; he just opposes them on grounds of ideological principle: https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinion/national-perspectives/andrew-coyne-no-permanent-deficits-wouldnt-kill-us-that-doesnt-make-them-a-good-idea-358651/

We do not deserve the Maritimes.

hey now with the Newfoundland-exclusionary language

And you with the Labrador haha

We do not deserve anything east of Gaspésie.

yeah I was hoping you'd catch that. o Canada n stuff everybody :D

Atlantic Canada p much always goes Liberal federally iirc? About as reliably as the Tories picking up a lot of the Prairies?

I know but in these times what is certain anymore? Right wing populism is a bit hard to predict.

Don't fuck this up, Central Canada.

I'm actually p excited about this Green lead in Fredericton. Hope they pick it up.

i'm so confused, who is winning

Looks like Liberal minority?

Radio-Canada just predicted a Liberal government, didn't say majority or minority but former seems unlikely to me. This is the ideal outcome tbh.

Yeah minority looks certain. Oh, cbc decision desk just announced that

best possible (realistic) outcome tbh

My hope is that the Lib/NDP total seats is greater than 170 so we can have a stable left-leaning minority. Looks like they’re on pace to pull it off. Close tho.

Eat it, Bernier

Breaking 170 is looking likely, esp if you throw in the Greens.

would have liked to see a few more ndp seats...

NDP not having a good showing but still has the balance of power. Lisa Raitt and Goodale both losing their seats (probably). One more seat than I expected for the Greens.

Also lol @ “mad max”

What a sack of shit you are max

Too early to call for Goodale really.

If we carved out the large stretch of land including Nunavut, northern Manitoba, and northern Ontario, we could orm a social democratic republic. Maybe we should all move there and separate. Weather might be better on Pacific coast, though.

xps yeah, I expect Goodale to pull through.

Ok. Goodale was destroyed! Hope some ridings in BC turn so dramatically from the liberals - to ndp. Ie. Van centre

Theres no way van centre, van granville, or burnaby north seymour are going to go ndp imo. Van granville looking to go Tory even

Oh Jody Wilson-Raybould is ahead now

I am sad about svend